BY ROB SHAW
FANTASYFANATICS.COM
If you want to win in fantasy baseball, you better be doing your homework. While it’s important to know the recent trends for your batters, it is also important to have an outlook for the upcoming games. One of the more important factors in fantasy baseball is the ballpark. Unlike in football and basketball, where the dimensions of the playing surface does not change, in baseball every park is different.
By taking a look at the Major League schedule, fantasy managers can determine the location of their fantasy player’s games. If your player is visiting Colorado, Cincinnati, or Texas, you should throw them in the lineup. If they visit San Diego, Shea Stadium, or Oakland, you’d be best served keeping them on the bench. Of course, some talents should be played regardless of the venue, however, the location of each game can certainly make an impact. We’ll use the theme of hitter’s parks to find this week’s Sultan of Swats. Here’s a few other factors to consider when finding your next fantasy star.
1) Are they young?
If a young player slams a quick 5 home runs in the first two weeks of the season, they deserve more attention than a veteran with a track record that suggests it’s a fluke. No, this is not age discrimination! This is simply a fact that it is rare for a veteran to suddenly discover a power stroke. On the other hand, many of the young talents in Major League Baseball bulk up their first few seasons in the league. It helps explain how a young Todd Hundley went from a 7-home run catcher to breaking the record with 40 a few years later. Rockies slugger Matt Holliday went from 15 home runs to 19 his second year, then took the leap to 34 by his third season. Young players still have potential, while veterans are what they are.
2) Change of scenery?
Sometimes a player may be traded and become a different type of hitter in his new surrounding. This certainly was the case at Coors Field a few years ago, when Dante Bichette and Ellis Burks suddenly became sluggers. On the other hand, a move from Pittsburgh to San Diego has made Brian Giles go from a home run hitter to a doubles machine…and that’s not a good thing.
3) Is the hitter new to the pitchers?
A scouting report can go a long way in Major League Baseball. Shane Spencer went from hammering home runs with fastballs to struggling to hit the sliders. Benny Agbayani was pounding the heaters, until pitchers began to chase him with the curves. If a hitter comes out swinging out of the gates, wait until the next time that a team faces him. If the slugger continues to swat then you’ve got yourself a star in the making. If the pitchers start to have more success against the hitter, it looks like he might have been figured out.
Below is analysis of a few players who have been coming around of late. Once we find out where they fit based on the aforementioned characterizations, we’ll have a better idea of what’s in store for the remainder of the 2008 season.
MILTON BRADLEY, OF, RANGERS
At the age of 30, Bradley should be in his prime. While it likely took a few weeks for him to shake the rust off his surgically repaired knee, Bradley has impressed through the first quarter of the season with power and a solid average. Age and injuries have likely ceased Bradley’s value on the basepaths, but he remains a solid option for power and average. To this date, Bradley has never amassed more than 141 games played, nor reached 20 home runs in a season. If he can stay healthy, both marks should fall by the end of the season. While fantasy managers should be modest in their expectations, Bradley is a sensational sleeper pick who still has a high ceiling, even nine years into his major league career. At the Ballpark of Arlington, Bradley has made himself at home with a .379 average, 17 RBI, and six home runs in 18 games. At the very least, Bradley should be in the lineup every game played at home.
2008 PROJECTIONS: 26 home runS, 104 RBI, 96 RUNS, .294 AVERAGE
HUNTER PENCE, OF, ASTROS
The second round pick of 2004 is fresh off a remarkable season that could only be slowed by injury. Early in the year, Pence struggled to follow up his fine rookie season, as he hit just .260 with a single home run in all of April. This month, Pence is batting .342 with four home runs and 17 RBI. He even has four stolen bases, to return to the 5-tool form that made him a household name in fantasy circles in ’07. When trying to determine when to start Pence, one should look at where the game is held. All five of Pence’s home runs have come at home this season. With just three home contests before a road trip, there isn’t a better time to have Pence in your fantasy outfield than now.
2008 PROJECTIONS: 24 home runS, 107 RBI, .288 AVERAGE, 22 STEALS
JOEY VOTTO, 1B, REDS
Even with 33% of his home runs coming in a single game, Joey Votto is a fantasy option with nine home runs on the season. The Reds infielder is an Ontario native who has now hit 13 home runs in just 67 Major League games. This season, the streaky Votto has been either hit or miss. Lately, Votto has been the latter in the midst of an 0-10 slump. It is not surprising that his last 10 at bats have come on the road, after blasting a home run in his most recent home game. On the season, Votto’s power is clearly on display more often at home. He has seven home runs at the Great American Ballpark in just 64 at bats. When playing in pitcher’s parks such as Shea Stadium and Turner Field, Votto has combined for just two hits in 16 at bats. As a real estate agent would tell you, with Joey Votto, it’s all about location.
2008 PREDICTIONS: 24 home runS, 84 RBI, .278 AVERAGE
ADRIAN GONZALEZ, 1B, PADRES
Over the past few seasons, Adrian Gonzalez has evolved into one of the best sluggers in the game. After blasting 24 home runs with a .304 average in 2006 and 30 home runs with 100 RBI last season, Gonzalez has 13 home runs this season. The 26-year old former first pick overall has remarkable power, yet it remains limited as long as he dons the Padres jersey. This season, Gonzalez has slammed just four home runs at home, compared to nine on the road. Even his average takes a dip to .211 at home. Last season, a similar split unfolded. Gonzalez hit a staggering 20 home runs on the road with a .295 average and 64 RBI. At home, he hit just 10 home runs with 36 RBI and a .266 average. While his numbers may add up to fantasy stardom, fantasy managers would be better served platooning Gonzalez with a different player whenever he visits Petco Park.
2008 PREDICTIONS: 34 home runS, 118 RBI, .278 AVERAGE