The Quarterback Fantasy Rankings
By Rob Shaw
While quarterbacks dominate the chatter when it comes to reality, in the fantasy world they fall behind running backs. Why the lack of love in fantasy land? Quarterbacks usually rack up similar statistics. Aside from Tom Brady, who achieved a career season, seven quarterbacks had between 28-36 touchdowns. Seven quarterbacks racked up between 3950-4425 passing yards. With a lack of an overwhelming disparity, fantasy managers usually take their time selecting their quarterbacks. The mindset is often, "if I don’t get Brady, I’ll settle for Manning. If I don’t get Manning, I’m happy with Drew Brees." On that note, aside from Brady, the top tier quarterbacks will once again have comparable statistics. While there might not be a rush to draft a quarterback, if you do not grab one of the first eight, you’ll likely find yourself at a noticeable disadvantage.
1) TOM BRADY, PATRIOTS
Fresh off the greatest season for a quarterback in fantasy football history, Tom Brady easily ranks at the top of his position. The only questions are where does he rank amongst all players, and what are the chances of a similar season. As far as ranking, I’d place him in the top 6 in all of football. If touchdowns are all weighed heavily among positions, then he may wind up as high as the top 3. As far as a repeat of his success, I believe 50 touchdowns may be impossible to reach, but with Wes Welker and Randy Moss in town, 40-plus touchdowns is certainly realistic. Expect the Patriots to push a greater emphasis on the rushing attack, while Brady maintains his footing as the best quarterback in the NFL.
2) PEYTON MANNING, COLTS
Despite losing lead wide out Marvin Harrison to an injury last season, Peyton Manning once again topped 30 touchdowns and 4,000 passing yards. Expect another fine season from Manning as Anthony Gonzalez evolves into a standout wide out, and Marvin Harrison returns to the field. The off-season knee surgery is not much of a concern for Manning, who incredibly has never missed a game in his 10-year NFL career.
3) TONY ROMO, COWBOYS
One could argue that Tony Romo should be the second quarterback off the board after a sensational first full season that included 36 passing touchdowns and 4211 passing yards. The weapons are certainly in place as tight end Jason Witten is fresh off a career season, while Terrell Owens remains one of the best targets in the game. As long as the NFL playoffs are not included in your fantasy league, Romo is a proven commodity.
4) DREW BREES, SAINTS
My pick to click this season is Drew Brees. When you consider that the Saints quarterback struggled out of the gates in 2007 with 1 touchdown and 9 interceptions through the first quarter of the season, it’s remarkable that Brees still finished the season as the 5th best quarterback in fantasy circles. On that note, in the final 12 games, Brees tossed 27 touchdowns compared to 9 interceptions. If he can maintain that pace through all 16 games, Brees may evolve as the best quarterback in the NFL.
5) BEN ROETHLISBERGER, STEELERS
After the worst season and off-season of his career, Ben Roehtlisberger bounced back in 2007, racking up a career high 32 passing touchdowns compared to just 11 interceptions. The offense appears to be the focal point of the Steelers these days with 6’5 wide out Limas Sweed grabbed in the second round, tailback Rashard Mendenhall selected in the first round, and a healthy Santonio Holmes returning in his prime. Let’s see if Big Ben can hang with the best of the business for another season.
6) CARSON PALMER, BENGALS
With Ben Utecht coming to town, Carson Palmer has a pass-catching tight end for the first time in his career. While the arsenal remains loaded with deep route weapons such as Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, the defense is not that improved. That’s a great thing for fantasy managers as the Bengals will likely compete in many shoot-outs leading to many touchdowns and passing yards for the field general.
7) MATT HASSELBECK, SEAHAWKS
At the age of 32, Matt Hasselbeck is fresh off his finest season, setting career highs across the board with 28 touchdowns, 3966 passing yards, while tossing just 12 interceptions. With the exception of wide out D.J. Hackett and Shaun Alexander, Hasselbeck returns with the same cast of weapons as Bobby Engram, Nate Burleson, and Deion Branch are expected to lead the receiving corps, while Ben Obomanu should be a factor as well. Julius Jones will likely learn to play a role in the passing game also, as head coach Mike Holmgren has been pushing for his tailbacks to handle receiving duties as well.
8) DEREK ANDERSON, BROWNS
The first big move by the Browns during the off-season was keeping Derek Anderson in town. The next big transaction was the addition of wide out Dante Stallworth. Already stacked with both wide out Braylon Edwards and Kellen Edwards leading the passing game, Stallworth should provide a fine third option, and could be used on the deep routes as well. We’ll soon find out if Anderson’s big season was a trend or a mirage. Keep in mind Brady Quinn is eager to enter the field.
9) ELI MANNING, GIANTS
It was his clutch performance in the Super Bowl that brings Eli Manning into the top ten. Unfortunately, some things won’t change this regular season, and that includes daunting winds that will likely force the Giants to keep the ball on the ground. Nonetheless, you have to like the idea of a quarterback with plenty of confidence. Manning will also break in wide out Steve Smith this season, as an alternative to the ultra-talented Plaxico Burress.
10) BRETT FAVRE, JETS
This is a tough guy to draft, and I’m sure you’ll see some fantasy manager reach too high for the legend because of all of the attention that he’s received this off-season. While Favre is fresh off one of his finer seasons, the Jets run a conservative offense that does not match up with his gun-slinging ways. I’d have to assume that it will be the Jets changing to Favre rather than the soon to be 38-year old changing his ways. All things considered, by week 4, we should see a comfortable Favre hitting his receivers.
11) DONOVAN MCNABB, EAGLES
It shouldn’t be a surprise that Donovan McNabb did not immediately return to form in ’07, after missing a large part of ’06 with a major knee injury. This season, McNabb should be healthier and more mobile, but there are some concerns about his teammates. The Eagles will rely on Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown again this season, which may explain why McNabb only tossed 19 touchdowns a season ago. Aside from the notorious Terrell Owens era, McNabb has never had the luxury of a playmaking wide out on his squad. Once again Brian Westbrook will be utilized in an assortment of roles.
12) JAY CUTLER, BRONCOS
With just 20 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in 2007, Jay Cutler was no better than average last season. However, there are some signs that the Broncos 25-year old quarterback will improve. After just 8 touchdowns and 8 interceptions in the first half of the season, Cutler tossed 12 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions in the second half. Now that he has his first full season as a starting quarterback under his belt, Cutler can be expected to reach 25 touchdowns in 2008.
13) MARC BULGER, RAMS
It was as bad a season as it could be in St. Louis last year as the big contract awarded to quarterback Marc Bulger looked more like a curse as he tossed 15 interceptions compared to 11 touchdowns in an injury-riddled season. As a result, the former top 5 quarterback is now considered a second quarterback in most fantasy leagues. While his fantasy value will depend greatly on a banged up offense line, he does have a track record that offers plenty of upside in fantasy leagues. In fact, in 2007, Bulger tossed 24 touchdowns with just 8 interceptions.
14) MATT SCHAUB, TEXANS
If you’re willing to take a gamble, Matt Schaub is an unproven quarterback with plenty of potential. He threw for at least 225 passing yards in each of the first six games last season before injuries disrupted the Houston offense, and sent Schaub to the sideline for parts of 6 games. At 27 years old, Schaub will once again inherit a talented offense that includes standout wideout Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter, as well as tight end Owen Daniels. The greater question is whether the offensive line can offer Schaub enough time to utilize his weapons.
15) DAVID GARRARD, JAGUARS
Perhaps the most improved player last season, David Garrard surprised everyone by simply getting the starting spot when the Jaguars released Byron Leftwich the week before the season started. Garrard went on to run a highly efficient offense tossing just 3 interceptions all season compared to 18 touchdowns. The 30-year quarterback out of Eastern Carolina is a bit injury-prone, as he missed 4 games last season, but with the Jaguars improving the receiving corps this off-season, Garrard should shine bright this season. Nonetheless, he ranks below Jay Cutler, Marc Bulger, and Matt Schaub because of the Jaguars conservative play-calling and his inability to remain healthy for a full season thus far.
16) JAKE DELHOMME, PANTHERS
Through the first three weeks of the season, Jake Delhomme seemed to turn the corner after his career had stalled the previous season. In 3 games, Delhomme accumulated 8 touchdowns compared to just one interception. Then an injury knocked him out for the remainder of the season. This season, there are once again questions about Delhomme’s health, but with D.J. Hackett on board to join Steve Smith, the passing game may improve again. Naturally, the injury concerns, plus ineffectiveness over the past few seasons put a damper Delhomme’s fantasy value. Look at him as a solid second quarterback in fantasy leagues.
17) PHILIP RIVERS, CHARGERS
His struggles last season keep Rivers outside of the top 15, but he actually has plenty of upside. Though his numbers weren’t all that impressive with 21 touchdowns and 15 interceptions, Rivers later admitted that an excruciating knee injury had been limiting him, resulting in major knee surgery during the off-season. In addition, Rivers has plenty of targets in San Diego with Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, and of course, LaDainian Tomlinson all capable of making big plays. Some fantasy managers would argue that Rivers ranks higher than Jay Cutler, however, I’d prefer to see Rivers average greater than 200 passing yards per game before earning that type of respect.
18) MATT LEINART, CARDINALS
If Matt Leinart can simply evolve as a system quarterback in one of the best passing offenses in the NFL, he would easily rank in the top 10. For proof of that, just check out what Kurt Warner did in the second half of last season. Injuries weren’t the only downfall for Hollywood’s favorite quarterback last season. His ineffectiveness had him splitting time early last season after racking up just 2 touchdowns compared to 4 interceptions through 5 games. As far as potential, with Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald running routes, Leinart is an excellent late-round pick with plenty of potential.
19) JON KITNA, LIONS
We called him a system quarterback, and must now figure out what happens when offensive coordinator Mike Martz leaves for San Francisco. Considering Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson are still in Detroit, Kitna will still enjoy some solid yardage, but even last season when he threw for 4,068 yards, he still managed just 18 touchdowns and 20 interceptions. I’d rather select a younger quarterback with potential, over a middle of the road veteran with a knack of getting picked.
20) JASON CAMPBELL, REDSKINS
Last season, Jason Campbell was no better than average. In 13 games, he managed just 12 touchdowns along with 11 interceptions. To the Redskins credit, they seem eager to help solve a decade-long weakness by bringing in new wideouts. In the second round, they selected two wide outs with plenty of potential in Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly. Along with Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El, Campbell will have some improved targets to aim at. It will be an opportunity for the Redskins quarterback to finally break from the pack.