Oddsmakers traditionally give “hometown” fighters the benefit of the doubt when setting MMA betting lines and Saturday’s UFC 161 in Winnipeg follows this tradition.
Seven Canadians grace the card and six of them are favorites, according to the UFC 161 odds comparisons at OddsShark.com.
Only Mitch Clarke, who was 9-0 entering the UFC and 0-2 since getting there, is an underdog among Canuck scrappers. He is a +200 (2/1) dog against England’s John Maguire, who is also riding a two-fight losing skid in the UFC.
Light heavyweight Ryan Jimmo is favoured to rebound from his first loss in 18 fights (vs. James Tehuna) and he was moved to the main card. The Saint John native was listed at -250 against fellow slugger Igor Pokrajac (+210).
And the ladies return to the UFC with Rosi Sexton tangling with Port Colborne, Ont.’s Alexis Davis. After consecutive submission wins in the Invicta promotion, Davis is a huge -385 favorite against the 13-2 Sexton, who comes in with a three-fight win streak under the Cage Warriors banner.
Before the PPV action gets rolling, Sam Stout was -245 earlier this week to defeat James Krause. The American underdog makes his Octagon debut as a +175 underdog and he brings an eight-fight win streak to the MTS Centre.
Montreal’s Yves Jabouin is -350 against Dustin Pague while Roland Delorme – the only true hometown fighter – is -190 to defeat Edwin Figueroa.
Toronto’s Sean Pierson, 2-0 since a two-fight losing skid against top-notch fighters Jake Ellenberger and Dong Hyun Kim, is -165 against Kenny Robertson, an all-action American who has gone the distance just twice in 14 fights.
The main event pits Rashad Evans against Dan Henderson in a battle that features plenty of brand appeal. But some question whether the action will match the hype.
“Both guys are coming off uninspiring decision losses at a time when they really need dynamic victories to chase a title shot,” said Jimmy Jackson, a UFC analyst at BestUFCOdds.com. Evans was listed as a slight favourite over Hendo (-125 to -105).
Longtime middleweight contender Jake Shields is in tough against former Strikeforce contender Tyron Woodley, who demolished Jay Hieron in 36 seconds in his last fight. Woodley is -175, while Shields is +155 and could be in early peril if his robotic stand-up game has not improved.
Roy Nelson is favoured against Stipe Miocic in what could be the best underdog bet of the night. Big Country has finished in his last three foes in the first round, but he fought just three weeks ago. Can he handle a dynamic athlete like Miocic, who hasn’t fought since a September loss to Stefan Struve? Miocic is +220, while oddsmakers apparently aren’t worried about Nelson getting fatigued when his fights only last two minutes. Nelson is -260 chalk.
And heavyweights round out (literally) the PPV card when haymaker-throwing Pat Barry faces former college football stud Shawn Jordan. This fight would get boring if it lasts beyond the two-minute mark, as neither man boasts tremendous cardio nor a history of long fights.
Fortunately for fight fans hoping for knockouts, this one will probably be over before two minutes, although it’s anybody’s guess who will land first.
Full UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson betting odds
Yves Jabouin -350
Dustin Pague +250
John Maguire -280
Mitch Clarke +200
Edwin Figueroa +150
Roland Delorme -190
Kenny Robertson +125
Sean Pierson -165
Igor Pokrajac +210
Ryan Jimmo -250
Sam Stout -245
James Krause +175
Jake Shields +155
Tyron Woodley -175
Pat Barry -120
Shawn Jordan +100
Rosi Sexton 315
Alexis Davis -380
Roy Nelson -260
Stipe Miocic +220
Rashad Evans -125
Dan Henderson +105
