Following Alistair Overeem’s recent failed pre-fight drug test our two guest bloggers, Dwight Wakabayashi and Mark Prior, give their thoughts on whether he will ever fight in the UFC again (assuming his hearing with the Nevada State Athletic Commission on April 24 doesn’t go well for him).
They also debate on who should replace him in the UFC 146 main event against champion Junior dos Santos, and as a bonus, who will win Saturday’s UFC Live main event in Sweden between Alexander Gustafsson and Thiago Silva.
Cast your votes as to whose arguments you like better…
1) IS OVEREEM DONE FOR GOOD IN THE UFC?
Wakabayashi: Most likely. He’s tarnished.
A large part of me says we won’t see Overeem in the Octagon again because of the way he lied to his bosses when he said they didn’t have to worry about him passing the drug test and he breached a very generous contact. The UFC made the price right for Overeem to finally come over to North America and it has now backfired.
He likely will not be able to fight in Nevada for a while, and is no longer worth the dollars on his fresh, new contract anymore because he has tarnished his drawing power with the UFC fan base. Not to mention, what fighter will agree to fight him now?
There is no question he has created a vicious quagmire among the UFC brass that will take some time to sort out. Depending on how things go at his hearing on April 24, it could be a very long time before this gets straightened out and we may have seen the last of “The Reem” (or as some have called him, “The Roid”) in the UFC.
Mark Prior: Not necessarily. He’s still too big a draw
I think Overeem will fight in the UFC again regardless of how successful his April 24 meeting is with the NSAC. It’s just a matter of when.
If fighters like Chael Sonnen and Thiago Silva can test positive and still keep their UFC careers intact, than why not Overeem? Whether or not he is able to receive a punishment from the NSAC due to his complicated licensing issue, Overeem could get a slap on the wrist from the UFC and still be given his title shot some time down the line.
Hey, Sonnen was the top middleweight contender when he was busted, and look where he is now — back with a title shot. Meanwhile, Silva even altered his urine sample and he’s back fighting in a main event this Saturday in Sweden.
In my opinion, it won’t be “goodnight Irene” for Overeem in regards to his UFC career. Like Sonnen, he’s too much of a draw and he’s too close to the top for the UFC to cut him.
POLL:
Whose case do you like better?
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2) WHO SHOULD REPLACE OVEREEM?
Wakabayashi: Only one option, and it’s not Mark Hunt
When these types of late withdrawals happen, the UFC often fills the vacant spot with another man in the weight class who was already on the same card. The reasons for that are quite logical and obvious. What isn’t logical and obvious is the social media rallying storm to get beloved veteran Mark Hunt the shot at the title.
I love Mark Hunt. I love his style, love his career and have the utmost respect for his recent run in the cage. But the 8-7 Mark Hunt does not deserve to be considered for a shot at Junior dos Santos right now. This isn’t the movies folks. This isn’t Rocky where an unknown gets thrown into a title shot. In real life there is just too much at stake in keeping the heavyweight division legitimate.
The replacement has to fit at least one of two criteria. One, he has to be a legitimate contender to the title. And that is, right now.
Cain Velasquez and Frank Mir are the two who best fit that criterion, but Dana White has already stated that Cain vs. Mir will happen as planned.
So that takes us to the other criterion: He has to be a top-10 fighter who is a big-name draw. There is only one man who really fits that description and that is Dan Henderson.
Henderson has earned his spot at the top and has been awaiting title shots in either of the two divisions below heavyweight for some time. But he has also stepped up to the big men before in his career and this would be a perfect spot to do it again.
Prior: Henderson’s not a realistic option either
For a moment there, I did consider the Mark Hunt possibility to have some merit. He’s popular, he’s on a nice win streak and he’s a veteran.
But on second thought, I agree it’s ridiculous. The recent wave of all this “rally for hunt” business is nice and all, but there are much better options. Hunt does have the talent, but he hasn’t earned his way to the title shot. Not like guys such as Mir and Velasquez who are already former champions, especially Mir who won his last fight in spectacular fashion and has had quite the comeback since losing to Brock Lesnar.
I also considered the possibility of Henderson stepping up, but I don’t see that going well at all. Henderson seems too small and I don’t think his wrestling will be able to put too much of a dent on dos Santos’ striking offence. I just don’t see this idea of Henderson filling in to be realistic at all either.
That leaves one guy: Fabricio Werdum. I think he should get the shot, especially after his stellar performance against Roy Nelson. He put more of a beating on Nelson than JDS did, and I personally think that catapults him into the top contender spot with Mir ruled out.
POLL:
Whose case do you like better?
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3) BONUS: WHO WINS: GUSTAFSSON OR SILVA?
Dwight: Gustafsson has been more active
Alexander Gustafsson is on a four-fight win streak and has looked very good, and he is also fighting in his home country so you have to believe he’ll be pumped up. But I believe Gustafsson will beat Thiago Silva pretty handily mostly because of one reason: Cage rust.
Silva has been out for 15 months while serving a one-year suspension for a failed drug test after he submitted an altered urine sample following a win over Brandon Vera on Jan. 1, 2011. If this fight was under normal circumstances for Silva — meaning coming off a couple fights and a normal layoff — this one would probably be really good. But as it is I wouldn’t be surprised if Gustafsson knocks him out.
Prior: Silva is too strong
I see this as a KO victory for Silva in the third round. Silva’s Muay Thai has been displayed in his fights at a much higher level than Gustafsson’s. Silva is far too aggressive and is the much stronger of the two.
Yes, Silva hasn’t fought since Jan. 1, 2011, and hasn’t officially won a fight since August 2009 (because his win over Brandon Vera last year was changed to a no contest). And yes, Gustafsson is coming off a string of wins and he’s looking pretty good, but I just can’t see him finishing Silva. He may be able to hang in there and effectively counter-strike Silva’s aggressive style and possibly win a unanimous decision, but I’m personally expecting the home crowd to be leaving disappointed.
POLL:
Whose case do you like better?
$(“#poll_9556”).v2Poll({poll_id: 9556});
Dwight Wakabayashi is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report and a writer/analyst for MMACanada.net.
Mark Prior is a mobile multimedia journalist for The Daily Press. He filmed a mini-documentary on Sportsnet’s Showdown Joe Ferraro.
