BY ROB SHAW
sportsnet.ca
In fantasy baseball, luck plays a large role in the season’s outcome. However, there are ways to minimize the risk of your draft picks. Rather than select players with a track record of injuries, you can opt for the safer options who may have less potential, but are more consistent.
For example, rather than gamble on the potential 60 steals from Jose Reyes in the early rounds, fantasy managers can opt for the veteran Ichiro Suzuki, who won’t get as many steals, but has landed on the disabled list just once in his career.
Here’s the latest fantasy insight on some injury-prone talents.
Jose Reyes, SS, Mets
The day that US President Barack Obama signed health care legislation into effect, the Mets announced that Jose Reyes would return to action. Coincidence? I sure hope so. Reyes is an integral part of the Mets season. His vast potential will also make him an important part of a fantasy team’s season, as Reyes will likely be drafted within the first three rounds. Based on his youth, Reyes is expected to pick up from his recent production with the potential to hit .300 with 60-plus steals and double-digit power. While he currently has a reputation as being brittle, fantasy managers should consider that he had played 150-plus games in four consecutive seasons before suffering setbacks last season. I expect Reyes to play 140-plus games as finish the season as a top-30 fantasy player.
A Safe Pick Instead: Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Mariners
Jake Peavy, SP, White Sox
When Jake Peavy finally did return to action after missing most of the season to ankle woes, the former Padres ace won all three games for the White Sox in dominant fashion with a 1.35 ERA. Never known as a workhorse, expect Peavy to offer 180 innings of work, resulting in 12-15 wins and a solid 3.50 ERA with plenty of strikeouts and a respectable WHIP.
A Safe Pick Instead: Ricky Nolasco, SP, Marlins
Carlos Beltran, OF, Mets
The Mets star centerfielder is expected to return to action about a month into the season. While he seems to be improving as a hitter each year, I do have concerns with whether his knee woes will slow him down on the base paths. At 33 years old, I’m expecting Beltran to hit the breaks. In 120 games played, fantasy managers should expect 20 home runs and eight steals with a decent average. Based on the ballpark’s large dimensions and the Mets collective lacks of pop, Beltran’s fantasy star is wavering.
A Safe Pick Instead: Franklin Gutierrez, OF, Mariners
Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Cubs
Last season, Aramis Ramirez played approximately a half of a season. If you double his production you end up with 92 runs, 30 home runs, 130 RBI, and a .317 average. In other words, when healthy, Ramirez is still a fantasy star. The 31-year old veteran has struggled with several injuries over the years and has made it through 150 games just once in the last six seasons. As a result, I would drop Ramirez an extra round in your fantasy draft. Nonetheless, with the third base pool a tad shallower than usual this season, Ramirez may be worth the gamble for some of the less risk averse fantasy managers. Buyer beware, Ramirez already has endured a triceps injury this spring. I’d expect 130 games played and 25 home runs.
A Safe Pick Instead: Ian Stewart, 3B, Rockies
Grady Sizemore, OF, Indians
By now many fantasy managers expected Grady Sizemore to be one of the top five players in the game. Unfortunately, Sizemore’s career went off track lack year due to injuries, but at 27 years old, he’s expected to bounce back. The biggest question that fantasy managers hope to have an answer to is what type of player Sizemore is. Is he a speedster who can steal 50 bases and score 120 runs if he concentrated on making contact and reaching base more consistently rather than swing for the fences? Or is he a middle of the lineup hitter who needs some more protection in order to reach his potential of 40-plus home runs and 120 RBI. It’s understandable for Indians fans to be a little concerned with Sizemore’s inability to hit at least .270 in either of the past two seasons. After all, they witnessed a remarkable vanishing act by former MVP candidate Travis Hafner. As a five-tool talent with much more athleticism, I expect Sizemore to return to prominence, however, it is clear that the Indians need to help their franchise player form an identity.
A Safe Pick Instead: Jayson Werth, OF, Phillies
Josh Hamilton, OF, Rangers
Just when it appeared as though Josh Hamilton had turned a corner in his life, pictures arose last season that showed the Rangers slugger reverting back to his wild ways. It also didn’t help that Hamilton missed nearly half the season due to injuries, which all but killed the Rangers chance at contention. At 28 years old, Hamilton enters the season with all of the potential we’ve been reading about for the past decade, but some serious questions concerning his durability and mental wellbeing. I’d pencil Hamilton in for 120 games this season. There just seems to be too much bad luck that follows Hamilton. In fact, this spring Hamilton has already suffered a bruised hand and an infected tooth. In football terms, I look at him as a Brian Westbrook type player. He’s a star on the field, but the challenge is keeping him on the field.
A Safe Pick Instead: Adam Dunn, 1B/OF, Nationals
Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers
In his first four seasons in the Major Leagues, former 2nd pick overall, Rickie Weeks teased fantasy managers by displaying a combination of power and speed, but a lack of consistency that limited his value. Last season, Weeks finally seemed to put all five-tools together as through a quarter of the season the Brewers second baseman was on pace for 36 home runs, 112 runs, 96 RBI, and eight stolen bases. Unfortunately, Weeks season came to a halt at that point due to a tendon tear in his wrist. After missing parts of four seasons, Weeks is eager to return to the Brewers potent lineup. Unlike players such as Jose Reyes and Aramis Ramirez, Weeks has suffered many freak injuries, but has not had to deal with any chronic ailments. Therefore, fantasy managers can expect Weeks to reach a career high in at bats this season. The concern for fantasy managers is that we still don’t really know what to expect from Weeks. I’d play it conservative, expecting 20 home runs, 15 steals, and solid run production.
A Safe Pick Instead: Jose Lopez, 2B, Mariners
Alfonso Soriano, OF, Cubs
Once one of the top fantasy stars in baseball, Alfonso Soriano’s value has taken a serious hit in recent years due to injuries and a sudden drop off in production. At 34 years old, Soriano is likely on the downside of his career. Soriano’s home run totals have dropped three straight seasons and after swiping 41 bags in ’06, Soriano hasn’t stolen half that total in any of the past three seasons. Additionally, Soriano is striking out more than ever while his average hit a new low last season at .241. There is always the chance that Soriano gets healthy and puts together a fine season, but the days of 35-plus home runs or 25 steals are likely a thing of the past.
A Safe Pick Instead: Curtis Granderson, OF, Yankees