A brief breakdown at Thursday night’s Sweet 16 matchups:
East Regional semifinal (Boston)
No. 4 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 1 Syracuse Orange
Syracuse starters:
Scoop Jardine G 6-2, Brandon Triche G 6-4, Rakeem Christmas F 6-9, Kris Joseph F 6-7, C.J. Fair F 6-8
Key reserves:
Dion Waiters G 6-4, James Southerland F 6-8, Baye Keita C 6-10
Wisconsin starters:
Jordan Taylor G 6-1, Jared Berggren F-C 6-10, Ryan Evans G-F 6-6, Mike Bruesewitz F 6-6, Josh Gasser G 6-3
Key reserves:
Rob Wilson G-F 6-4, Ben Brust G 6-1, Frank Kaminsky F 6-11
Outlook:
Many were quick to count out Syracuse after starting centre and Big East defensive player of the year Fab Melo was ruled out of the tournament for academic reasons but this is a team that has been battling adversity all season due to off-court issues.
They were put to the test in Round 2 by UNC-Ashville before easily dismissing Kansas St. on Saturday. Neither of those teams is near the calibre of Wisconsin though.
The Badgers provide quite the contrast in styles as they will grind it out in the half court against the zone defence of the Orange, which has caused plenty of turnovers all season.
Wisconsin is known to be disciplined on offence and aren’t a team that turns that ball over, something Syracuse feasts on.
In their two tourney games so far, wins over Montana (73-49) and Vanderbilt (60-57), Wisconsin committed just 18 turnovers. They also dropped 10 three-pointers on the Commodores, a key if they are to get Syracuse out of their trademark zone defence.
Kansas St. dominated Syracuse on the glass early on but the Badgers aren’t known to be as ferocious on the boards so they may have trouble in this game if their shots aren’t falling against the much-more athletic Syracuse bunch.
Key Players:
Dion Waiters is Syracuse’s most reliable player but they are a very balanced club. If one of the other offensive threats goes cold usually someone is there to pick up the pace.
Scoop Jardine and Kris Joseph both tend to run hot-and-cold but rarely at the same time.
If both were to heat up, this team is unstoppable.
As Jordan Taylor goes, so go the Badgers. One of the nation’s best point guards, Taylor provides penetration to open up shots for all of his teammates. He will need to take special care of the ball against Syracuse to ensure the victory.
Syracuse will win if they can find a secondary source of scoring and if they force turnovers and get out on the run. Wisconsin will win if they take care of the ball and manage to dial it up from long range.
Prediction: Syracuse 72, Wisconsin 65
West Regional semifinal (Phoenix)
No. 4 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 1 Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State starters:
Brandon Wood G 6-2, Draymond Green F 6-7, Keith Appling G 6-1, Austin Thornton G 6-5, Adreian Payne C 6-10
Key reserves:
Brandan Kearney G 6-5, Travis Trice G 6-0, Derrick Nix C 6-9
Louisville starters:
Gorgui Dieng C 6-11, Chane Behanan F 6-6, Kyle Kuric G-F 6-4, Peyton Siva G 6-0, Chris Smith G 6-2
Key reserves:
Russ Smith G 6-0, Jared Swopshire F 6-8, Wayne Blackshear G-F 6-5
Outlook:
The Louisville Cardinals and Michigan State Spartans both had slow starts to the season after being ranked in the preseason Top 10.
For the Spartans it was a matter of tough scheduling whereas for the Cardinals it was due to a host of injuries to key players. The Spartans pulled out of their funk earlier and went on to win a share of the Big 10 regular season title and then the Conference tournament title as well.
The Cardinals have been undefeated in post-season play, winning four straight en route to the Big East tourney title before slipping past Davidson (69-62) and New Mexico (59-56) in their first two games of the NCAA tournament.
As expected with a No. 1 seed, the Spartans road to the regional semifinal has been a little easier with an easy 89-67 win over Long Island before they were put to a much tougher test by the Rick Majerus-coached Saint Louis Billikens (65-61).
The Spartans still play the tough, gritty style that has seen them reach the Final Four several times over the past decade. They will be physical in the paint and on the boards.
Even with the return of Wayne Blackshear from injury, the Cardinals have been forced to play a grind-it-out style as they lack the firepower to play Rick Pitino’s style of run-and-gun offence mixed with high-pressure defence.
Key Players:
Draymond Green provides most of the scoring but Keith Appling is the key player for the Spartans. They will need him to take care of the ball and to keep a tight seal on Louisville point guard Peyton Siva.
The Cardinals are all about Siva. The junior point guard does not need to score in double digits to control a game as he only averages 9.2 PPG. He is the team leader and primary set-up man for a youthful squad.
The Spartans will win if they control the tempo and get a secondary source of scoring besides Green.
The Cardinals will win if Gorgui Dieng can keep the bigger Spartans off the offensive glass and if they can force the Spartans to turn over the ball.
Prediction: Michigan St. 66, Louisville 58
East Regional semifinal (Boston)
No. 6 Cincinnati vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Ohio State starters:
William Buford G 6-6, Aaron Craft G 6-2, Deshaun Thomas F 6-7, Lenzelle Smith, Jr. G 6-4, Jared Sullinger F 6-9
Key reserves:
Evan Ravenel F 6-8, Shannon Scott G 6-1
Cincinnati starters:
Sean Kilpatrick G 6-4, Dion Dixon G 6-3, Cashmere Wright G 6-0, Yancy Gates F 6-9, Jaquon Parker G 6-3
Key reserves:
Justin Jackson F 6-8, Cheikh Mbodj C 6-10
Outlook:
Considering the fact there are four teams from Ohio remaining in the NCAA field, it is unsurprising that we would see a pair of teams from the Buckeye State face off at some point.
The fact that it is the state’s two premier programs meeting in Boston makes this match-up even more delicious.
Ohio St. features one of the nation’s premier big men in Jared Sullinger but the future lottery pick will be put to the test by Bearcats widebody Yancy Gates. The barrel-chested senior is a load down low.Despite starting four guards and lacking much size aside from Gates, the Bearcats do not play an up-tempo style and are beasts on the boards.
In victories over Florida State (62-56) and Texas (65-59), Cincinnati held both under 60 points as they were able to assert their style on the game. The Buckeyes are also known as defensive demons as they only allowed only one field goal in the final four minutes of their 73-56 win over Gonzaga.
Key Players:
While Sullinger is the key player for the Buckeyes, they will likely need another strong outing from glue guy Dashaun Thomas to beat the Bearcats. He recorded 31 points and 12 rebounds in the team’s opening round win over Loyola.
The Bearcats top scorer is Sean Kilpatrick (14.3 PPG) who shoots 37.6 per cent from three-point range. He and the other guards are going to have to make more than a few shots from long range to stop Ohio St.
Cincy will win if they keep the game at a walk-it-up-the-court pace. They will also need to contain Buckeyes point guard Aaron Craft. He can do some damage off the bounce.
The Buckeyes will win if Sullinger can stay out of foul trouble. The shot-blocker will need to clog the lane against all of the Bobcats guards.
Prediction: Ohio State 70, Cincinnati 65
West Regional semifinal (Phoenix)
No. 7 Florida Gators vs. No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles
Marquette starters:
Jae Crowder F 6-6, Darius Johnson-Odom G 6-2, Junior Cadougan G 6-1, Jamil Wilson F 6-7, Vander Blue G 6-4
Key reserves:
Todd Mayo G 6-3 190, Davante Gardner F 6-8
Florida starters:
Kenny Boynton G 6-2, Bradley Beal G 6-3, Erving Walker G 5-8, Erik Murphy F 6-10, Patric Young F-C 6-9
Key reserves:
Mike Rosario G 6-3, Scottie Wilbekin G 6-2, Casey Prather G-F 6-6
Outlook:
Expect the tempo of the Sweet 16 match-up between the Gators and Golden Eagles to be fast. Real fast.
Florida won their opening game versus Virginia (71-45) and then demolished Norfolk St. (84-50). Meanwhile Marquette tore apart BYU (88-68) before getting a stiffer test from Murray St. (62-53).
This could be one of the most entertaining games of the round as both teams no how to fill it up and neither squad is known for its defence.
Marquette is far from a deep team as they generally stick to a seven-man rotation but they do have Big East Player of the Year Jai Crowder on their side and he is a handful. He plays bigger than his 6-6 frame but he can also step outside and hit the three. Crowder and the backcourt dynamic duo of Darius Johnson-Odom and Vander Blue will attack the rim and kick it out to open shooters.
The Gators also like to shoot from long range. Maybe a little too much. Many times they wheel the ball around the outside looking for openings, sometimes missing out on the powerful inside presence of Patric Young. Young is a beast when he is involved in the Gators offence but he needs to demand the ball a little more often. Not always easy when you have a team of talented sharpshooters like Erving Walker and Bradley Beal.
Key Players:
Canadian guard Cadougan needs to continue to penetrate the paint and kick to the outside shooters if the Golden Eagles are to handle the Gators. Erik Murphy stands 6-10 and shoots 43.2 per cent from beyond the arc. I am not sure if the smallish Marquette team can stop him is he is hitting from long range.
The Gators will win if they can stand up to the physical style of Marquette. They are a tad soft. The Golden Eagles will win if they can control the boards. Both teams will hit a few and miss a few but it is a matter of limiting second-chance opportunities and creating more of their own.
Prediction: Florida 82, Marquette 78