Check out yesterday’s comprehensive playoff pool stats pack, which also details how my post-season picks have gone in the past few years. It also lays out the basic strategy for picking your players.
This is the deal with picking your playoff pool: go with your gut. Parity has been a real, tangible entity in the NHL for a number of years now and the difference between winning and losing can often be really minimal. You’re a hockey fan – if you’ve seen something interesting unfold down the stretch and think it can translate into a team succeeding in the playoffs then don’t be afraid to go on that hunch.
You may remember two specific points to my playoff picks each year: I like to provide a “confidence ratio” with each series pick, which is my way of relaying how sure I am about each team’s chance of winning that series. Take it for what it’s worth, but it might help you decide how much you want to invest in that team’s stars.
Also, all I do all season is write. Write, write, write. Generally 12+ blogs each week, all season. So for the post-season, I generally like to challenge myself to offer up each series analysis with 100 words or fewer. Concise and to the point. So let’s get to it. We began in the East yesterday, so let’s head West today.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
San Jose Sharks (1) vs. Colorado Avalanche (8)
Series pick: Sharks
Confidence ratio: 85%
Sharks notes: PP rank (4th, tied, 21%); PK rank (4th, tied, 84%); record since Olympics (11-7-2)
Avs notes: PP rank (15th, 18.1%); PK rank (21st, 80.2%); record since Olympics (8-10-3)
100 words or fewer: This is the tale of two teams who weren’t great after the Olympic break, but the difference is the Sharks should be deep enough to overcome the problem for one round. Craig Anderson could steal the series, but it’s more likely the dominant team prevails here. This series is less about what Colorado can do to the Sharks than it is about what the Sharks can do to themselves, but they should be able to handle their business in the first round.
Chicago Blackhawks (2) vs. Nashville Predators (7)
Series pick: Hawks
Confidence ratio: 80%
Hawks notes: PP rank (16th, 17.7%); PK rank (5th, 85%); record since Olympics (11-7-3)
Preds notes: PP rank (24th); PK rank (28th); record since Olympics (14-6-1)
100 words or fewer: Remind me again how a team with the 24th-ranked power play and 28th-ranked PK even MAKES the playoffs in the West? Yes, the Preds have Pekka Rinne and he could stand on his head. Yes, the Hawks are banged up on the blueline. An upset could happen. But realistically, the Hawks should have enough firepower to advance here and they came up just short of being the best team in the West in the regular season.
Vancouver Canucks (3) vs. Los Angeles Kings (6)
Series pick: Canucks
Confidence ratio: 70%
Canucks notes: PP rank (6th, 20.9%); PK rank (18th, 81.6%); record since Olympics (12-6-3)
Kings notes: PP rank (7th, 20.8%); PK rank (20th, 80.3%); record since Olympics (9-7-5)
100 words or fewer: The Kings have been improving annually and the organization really took a step forward in the standings this season. They’ve only been so-so recently, but can they get to a Roberto Luongo that has had a case of the fatigue-based and post-gold yips since the Olympics? The Sedins have been dominant and Vancouver’s second line is no joke either, so as long as Luongo is average or better he can still beat the underrated Jonathan Quick in a battle of goalies. L.A. is evolving and shouldn’t be an easy out, but they’ll still be in tough to win this series.
Phoenix Coyotes (4) vs. Detroit Red Wings (5)
Series pick: Red Wings
Confidence ratio: 80%
Coyotes notes: PP rank (28th, 14.6%); PK rank (6th, 84.5%); record since Olympics (13-4-2)
Red Wings notes: PP rank (9th, 19.2%); PK rank (10th, 83.9%); record since Olympics (16-3-2)
100 words or fewer: Phoenix has a deeper team than casual fans might realize and the Coyotes are a feel-good story this season that’s actually also hot at the right time of year. But man, did they draw the wrong opponent in the playoffs. Detroit is healthy, hungry and like a bear protecting her cub; this squad is going to fight to the death to defend their Western playoff success of the past few seasons. Different goalie, a few different names up front; but the coach, system and desire in Motown are all the same.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Washington Capitals (1) vs. Montreal Canadiens (8)
Series pick: Caps
Confidence ratio: 90%
Caps notes: PP rank (1st, 25.2%); PK rank (25th, 78.8%); record since Olympics (13-2-5)
Canadiens notes: PP rank (2nd, 21.8%); PK rank (12th, 83.0%); record since Olympics (10-5-4)
100 words or fewer: We’ve seen some magic from Jaroslav Halak this season, but Washington’s goaltending is better than it gets credit for and the team’s offensive prowess is clearly just deadly. Did the Habs learn a lesson from the Boston Bruins on the final day of the season on how to shut down Alex Ovechkin, or can he even be stopped in successive games? Whichever team controls the game, spends more time in the other’s offensive zone and draws penalties could determine the winner in this battle of two deadly power plays.
New Jersey Devils (2) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (7)
Series pick: Devils
Confidence ratio: 55%
Devils notes: PP rank (11th 18.7%); PK rank (13th, 82.8%); record since Olympics (11-6-4)
Flyers notes: PP rank (3rd, 21.5%); PK rank (11th, 83.0%); record since Olympics (9-10-3)
100 words or fewer: Consistency and discipline. The difference between the two teams can be boiled down to those two things. New Jersey has them and Philadelphia has struggled with them. The Flyers are absolutely capable of an upset here; and, in fact, have handled the Devils well this season. Chris Pronger is also a proven playoff stud and Jeff Carter is healthy just in time. But adding Ilya Kovalchuk to NJ’s depth and having a well-rested Martin Brodeur (Olympics were a blessing in disguise) should be enough for the Devils. This could be a battle, but New Jersey should prevail.
Buffalo Sabres (3) vs. Boston Bruins (6)
Series pick: Sabres
Confidence ratio: 70%
Sabres notes: PP rank (17th, 17.6%); PK rank (2nd, 86.6%); record since Olympics (12-9-1)
Bruins notes: PP rank (23rd, 16.6%); PK rank (3rd, 86.4%); record since Olympics (12-8-2)
100 words or fewer: As great as Ryan Miller has been this season, the Sabres don’t necessarily have a huge edge in net for this series against Tuukka Rask or Tim Thomas. Combine Miller’s abilities with Boston’s inability to score goals this season (second-last overall) and the injury to Marc Savard and the Bruins are going to need some big-time efforts from guys who haven’t been getting it done consistently to date. This low-scoring series should favour the Sabres, but maybe barely.
Pittsburgh Penguins (4) @ Ottawa Senators (5)
Series pick: Penguins
Confidence ratio: 85%
Penguins notes: PP rank (20th, 17.2%); PK rank (9th, 84.1%); record since Olympics (11-6-3)
Senators notes: PP rank (21st, 16.9%); PK rank (7th, 84.3%); record since Olympics (8-9-2)
100 words or fewer: The Sens were 7-2-1 in their final 10 GP, but going up against the defending Stanley Cup champs with a motivated and scorching-hot Sidney Crosby, fresh off a clutch five-point performance, is a tough match-up in the first round. Can the Sens win this series? Yes. Will they? It’s unlikely, despite how well Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson have been playing since coming back from injuries. Jordan Staal’s line was built for the playoffs and Evgeni Malkin gets a fresh start after an average regular season.
BEYOND THE FIRST ROUND
San Jose, Chicago, Vancouver & Detroit will advance to the second round, which means Sharks vs. Wings and Hawks vs. Canucks. Again. Can you feel the hate?
I swore last year I’d never pick the Sharks to go deep again and the way the Wings have been playing there’s no reason to change my mind now. It should be a heck of a series, but Detroit will prevail again.
This year I could definitely see the Canucks beating the Hawks, depending on the health of each team at the time. Roberto Luongo proved he could deliver in a big game on the big stage several times at the Olympics, so he should be able to bury last year’s playoff demons this time around too.
Canucks vs. Wings in the Western Conference Finals. Sorry Vancouver, but even with its faults this Detroit team will be just too much. They’re too healthy, too hungry and their experience is just made for this time of year.
In the East, it’d be Washington, New Jersey, Buffalo and Pittsburgh coming out of the first set of games. That means Ovechkin vs. Crosby. Again. Let’s get it on. Devils and Sabres in the other series.
Washington has fared well against the Pens this season. The Caps have better goaltending than they’re given credit for too. Their weak PK may not be an issue against a Pittsburgh team that isn’t as good with the man advantage as you might think, although the main components (Sergei Gonchar, Crosby and Evgeni Malkin) are all healthy now. This has the makings of an epic seven-game battle, but I think Crosby will best Ovechkin.
Devils and Sabres will be a typical low-scoring, defensive playoff match-up with two of the best ’09-10 goalies in hockey, but New Jersey’s acquisition of Ilya Kovalchuk could be the difference in a tight game. He’s a much tougher and more responsible player than many give him credit for in casual hockey circles. Thomas Vanek will have to build on his final weekend scoring heroics to keep pace, although even then that might only match what New Jersey has with Zach Parise. Devils edge out the win.
Devils vs. Penguins in the East Finals. There’s honestly not too much to pick between them, which is where Jordan Staal’s line could prove to be the difference again. Entertaining series, but I could see the Pens having just enough to get by the Devils.
So that, incredibly, would mean a third straight match-up of the Wings and Pens in the Stanley Cup Finals. It sounds improbable, no doubt, but the pieces could be in place for it to happen. So who’ll win?
I’m actually more confident in Jimmy Howard than I was in Chris Osgood at this time last year, so goaltending likely won’t lose this series for either team. As good as the Wings have been lately, they are minus some scoring depth compared with last year and that may end up proving to be the difference. This series could, should and probably would go the distance; but I just get the feeling Crosby is going to win back-to-back Cups and that he’ll be the playoff MVP this time around.