The Rory MacDonald hype train left the station years ago with a full head of steam and never hit the brakes as the Kelowna welterweight rolled to a 14-1 record.
But the Rory MacDonald reality train has had one full whistle stop and is now getting backed into the nearest station by another locomotive named Jake Ellenberger.
MacDonald finished his first 10 fights, many in devastating fashion, as he was proclaimed the future of the UFC. But then a late upset loss to Carlos Condit at UFC 115 derailed his momentum.
Despite a four-fight win streak, the quality of his competition in those scraps has made MMA bettors very nervous as they see him listed as a -240 favourite at most sportsbooks tracked by OddsShark.com.
“Sorry to be the naysayer with your hometown boy, but I see MacDonald getting stopped in this fight,” said Jack Randall of OddsShark.com. “And as a +190 underdog, we are all over Ellenberger in this one.”
Watch over five hours of UFC on Sportsnet: Johnson vs. Moraga live on Sportsnet 360 starting at 5pm ET / 2pm PT Saturday, July 27, plus two early prelims on sportsnet.ca starting at 4pm ET / 1pm PT
MacDonald decisioned Nate Diaz and battered (and disrespected) an aging B.J. Penn for another decision since the Condit loss. In between, he stopped scrappy Brit Che Mills and wily vet Mike Pyle – hardly a who’s who of welterweight contenders.
Ellenberger, meanwhile, has been in with Martin Kampmann, Jake Shields, Nate Marquardt and Diego Sanchez within the last two years. He recently said Rory made a big mistake in agreeing to fight him and promised him some “horizontal TV time.”
“If Rory doesn’t get the fight to the ground quickly, Ellenberger will swarm him, just like he did to Marquardt and Shields,” predicts Randall. “Rory was losing to Mills before throwing him down and pounding him out at UFC 145.”
The headliner of UFC on Sportsnet: Johnson vs. Moraga is the flyweight championship fight between champ Demetrious Johnson (17-2-1) and John Moraga (13-1). The champ is a big -470 favourite but some fans are betting the ‘decision’ prop as Johnson’s past seven fights all went the distance.
Two fights involving women grace the Saturday night card at KeyArena in Seattle. Liz Carmouche, who battled champ Ronda Rousey in her last outing, faces Jessica Andrade as a huge -600 favourite, while Germaine de Randamie is a slight favourite against Julie Kedzie.
Another important fight – at least for their UFC job security – is popular Melvin Guillard’s scrap with veteran Mac Danzig. Danzig has lost six of nine and eight of 11, but he has rebounded with a victory the past three times he lost.
If Guillard gets sloppy, which he usually does, Danzig could pay off as a small underdog again. Guillard has lost four of five and is quickly losing relevance in the stacked 155-pound division.
Here are the complete odds (courtesy of BestUFCOdds.com) for UFC on Sportsnet: Johnson vs. Moraga:
John Albert -270
Yaotzin Meza +210
Aaron Riley +195
Justin Salas -250
Ed Herman -260
Trevor Smith +200
Germaine de Randamie -125
Julie Kedzie -105
Yves Edwards +105
Darron Cruickshank -135
Danny Castillo -225
Tim Means +175
Mac Danzig -105
Melvin Guillard -125
Jorge Masvidal -275
Mike Chiesa +215
Bobby Voelker +230
Robbie Lawlor -300
Liz Carmouche -600
Jessica Andrade +400
Jake Ellenberger +190
Rory MacDonald -240
Demetrious Johnson -500
John Moraga +350
