Our two sportsnet.ca guest bloggers, Mark Prior of The Daily Press and Dwight Wakabayashi of Bleacher Report, give their main card picks for Saturday’s UFC Live: Diaz vs. Miller.
And to borrow a line from Sportsnet Magazine’s Brady vs. Lang feature, “These guys don’t agree on anything!”
LAVAR JOHNSON VS. PAT BARRY
Wakabayashi: Johnson will land the biggest shot
Pat Barry has given us some of the most exciting wars in the UFC in recent years and I love him for it. My question is; how many wars can a young man’s chin take?
Barry stands and throws until the bitter end and has sustained some real damage with his go-for-broke fighting style. In my opinion, it is that style and that damage that will be his end in this fight. Barry is a more technical striker than Johnson but do any of us believe that Barry will use that advantage wisely to pick Johnson apart?
Once this one gets going and the fans start to roar, Barry will be way too eager to stand and trade as he usually does. Johnson is the bigger man and should have reach and power on his side.
It won’t come down to who has the better technical striking; the key in this one will be who can take a better shot. I believe Barry’s past damage will catch up to him. Much like the Kongo fight, Barry will land more, but once he is hit with that big shot, the lights will go out for him.
The pick: Johnson by second-round KO
Prior: Barry’s kickboxing will see him prevail
It’s safe to say both fighters will avoid the ground and stick to what works for both of them: a standup war.
There is an unlikely possibility that Barry would want to shock those who doubt his submission game, but that gamble is too high for me to take.
Johnson has lost to submissions multiple times in his career, and has won most of his career fights by KO or TKO. After being submitted in two straight fights he bounced back and is now riding a big knockout win over Joey Beltran in his UFC debut.
I still think we’ve yet to see the best of Barry. Yes, he had that tough flash KO loss to Kongo (which looked to be his fight until lightning struck) then suffered a loss to Stephan Struve by triangle choke. But I’m confident in his most recent KO win over Christian Morecraft.
I see Barry unleashing a technical whirlwind of kicks and will eventually break Johnson’s defence and land a head kick in the third round to end it the fight.
I don’t see this fight being anything but fast-paced, and anywhere but the ground.
The pick: Barry by third-round KO
POLL:
Whose case do you like better?
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ALAN BELCHER VS. ROUSIMAR PALHARES
Wakabayashi: Belcher will outlast Palhares
This one is the simple, classic, striker vs. grappler matchup. Belcher is the world-class striker who uses beautiful Muay Thai to damage his opponent’s face. Palhares is the world-class grappler who has mastered the art of taking his opponent’s leg home with him in his fights. It is pretty clear that the fight will be a constant battle of attrition to keep it where each fighter wants it.
Palhares is on a three-fight win streak but those wins are over Mike Massenzio, Dan Miller and Dave Branch, and many of his wins are against opponents who aren’t quite the level of Belcher. When Palhares has had to step up to the likes of Nate Marquardt or Dan Henderson, he has not measured up.
The real difference in this fight will is in the intangible department and I give Belcher a decided edge. Quite frankly, I see Palhares as a real loose cannon who seizes up and looks for a way out when he comes up against a tough opponent who is in it for the long haul.
Belcher is a tough fighter with a strong mental makeup and he won’t be intimidated or tap easily to any lock on any limb. Once Palhares sees that he is in for a long fight, and will have to take some shots to win, he will wilt a under the pressure.
The pick: Belcher by unanimous decision
Prior: Palhares will make Belcher pay for a mistake
Palhares vs. Belcher is the fight I’m looking forward to the most. Regardless of the fact that I personally train under the Brazilian Top Team banner, I’m picking Palhares to win this.
Belcher is no joke, but Palhares is a freak of nature. The mix of power of technique in his elite-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu is second to none in the middleweight division. My question is, which limb of Belcher’s will Palhares take back to Brazil?
I see fireworks shooting off right away, but I expect Belcher to try to switch to his wrestling. The moment Belcher makes a mistake, Palhares will end the fight by submission.
I see Belcher trying to be the alpha male and make the first move. Palhares will definitely play off his back and frustrate Belcher.
The chance of a striking battle is slim to none. Most of the strikes I predict will be to feel out the distance enough to shoot in. I see Palhares reacting to Belcher, who still needs to get back in the spotlight, and will ultimately pay for his aggressiveness.
The pick: Palhares by submission, most likely knee bar
POLL:
Whose case do you like better?
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JOSH KOSCHECK VS. JOHNY HENDRICKS
Wakabayashi: Koscheck will ride his size, experience to victory
Johny Hendricks is coming off a beautiful and quick knockout of Koscheck’s friend and teammate Jon Fitch, thus setting up a nice grudge match in this one. All revenge aside, this is a very juicy and relevant fight to the landscape of the welterweight division, as well as a very evenly-skilled match.
Koscheck is the veteran fighting to avoid gatekeeper status in the division, while Hendricks is the younger, less accomplished up-and-comer. Hendricks is hoping to jump off a win over Koscheck and land right in the hunt for the title. Koscheck says not so fast.
Both fighters are very accomplished wrestlers who have developed power in their hands as well. The Fitch knockout aside, Hendricks has also put the lights out on Charlie Brenneman and Amir Sadollah. He has only lost once in his 13-fight career and that was to Rick Story.
Koscheck has nice knockouts over Yoshiyuki Yoshida, Frank Trigg and Matt Hughes but has also been knocked out himself by Paulo Thiago and may have a suspect chin.
I believe that these fighters are extremely evenly matched in many aspects of the game and it is going to come down to size, strength and experience in this one. Koscheck gets the nod in all three of these intangibles and he will squeak out a decision win using top control and ground and pound.
The pick: Koscheck by split decision
Prior: Hendricks will continue to ride his hot streak
Hendricks is on a hot streak and his awesomely-executed KO over John Fitch is a huge statement. Let’s not forget GSP didn’t put away Fitch in their bout, but Hendricks did!
I’m not on any bandwagon here. If Koscheck isn’t too reckless with his striking, he’ll be able to avoid the sure striking onslaught from Hendricks, but at the same time I just can’t see Kos landing a fight-changing punch. Instead, the only chance I see Kos winning is staying calm and collected, avoid reckless striking, and wrestle out a grinding decision.
If a fighter is pushed to their limit and their game plan is failing, it’s common at that point to see that fighter go back to their roots and use their bread-and-butter. I’ll be bold here and say that I even see Hendricks outstriking Koscheck in round one just enough to flip the magic switch to get him reverted to mostly using his offensive wrestling.
From this point I see Hendricks being able to manage stuffing most takedown attempts, and be able to land that massive left hand to end the fight.
The pick: Hendricks by second-round TKO
POLL:
Whose case do you like better?
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NATE DIAZ VS. JIM MILLER
Wakabayashi: Diaz will benefit from a better overall game
This headline fight has major implications on the title hopes of both fighters and could shape up to be a Fight of The Year candidate.
Diaz is coming off two of his most impressive wins in the UFC with dominant wins over Takanori Gomi and Donald Cerrone. He seems to improve his game each time he hits the cage and this fight will be no different. The younger of the brother fighting duo is growing eerily similar to big brother Nick in his boxing and overall fight style and that is a very good thing for Nate.
Miller is a tough, grinding type of fighter who uses wrestling and pressure to break the heart and will of his opponents on his way to victory and this will be his blueprint for Diaz. Miller is coming off a nice bounce-back performance and win over Melvin Guillard following his loss to current lightweight champion Benson Henderson.
Miller easily broke the will and game of Guillard but Diaz also handled Guillard easily a few years ago. Diaz is an entirely different beast than Guillard both in skill and in mental fortitude and it is going to take a long strategic battle to take him out.
In the end, I believe Diaz will be able to keep this fight standing for at least half the fight and will dominate Miller on the feet with reach and variety. Miller will definitely try to maul Diaz to the ground where he could have success but Diaz will stay out of trouble when on his back and even try a few submissions on Miller.
Diaz will win with a slightly better overall game.
The pick: Diaz by unanimous decision
Prior: Miller will dominate with his superior wrestling
Diaz vs. Miller is definitely going to be a good fight.
Miller’s wrestling is more dominant and if used effectively will devastate Diaz. If Miller can avoid the mind games of Diaz and stay away from the infamous outside range of pepper shots, he will be able to close the distance, shoot in and get the takedowns.
We’ve seen Diaz get thrown around like a rag doll by Rory MacDonald at welterweight, so I think Miller take a page out of this book and will use his grappling to his advantage. Although they are both black belts in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, I give Miller the edge because he has a solid showing of wrestling, which I believe will be the deciding factor in the fight.
If Miller isn’t able to gauge Diaz’s range effectively and quickly, I can see the infamous mind games being used and it will only go downhill from there for Miller. This is the only case I see Miller losing, but I’m confident a wild submission won’t come from anywhere in this fight.
I see Miller dominating Diaz with his superior wrestling, where ground and pound will soften up Diaz and help him go on to victory.
The pick: Miller by unanimous decision
POLL:
Whose case do you like better?
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Dwight Wakabayashi is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report and a writer/analyst for MMACanada.net.
Mark Prior is a mobile multimedia journalist for The Daily Press. He filmed a mini-documentary on Sportsnet’s Showdown Joe Ferraro.
