It is not what it might have been, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be special. History tells you that, and in boxing history is always part of the conversation.
On May 2, Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao will finally meet in a fight that could have and should have happened at least five years go. Then, they would have been closer to respective peaks, and then, truth be told, the sport in which they make their living would have had a stronger pulse.
But in boxing you don’t always get what you want when you want it.
This fight, at this time, could become the single most lucrative sporting event in the history of the world, and at the same time a one-off, a swansong, that won’t be enough to provide sustaining oxygen for the sweet science.
Look closely at the two combatants. Mayweather is undefeated, and you can count the rounds he’s lost as a professional on what? – four hands? But his feet don’t move with quite the effortless grace they once did, the combinations don’t come quite as quickly and easily, and though the trademark shoulder-roll remains intact, he’s become more of a pot-shot artist now who hasn’t knocked anyone out since dropping Victor Ortiz with a sucker punch in 2011.
Maybe it was boredom rather than old age that caused him to struggle with the crude and aggressive Marcos Maidana in their first fight. (Mayweather handled him with relative ease in the rematch.) But he will turn 38 this week. Even an athlete who respects his craft so thoroughly, who remains in peak physical condition all of the time — don’t confuse his failings as a human being outside the ring with a lack of commitment — has to get old eventually.
As for Pacquiao, he’s always been nearly impossible to categorize, fighting in a style that is entirely his own. He had his first professional fight more than 20 (!) years ago, when he was 16, and won his first world title as a flyweight.
What made Pacquiao great as he rose all the way to super welterweight and won multiple titles along the way was a freakish combination of speed and power delivered in an utterly unorthodox manner. His punches came from all kinds of strange angles, in quantity. At his best, he was relentless — as much of a “human windmill” as Henry Armstrong.
That guy would have given even the best version of Mayweather a very challenging night.
But that guy hasn’t been around for a while. Pacquiao’s power seemed to disappear right around the time whispers about possible PED use began to sound like more than sour grapes. His last knockout came way back in 2009, when he wore down and finished Miguel Cotto. And of course, Pacquiao himself was stopped in spectacular fashion by Juan Manuel Marquez in 2012. His three fights since have all been clear decision wins, but with little reminder of the Pacman of old.
So too late … except remember the third fight between Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier, the Thrilla in Manila? It was as savage and remarkable a spectacle as the sport has ever produced. Frazier was supposed to be a shot fighter. George Foreman had dropped him six times in Kingston, Jamaica, to claim the heavyweight title. And Ali, though he was the champ, though he had managed a miracle in Zaire, was surviving almost entirely on guile, struggling even against lesser opponents.
Then Frazier pushed Ali to his limit, Ali dug deeper than he ever had before, Eddie Futch prevented Smoking Joe from coming out for 15th round, and everyone agreed they had just witnessed one of the greatest fights in history.
And remember the second Ray Leonard-Thomas Hearns fight in 1989? Leonard still looked reasonably fresh in the early stages of a comeback, winning a controversial decision over Marvin Hagler and knocking out Donnie Lalonde, and Hearns was still a world champion. But the consensus was that the Hitman was fragile, that his chin was gone and his legs were gone, that the beatings he’d endured from Hagler and Iran Barkley had pretty much finished him, and that Ray was doing him a bit of favour, giving him one last big payday.
That night in the outdoor arena at Caesars Palace, Hearns turned back the clock, dropped Leonard twice, and if there were any justice in the boxing world, would have avenged his loss in the their fantastic first match eight years before. Even Leonard admitted that it wasn’t really a draw, that Hearns had won fair and square.
There are no guarantees of a similar classic on May 2. If Mayweather still has enough left to dictate the course of the fight and Pacquiao can’t hurt him, or at least make him uncomfortable, he’ll plot his usual safety-first course, pop away all night, and coast to the finish — sort of like the third Leonard-Roberto Duran fight that took place three months after Leonard-Hearns II, and was one of the sport’s biggest letdowns, ever. The opposite scenario is a little harder to imagine — a prime time Pacquiao blowing Mayweather away — though there are a whole lot of people hoping that might happen.
But the beauty of boxing is, you never know until they step into the ring.
The pick here? Same as it would have been way back when: Mayweather by decision.
The hope here? That it can become one of those unexpected fights for the ages.