Bellator 85 predictions: New year, new home

Bellator lightweight champion Michael Chandler. (Eric Coleman/CP)

By Ryan Young

For the first time since Michael Bisping put a beating on a sluggish Jason (Mayhem) Miller at the UFC Season 14 Ultimate Fighter Finale in December 2011, a live mixed martial arts bout will air on Spike TV.

Yes, at long last Bellator MMA will grace the airwaves of the network that gave the UFC its first shot on cable television when Bellator 85 takes place at the Bren Events Center in Irvine, Calif., on Thursday at 10 p.m. ET.

The promotion is wasting little time introducing its star fighters to potential new viewers as both lightweight champion Michael Chandler and featherweight title-holder Pat Curran will be defending their belts on opening night against Rick Hawn and Patricio (Pitbull) Friere, respectively.

Also helping to kick-start Bellator’s run on Spike TV is the beginning of the Season 8 light-heavyweight tournament featuring former UFC combatants Renato (Babalu) Sobral and Seth Petruzelli.

With that in mind, here is a look at the three-fight main card, complete with predictions.

Main Event

Lightweight championship bout (155-pounds)

Michael Chandler (10-0, 7-0 Bellator) vs. Rick “Genghis” Hawn (14-1, 6-1 Bellator)

I don’t think Bellator could put a better or more appropriate fight together for its first main event on Spike TV.

Chandler, 26, has been one of Bellator’s breakthrough talents since debuting a little more than two years ago. The former University of Missouri wrestler and Alliance MMA team member stormed through the Season 4 lightweight tournament before submitting Eddie Alvarez to win the belt in one of 2012’s fights of the year. Add in his 56-second non-title beat down of Akihiro Gono in May and it appears Chandler has totally figured out this MMA thing just three-and-a-half years into his career.

Although his opponent is 10 years his elder, the 36-year-old Hawn has been competing in the sport for an even shorter period of time. A 2004 Olympian in judo, he turned to MMA after failing to qualify for the 2008 Olympics. He debuted in January 2009 and ran off 11 straight wins before losing a split decision to Jay Hieron in the finals of the Season 4 welterweight tournament. Now a lightweight and a member of the Tristar Gym in Montreal, Hawn emphatically knocked out Ricardo Tirloni and Lloyd Woodard en route to the Season 6 lightweight tourney finals where he scored a unanimous decision victory and a date with the champion.

While both are grapplers at heart, these fighters have shown the ability to throw powerful, brain-rattling punches. I can see the fight starting slowly as they go through a feeling-out process and test one another’s stand-up. If one man is getting the advantage, look for the other to close the distance and initiate his grappling. It wouldn’t surprise me if it goes either way because both Chandler and Hawn are so well-rounded, but I foresee Chandler being the quicker of the two in the striking exchanges with the ability to take Hawn down a lot easier than vice versa. Chandler grinds out a decision.

Winner: Chandler via unanimous decision.

Featherweight Championship bout (145-pounds)

Pat Curran (17-4, 7-1 Bellator) vs. Patricio “Pitbull” Freire (17-1, 5-1 Bellator)

The logjam atop the featherweight division begins to sort itself out as these two fighters entering the prime years of their careers battle for the 145-pound crown.

Curran, 26, is the only man in Bellator history to have won tournaments in two different weight classes. He won the Season 2 lightweight tournament before dropping a decision to Eddie Alvarez in his title opportunity then responded with four straight wins at featherweight winning the 2011 Summer Series tourney and championship belt along the way. He was originally scheduled to defend against Freire in August but a broken orbital bone forced him to withdraw from the bout.

His opponent Freire, 25, knows all too well about injuries. Winner of the Season 4 featherweight tourney, the younger Pitbull brother suffered a hand injury that forced him to withdraw from his title shot and rematch against Joe Warren back in March allowing next-in-line contender Pat Curran to replace him. Curran steamrolled Warren who is the only man to have ever defeated Freire, via split decision in the Season 2 featherweight tourney finals. The combination of injuries have kept Freire out of action since May 2011 when he defeated Daniel Straus, who oddly enough faces the winner of this bout.

There are variables surrounding both men entering this fight, Curran broke a bone in his face within the last six months and Freire hasn’t competed in 18, so it’ll be interesting to see how long it takes them/or if they find their groove inside the cage. Curran is four inches taller and should carry a reach advantage against the southpaw, so I like his chances in the striking department. If he can keep the fight standing and avoid the ground game of the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt expect Curran to point his way to victory.

Winner: Curran via unanimous decision.

Season 8 Light-Heavyweight Tournament Quarter-Final bout (205-pounds)

Renato “Babalu” Sobral (37-9, 0-0 Bellator) vs. Mikhail Zayats (19-6, 0-0 Bellator)

Whether you still believe in his abilities or not, there’s no question Babalu has had a storied career in mixed martial arts.

The 37-year-old Brazilian will try to add a Bellator tournament title to his 15-plus year career. The former UFC and Strikeforce title challenger returned following an 18-month layoff in the summer to submit Tatsuya Mizuno in just 31 seconds at a ONE Fighting Championships event in Malaysia.

Zayats, 31, continues the Russian invasion of Bellator. The former M-1 fighter had a breakout 2012, going 5-0 with four finishes.

Both fighters enter the cage with a wide range of skills and a plethora of experience. That being said, I feel like Sobral has fought on much bigger stages than his opponent and should be more prepared in contrast to Zayats who will be competing on North American soil for the first time. Will that result in a finish? I’ll be optimistic and say yes.

<emWinner: Sobral via second-round TKO stoppage.

Season 8 Light-Heavyweight Tournament Quarter-Final bout (205-pounds)

Jacob “The Psycho” Noe (8-1 1nc, 1-0 Bellator) vs. Seth “The Silverback” Petruzelli (14-6, 1-0 Bellator)

This fight is actually on the undercard due to time constraints because of the two title fights, but it’s worth taking a look at it anyways.

One of the more entertaining personalities in the fight game is Seth Petruzelli. The 33-year-old UFC alum and consummate showman hasn’t fought since August 2011, a knockout victory over former UFC heavyweight champion Ricco Rodriguez in his Bellator debut. The Silverback hasn’t lost a fight outside of the UFC since his second and third career fights back in 2001.

There’s a good chance you may not know Noe (see what I did there?), but he’ll be looking to change that with this tournament. The Tennessee-based fighter has won six straight, five by way of stoppage, including a first-round TKO of Brian Albin in his Bellator debut in August. There’s no question this will be the biggest test of his career.

What an incredibly tough fight to pick. Petruzelli has been a force outside of the Octagon but his extensive layoff has me concerned. Add that in with the fact that Noe will be hungry to make a name for himself and you have the ingredients of an upset in the making. I’ll roll the dice and say Noe pulls it off with a promise to apologize to Petruzelli if I have underestimated him.

Winner: Noe via split decision.

Bonus prediction: Emanuel Newton submits Atanas Djambazov in the second round of their light-heavyweight tournament quarter-final bout.



Ryan Young is a regular contributor to Sportsnet.ca’s MMA section. Follow him on Twitter @YoungRyan4.

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