A month ago, we had certain expectations. Hanley Ramirez was going to put up A-Rod-type numbers, David Wright was a top-five pick, and CC Sabathia was going to nab 25 wins. Surprise! Our expectations and reality are not a match a month into the season. Here’s a look at some of the biggest surprises, both the good and the bad.
The Good:
Zack Greinke, SP, Royals
While he may not have tossed a perfect game, Royals ace Zack Greinke has been perfect every other way. He has five wins in five starts and has allowed just two earned runs through 36 innings, good for a 0.50 ERA. Just 25 years old, the former sixth pick overall has the ability. Clearly last year’s solid 13-10 record, 183 strikeouts, and 3.47 ERA will be surpassed this season. Greinke looks to be the Cliff Lee of 2009.
Heath Bell, RP, Padres
It’s tough to replace a legend, but when you refuse to allow a run to score through the first month of the season, you are likely exceeding expectations. With a fastball in the mid-90’s and strong command, Bell has proven to be a strong finisher. It doesn’t hurt pitching half of his games in the league’s most pitcher-friendly haven. The Padres surprise early success has provided Bell with amble save opportunities.
Adam Jones, OF, Orioles
Once the crown jewel of the Mariners farm system, Adam Jones was acquired by the Orioles two years ago for ace Erick Bedard. In his rookie campaign, Jones showed limited power and speed with nine homeruns and 10 stolen bases. The flower has blossomed this season as Jones currently has five homeruns and three steals along with a .355 average. Just 23 years old, Jones has the potential to evolve as one of the best outfielders in baseball as soon as this season.
Aaron Hill, 2B, Blue Jays
The Major Leagues is deep in second basemen this season, and Aaron Hill has ranked as one of the better ones. It shouldn’t be too great of a surprise considering that Hill was the 13th pick overall of 2003 draft. In 2007, Hill blasted 17 homeruns with a .291 average. Fantasy managers quickly forgot that production when he followed with a mediocre two homeruns and .263 average in an injury ravaged 2008 campaign. Healthy again and at his best, Hill should blast 20-plus homeruns with respectable run production.
Brandon Inge, 3B/C, Tigers
Perhaps the greatest surprise this season has been the resounding power of Brandon Inge. The Tigers have returned Inge to third base after a stint at catcher last season. Comfortable in the field, Inge has been lethal with the bat. On Sunday, Inge blasted his eighth homerun while lifting his average to .316. The track record suggests that the average will fall below .250, but the slugger who once blasted 27 homeruns has proven that the power is legit. In addition, the catcher eligibility carries a lot of eight in fantasy circles.
The Bad:
David Wright, 3B, Mets
Mets fans have already picked David Wright as their punching bag this season because of his struggles with men on base. Of greater concern is the fact that Wright has a .239 average at the spacious Citi Field. While Wright should be a safe bet to raise his average and the stolen bases will eventually come as well, the loss of power is of great concern because of his new surroundings.
Matt Holliday, OF, A’s
Perhaps the power reduction last season for Matt Holliday should have created more concern for fantasy managers. The lone source of improvement last season was his 28 stolen bases. Of course, Holliday has since been shipped to Oakland, where the A’s prefer to go station-to-station on the basepaths. As a result, fantasy managers are still waiting for his first stolen base. Suddenly, the drop in power is of greater concern. On Sunday, Holliday reached a new low as he went 0-7 in a 15-inning contest. The former fantasy phenom is now batting .233 and unless the Yankees return Holliday to a hitter’s park, there is little reason for optimism.
David Ortiz, 1B, Red Sox
Perhaps Manny Ramirez knew it was time to jump ship, because the Red Sox may be sinking now that their clean-up hitter, David Ortiz, is barely hitting above the Mendoza line. The 33-year-old is fresh off a horrendous season that included just 23 home runs and a .264 season. As bad as that looks, we’re still waiting for Ortiz to crack his first home run of the season. It looks as though Ortiz is doing his best Travis Hafner-imitation; a disappearing act that would make Harry Houdini jealous.
Geovany Soto, C, Cubs
We knew that catchers are less consistent than other position players because of the physical demand of their position, but the fact that Geovany Soto, last year’s Rookie of the Year, is sporting a .158 average through the first month of the season is startling. Just 26 years old, one would expect Soto to turn his season around, but as we have learned by the sudden struggles of Charles Johnson, Todd Hundley, and Javy Lopez, fantasy managers should never expect too much out of catchers.
Oliver Perez, SP, Mets
Always a quirky hurler who risked wildness, for the second time in his career, Oliver Perez has imploded. Sadly for the Mets, it came on the heels of a brand new three-year $36 million contract. As a 22-year old hurler in 2004, Perez dominated the National League, fanning 239 strikeouts with a 2.98 ERA, while finishing 12-10 for an awful Pirates squad. Perez then went 10-18 the following two seasons with an earned run average well over six. In 2007, Perez returned to form, notching a career high 15 wins with 174 strikeouts and a fine 3.56 ERA. Last year, Perez pitched a rollercoaster of a season, but finished with a respectable 10-7 record, 180 strikeouts, and a 4.22 ERA. It was far from dominating, but at just 27 years old, Perez has offered enough flashes of brilliances to earn a major contract. This season, Perez has been atrocious. Through five starts, Perez owns an ERA of 9.97 and has 21 walks in 21.2 innings. The Mets will likely skip a few of his starts, while Perez works on his form. Fantasy managers may have reason to be patient, as Citi Field will eventually prove to be a great backdrop for a pitcher such as Perez who keeps the ball in the air.