Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz preview: Former UFC star a heavy betting underdog

August 04, 2023 - 5:41pm

Nate Diaz celebrates a UFC victory. (Eric Jamison/AP)

Just one week after boxing fans were treated to Terence Crawford’s sublime stoppage victory over Errol Spence Jr., the sport is back in the spotlight except instead of world titles and pound-for-pound supremacy on the line, it’s merely bragging rights and a big payday at stake.

In the notable amateur/celebrity corner of the sport, YouTube influencer turned prizefighter Jake Paul will be taking on former UFC superstar Nate Diaz in a sanctioned boxing match in Texas.

The buzz around this bout had been relatively modest or waning in recent months, perhaps partly due to the fact Paul is looking to bounce back from his first loss inside the squared circle – an eight-round split decision to Tommy Fury in February – and Diaz hasn’t shown much enthusiasm promoting the event.

Things certainly ramped up Thursday when members from the two security teams got physical at a media event.

The bout is scheduled for 10 three-minute rounds with fighters lacing up 10-ounce gloves Saturday night at American Airlines Center in Dallas.

If you enjoy sports spectacles and/or high level amateur boxing then this latest offering could certainly provide entertainment as Diaz looks to become the first mixed martial arts fighter to beat Paul.

Paul has knockout power and has proven he can be a showman in the boxing ring against former MMA champions such as Anderson Silva, Tyron Woodley and Ben Askren.

Diaz will be making his official boxing debut, however the 38-year-old has regularly trained with professional boxers during his fighting career, including retired world champion Andre Ward who notably has spoken highly of Diaz’s skills in the past.

Diaz had been competing in the UFC’s welterweight division in recent years but will be moving up in weight for this contest. The heaviest at which Diaz competed during his UFC career was 171 pounds yet he tipped the scales at 184.9 pounds, with Paul an even 185, at Friday morning’s weigh-ins.

The most interesting dynamic at play stylistically will be the opposing stances we are likely to see. Paul uses a traditional orthodox stance, while Diaz would stand southpaw in MMA.

Diaz finished several of his opponents with his hands and nearly defeated current UFC welterweight champion Leon Edwards when he landed a clean left hand down the pipe in the final minute of their 25-minute bout at UFC 263 in June of 2021. Edwards survived to win a decision over Diaz but that moment was an example of the danger Diaz possesses in his hands late in fights.

Will Diaz be able to turn heads in his boxing debut or will Paul teach another MMA fighter a lesson? The odds indicate Paul will get his hand raised but how will the action unfold?

Paul should have the advantage in most areas as the younger, bigger athlete with more experience in the sport. He should be faster and more agile and could exploit Diaz’s flatfooted tendencies.

Durability and endurance have always been among Diaz’s strengths so conventional wisdom may suggest one of Diaz’s best chances to win would be to maintain a steady pace before increasing tempo and wearing on Paul with volume in the back half of the fight.

PROP BETS

Jake Paul to be knocked down and win?
Yes +585 | No -1351

Nate Diaz to be knocked down and win?
Yes +800 | No -3125

Jake Paul to score a knockdown?
Yes -310 | No +211

Nate Diaz to score a knockdown?
Yes +299 | No -498

Fight to go the distance?
Yes +157 | No -239

The judges are not expected to be needed with a finish listed as more than a two-to-one favourite. If one fighter is stopped there could be high value if you can call your shot correctly.

These odds suggest Paul winning in either the sixth or seventh round is the most likely scenario for the fight to be called off, and if Diaz wins it would most likely be in the seventh round.