By Dwight Wakabayashi
Here is a complete breakdown of Saturday’s UFC on FOX 6: Johnson vs. Dodson main card, in order of the first of the four fights to the main event, the flyweight title bout between champion Demetrious Johnson and John Dodson.
Watch UFC on Sportsnet: Johnson vs. Dodson Saturday on Sportsnet ONE at 5 p.m. ET. One bonus early prelim will air on Sportsnet.ca at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Erik Koch (13-1) vs. Ricardo Lamas (12-2) – featherweight
This is an elite-level scrap that has flown completely under the radar leading up to the FOX kickoff show, but make no mistake the stakes are high in this one. Both these fighters are on a current climb up the featherweight ranks and whomever takes this one could get a title shot before the end of the year.
Koch is more highly touted but he is returning after over a year on the sidelines due to injury and may take a little while to shake off the rust. The layoff cost him a couple of big opportunities, a fight against Dustin Poirier and even a shot at the champ himself, and Koch will not want to let this one slip away to Lamas. Koch is an excellent wrestler and grappler at his base and the Duke Roufus student has improved his striking game as well. He is loaded with an arsenal no matter where this fight goes and the key will be how long it takes him to get the feel back.
It is a bit of a surprise to see Lamas be in this position so quickly but mild upset wins over Cub Swanson and Hatsu Hioki say that he is real and ready. Lamas is a buzzsaw style fighter with a wrestling base, and he used that skill to the fullest in his most recent win. He has a never-say-die attitude that will only be enhanced by the fact that he is fighting in his hometown in this one. He can also throw some very dangerous strikes when you least expect it and Koch will have to be mindful of that all night.
I don’t think Lamas will surprise anyone anymore and this will be a very tight test of contrition with the bigger heart winning the fight.
Anthony Pettis (15-2) vs. Donald Cerrone (19-4) – lightweight
These two have been on a crash course to fight for quite some time now and I have not been this excited to see a fight in a while. I have this one pegged as an early favourite for Fight of the Year.
Anthony Pettis has been waiting patiently to get his chance to beat Benson Henderson, and the UFC is making him earn it in a big way by going through Cerrone. Pettis is coming off a beautiful head-kick victory over Joe Lauzon in February 2012, but he spent the remainder of the year healing up from injuries. He has only had three fights in the UFC since he was secured in 2010 and inactivity could be a factor in this fight. Pettis is one of the most dynamic and accurate kickers in the game and must be on point right away. He can change levels like no one else, and his submission game is adequate as well. If he can utilize his entire arsenal, I think he will be too much for The Cowboy to handle.
Once again Cerrone finds himself one step away from a shot at the title and he missed his last chance when he lost badly to Nate Diaz. Cerrone needs to seize this second chance as there is a large line of men behind him waiting to jump over him. Cerrone bounced back off the Diaz loss nicely, beating Jeremy Stephens and then electrifying fans in his win over Melvin Guillard. Cerrone’s game is never the issue, it is his mindset that can sometimes get him off track. Cerrone, like Pettis has an elite all-around game, but I think he will want to take this one to his strengths on the mat. He has a better chance if he gets in to a grappling battle as opposed to a striking battle. His low kicks are as good as Pettis’s but he can’t change levels like he can.
I think Pettis is the hungrier fighter and will edge out Cerrone in an epic battle to set up a fight with the winner of Henderson-Melendez.
Quinton Jackson (32-10) vs. Glover Teixeira (19-2) – light heavyweight
We will get to see if “Rampage” has one more quality show in him before he makes his exit out of the UFC after his fight with up-and-comer Glover Teixeira. Jackson has made it known that he is ready to leave the UFC behind after he fulfills his obligation of the final fight on his contract and he gets the perfect opponent to go out with.
Rampage has always complained about guys not wanting to bang with him and he won’t have to worry with Glover. The UFC has this one pegged as a passing of the puncher’s torch, but I’m not too sure Glover is experienced enough to get it done. Rampage is still very dangerous when healthy and motivated but all indications leading up to this fight say that he is nowhere near as focused as he should be. It will be interesting to see what type of Jackson shows up and let’s hope he doesn’t go through the motions or take an early exit this weekend.
Teixeira has come into the UFC with a big bang with two exciting and impressive wins over Kyle Kingsbury and Fabio Maldonado. Neither one of those fighters is at the level of a healthy, trained Jackson so this is a big step-up for the Brazilian. He has a lot of hype behind him right now and if he can knock Rampage out the hype train will be unstoppable.
The question is whether Glover will want to test his mettle and trade with Jackson to make a statement, or whether he will take a more cerebral approach and take this one to the ground. The fans may not like it if it happens, but Teixeira has a competent jiu-jitsu game and could probably get an easier win that way.
I just don’t think Rampage is in the right head space to go out with a win.
Demetrious Johnson (16-2-1) vs. John Dodson (14-5) – flyweight title
You can try to soak in all the nuances of this fight when you watch it, but something tells me you are going to have to PVR and slow it down to really appreciate what these two fighters are about.
Demetrious Johnson is simply the quickest and most elusive fighter in the game today at any weight class and you can’t hit what you can’t catch. He made Joseph Benavidez look slow in his title win and used his incredible footwork and anticipation to remain invisible all fight long. He stays close enough to get his offence in and get out, and his wrestling is second to none. He can get a takedown or a strike on you at the blink of an eye, and will mix it up beautifully to keep his opponent off balance. He very rarely gets hit with anything significant.
Dodson, the winner of The Ultimate Fighter 14, is a very similar fighter who earned this shot with a nice TKO win over Jussier Formiga in October. Dodson bobs and weaves around the cage with a similar style and speed to Johnson, but I do think he has a bit more pop in his hands and feet. If there is anyone who is fast enough to land something solid on the champ it is Dodson, and he should try and be the counter fighter.
Dodson must go out and take the title but chasing and initiating at all costs plays right into the hands of Johnson’s strengths, and many have failed with that approach. Dodson may want to take the first round of the five to see if the champ will initiate first as his blueprint to victory.
Like Johnson-Benavidez, this one could be perceived as electric, or extremely disappointing, depending on what you fancy. I fancy it all, and certainly won’t miss this one.
Dwight Wakabayashi is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report UFC and regular contributor to Sportsnet.ca’s UFC section. Follow him on Twitter @wakafightermma.