The UFC makes its fourth trip to Toronto this weekend as UFC 165 invades the Air Canada Centre on Saturday night with UFC light-heavyweight champion Jon Jones headlining a card in the T-dot for the third time.
Jones takes on Alexander Gustafsson for the 205-pound strap and there’s also a rare second title fight on the card as UFC interim bantamweight champion Renan Barao makes his second title defence against Eddie Wineland.
Watch the UFC 165 preliminary card Saturday with four fights on sportsnet.ca starting at 6:00 p.m. ET / 3:00 p.m. PT then four additional bouts on Sportsnet 360 at 8:00 p.m. ET / 5:00 p.m. PT – Broadcast Schedule
In addition to the two title fights, there are three more awesome matchups scheduled for the main card, so without further ado here’s a breakdown of all five fights, including thoughts from UFC Central host Showdown Joe Ferraro.
Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson
The UFC light-heavyweight championship is up for grabs in the main event of UFC 165 as pound-for-pound kingpin Jones takes on his tallest challenger to date in the form of Swede Gustafsson.
Jones is about a 10-to-1 favorite in this fight and it’s for good reason as he is an absolute beast and it remains to be seen if he has any holes in his game at all.
Although Gustafsson is a legit contender and deserving of a shot at the belt, he really doesn’t have a way to beat Jones outside of a fluke one-punch KO or an in-fight injury to Jones.
I see the champ putting a beating on the challenger in this one as he wins the fight by submission somewhere in the middle rounds to break Tito Ortiz’ record for 205-pound title defences.
Prediction: Jones via submission
Showdown’s take… “While I do give the edge to Jon in this bout, Alexander can pull this off. But he has to have the perfect game plan for what could be five rounds. He has to work within the space where he isn’t too close to Jones (so he won’t be taken down) and not too far away (where Jonny can use his reach). Gustafsson has to be in and out — hit, connect and move away with good angles. He does not have to KO or submit “Bones.” He just has to win three of the five rounds.
Renan Barao vs. Eddie Wineland
The UFC interim bantamweight championship is on the line in the co-main event of the evening in a match between reigning titleholder Barao and top contender Wineland
Barao hasn’t lost in 31-straight fights and he’s shown during his UFC tenure that he is one of the most well-rounded, dangerous fighters in the entire sport with his wins over of Michael McDonald, Urijah Faber, Brad Pickett and Scott Jorgensen. Simply put, this guy is an absolute stud and it’s always a treat to watch him fight.
That being said, Wineland will give him a hell of a fight as the Indiana native is a very tough and durable competitor with massive power in his hands. In a sport where the athletes only wear four-once gloves, Wineland definitely has a puncher’s chance here, but that’s about it.
Look for Barao to bully Wineland around the cage for a few rounds before he takes his opponent to the ground in the later rounds and submits him to once again defend the interim bantamweight title.
Prediction: Barao via submission
Showdown’s take… Eddie has that one-punch power at 135 pounds that can stun Barao into making a mistake. But Renan is riding a 31-fight unbeaten streak for a reason. He is a fantastic, underrated and underappreciated champion. I believe his Muay Thai will be the difference in this fight.
Matt Mitrione vs. Brendan Schaub
A heavyweight fight between friends-turned-rivals is set to go down this weekend as former NFLers and TUF 10 alumni Mitrione and Schaub will go to war in a bout that will not go the distance.
If Schaub can get the takedowns, he could make things interesting as Mitrione has more or less looked lost on the ground, but I don’t think he will be able to get “Meathead” down easily and I see this fight mostly playing out on the feet.
In this matchup between two extremely big and powerful men, someone is getting knocked out here and since Schaub has the weaker chin of the two, I definitely favour Mitrione in a fire fight.
Prediction: Mitrione via KO
Showdown’s take… The power edge goes to Mitrione. If he lands his cross and his combinations, Schaub could be in big trouble. But if Brendan can dictate the pace, Mitrione may not be able to match it for the full 15 minutes.
Francis Carmont vs. Costa Philippou
A middleweight bout between two fighters on five-fight win streaks in the UFC takes place on the main card as Tristar Gym’s Carmont takes on Philippou in one of the most competitive fights on the whole card.
Although Carmont’s last two decision victories were questionable, the important thing is he got the wins over Tom Lawlor and Lorenz Larkin and what that shows me is that the judges like his wrestling-heavy style.
With that being said, Philippou could be the guy to stop Carmont’s rise as his takedown defence is impeccable and he is the more powerful striker of the two for sure. So if he can keep the fight standing and land his punches, he will win.
But I think Carmont can push Philippou against the fence for three rounds and sneak in some late takedowns and steal a close decision – just like he always does.
Prediction: Carmont via decision
Showdown’s take… There’s a lot at stake here for Costa. He’s protecting his top10 ranking versus a fighter who is trying to break through. The American should have the edge here, but based on what I’ve been told, we have yet to see the best from Francis. If we see it, he should win. But if he’s the same fighter we saw in his last two fights, he could be in big trouble at the ACC.
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Pat Healy
The 20-0 Nurmagomedov puts his undefeated streak on the line when he takes on durable veteran Healy in the opening main card matchup at UFC 165.
Although Healy had a tremendous performance against a solid wrestler in Jim Miller back at UFC 159, Nurmagomedov is a different kind of beast and I don’t believe that Healy will be able stop the Russian’s takedowns.
I think Nurmagomedov is going to absolutely trash Healy in this spot and even though “Bam Bam” is tough as nails, I believe that “The Eagle” will finish him as he continues his march up the lightweight ladder.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov via TKO
Showdown’s take… What a solid fight to kick off the pay per view. Expect this one to get ugly the moment the referee steps out of the way. There’s bad blood here, and most times, it spills over quickly. Can Khabib deal with the veteran’s persistence? Or will the rising lightweight prospect send “Bam Bam” home with his tail between his legs? It’s a tough call, but either way, I cannot wait for this one to go down.
