By Kevin O’Nielsen
SPORTSNET.CA
Every year events happen like clockwork where everyone is forced to pay the office tax and get in a pool. Whether you know what you are doing or not the Super Bowl squares, the Oscar pool, March Madness and the Nascar pool pique a common interest: winning money.
We here at sportsnet.ca recognize that the majority of people are going to enter the pool blind, so we are going to throw you a bone and provide a few ways to try and get closer to taking home the cash. (Can’t make any promises since 50 percent of all Madness pools are won by the lady who uses the Diane Chambers method of picking winners: State birds, flowers or favourite colours.)
Alright, enough with the hilarious banter and on to a few simple rules for winning the pool.
The first rule is very easy to follow. As soon as someone drops the sheet off at your desk start looking it over immediately take the No. 1 seeds in all four regions to advance two rounds. Next, take all No. 2 seeds and advance them one round. Everyone loves an underdog, but no No. 1 seed has ever lost in the opening round and only four No. 2 seeds have been taken down in Round 1. The last time a No. 15 seed won a game was back in 2001 when Hampton knocked off Iowa State.
Historically, you will want to pick some upsets of the top two seeds in each region; however, last year the top 12 teams all reached the Sweet 16 while two years ago all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four.
I like two take at least two No. 1 seeds to reach the Final Four. This year there are three teams that stand above the rest: Kansas, Syracuse and Kentucky. Syracuse is headed into the tourney with a two-game losing streak and an injury to a key starter, Arinze Onuaku, so they may fall below the top two.
As for picking some underdogs, start by looking at the No. 8 seeds. The No. 9 seed has won 54 per cent of the opening round match-ups; so you should take two No. 9 seeds to advance at least. Even if you pick wrong, your bracket will not be damaged as the winner will likely be headed home by the end of the first weekend.
Now, obviously as the seed gets higher there is less likelihood that the team will win; however, besides the aforementioned 8 v. 9 game there is one other exception to that rule. There have been 100 first-round games for each seed since the current format for the tournament was adopted back in 1985 and the No. 12 seed has won 34 times whereas the No. 11 seed has won 31 times. Not a huge difference. but something to keep in mind when you are filling out your brackets.
Now before we have a look at a few schools that could pull off upsets in the tournament let me throw one last fact your way — the last time a team outside of the BCS conferences won a title was UNLV in 1990. So while it is nice to pick a small school for an upset or two, make sure your Final Four is full of the big boys. (Now if you don`t know what a BCS school is I will allow you in on another little secret tool of mine called Google.)
Now, sarcasm aside, here are a few hidden gems. (Careful; most gamblers know the rule that if any team becomes too big of a public favourite then it is best to go with the actual favourite.)
St. Mary’s was likely in the tournament before they knocked off mid-major heavyweight Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference finals, but that win added another footnote to an already impressive resume. The Gaels knocked off San Diego St. and Oregon while only losing to a tough Vanderbilt squad by two. The Gaels are a young squad but 6’11 senior center Omar Samhan provides them with enough size to battle anyone in the country on the inside.
The Siena Saints are in The Dance for the third straight season and they are looking to advance past the first round for the third straight year.
Two years ago Siena knocked off Villanova while a year ago they ended Ohio State’s tournament in the opening round.
Head coach Fran McCaffery, a former Notre Dame assistant, will probably get plenty of job offers from power schools next summer.
Now that John Calipari is coaching at Kentucky rather than Memphis, there is a was a new powerhouse dominating Conference USA in UTEP.
Not many people are aware that UTEP was formerly Texas Western which is significant since the school started was the first team to start five black players and win the NCAA title. A feat they accomplished in 1966 against Kentucky. (See! I brought things full circle.)
The Miners, who are coached by former Calipari assistant Tony Barbee, are a run-and-gun squad that have enough ways to score to make a run in the tournament.
Speaking of Calipari and his Wildcats of Kentucky, they have to be considered one of the favourites to win the whole shebang. Along with Kansas, they probably have the best collection of talent in college basketball.
John Wall will be the top pick in next summer`s NBA draft and he will likely be selected in the first round alongside fellow freshman DeMarcus Cousins and junior forward Patrick Patterson.
The only thing that could stand in Kentucky`s way is a team like Syracuse which has the type of veteran poise to rattle the young Wildcats.
A pair of Canadians, Andy Rautins and Kris Joseph, play key roles for a squad that was not even selected to be in the top 25 by most prognosticators before the season began.
The Orange also have a player who should be selected in the top 10 of next summer’s NBA draft in Big East Player of the Year Wesley Johnson.
Kansas would have to stand alongside the Wildcats and Orange as the trio of favourites to be cutting down the nets when the dance ends.
The Jayhawks have a trio of players, freshman Xavier Henry, junior centre Cole Aldrich and senior guard Sherron Collins who will likely be collecting a check with NBA franchises next fall.
Collins was the sixth man for Kansas when they won the title in 2008.
There are a few teams that lie just behind the Big 3 that have an outside chance of taking home the silverware when the Madness ends.
Duke, West Virginia, Ohio State, Villanova and Kansas State are all flawed squads which could do some serious damage in the tournament.
The Blue Devils are back in the top tier for the first time in a while but they are lacking depth in the backcourt, so they may be in trouble if a team decides to press.
The Mountaineers have the talent to do it all but it remains to be seen if Bob Huggins is as good of a coach as he is a recruiter. He reached a Final Four once with Cincinnati but it has been a while and some good teams have fallen short under his watch.
The Buckeyes are a nice dark horse if you want to try your luck with a different squad. Evan Turner is a versatile forward who will get serious consideration for national player of the year. He is the type that could put a team on his back and carry them to the title like Danny Manning did for Kansas back in 1988.
Villanova is actually more talented than they have been in recent years but remain a little smallish.
Kansas State, which shares a nickname with Kentucky and Villanova (Wildcats), is a balanced and veteran squad which could also do some damage.
So there you have it. Some numbers, a few darkhorses and some favourites. Now you are armed with some knowledge and hopefully some luck and will take home the office crown. All credit for wins goes to sportsnet.ca and all blame for losses goes to luck.
Good luck!