Our two sportsnet.ca guest bloggers, Dwight Wakabayashi of Bleacher Report and Mark Prior of the Cochrane Times-Post, give their thoughts on the main and co-main event fights Saturday in Japan in Part 2 of their UFC 144 predictions.
QUINTON JACKSON VS. RYAN BADER
Dwight Wakabayashi: Not sold on Bader
Jackson is excited to return to the land where it all began for him in his mixed martial arts career. I’m just not so sure he is as excited to fight and that makes one a tough one to call. Rampage is not as motivated and not the fighter he used to be, but he is returning to a place where he has an incredible fan following and that may be the juice he needs to get past Bader.
With Quinton, the game plan is always set around his punching power and improved head movement and I think he will specifically be looking for the big bomb in this one.
Bader is looking for some redemption in his career and he is coming off a solid bounce-back win over Jason Brilz. He will look to use his dominant wrestling strength to wear out the veteran and look to his own right hand to land the shot that spoils Rampage’s return.
On paper, this one looks like absolute trouble for Jackson. His opponent is young and hungry, something that puts Jackson at an immediate disadvantage. Did Rampage want to be in Japan for the party and to see old friends and not so much for the fight?
It says here that it really doesn’t matter because I am still not sold on the game of Bader.
The pick: Jackson by split decision
Mark Prior: Heart says Rampage, mind says Bader
The Rampage vs. Bader fight is a tough one for me because my heart says Rampage but my mind says Bader.
Both fighters have wrestling backgrounds, so this fight could very well have more striking and less grappling because of this. Rampage isn’t the most technical striker but I think the strategy in this one would be to cut Bader off with angles to avoid flurries of punches and land his power shots.
I can see Bader responding to this strategy by becoming the aggressor and putting on the pressure, tying up Rampage against the cage. I personally think this could be the decline of Rampage since his loss to Jon Jones.
Interestingly enough both fighters have lost to Jones by submission, and although Bader had his little blip with Tito following his loss to the champ, I’m positive he’s going to continue his momentum from his win over Jason Brilz and stop Jackson — perhaps with a TKO in the third round.
If Rampage can’t cut Bader off and his power shots, I believe Bader will take the win by pressuring Rampage to the cage where punches in bunches will result in a decision victory.
The pick: Bader by unanimous decision
FRANKIE EDGAR VS. BENSON HENDERSON
Dwight Wakabayashi: Edgar’s elusiveness will be the difference
The lightweight championship of the world is on the line when these two amazing athletes hit the cage and this one is a battle that may be too tight to call. But Edgar is the proven champion and his elusive boxing, relentless movement and quick switch takedowns will end up being too much for Henderson.
Benson is on an incredible roll right now and he has earned his shot with his skill, will and durability. Henderson will find himself a step behind in the striking battle and will look to get a hold of the champion to throw him down to the mat. I believe this is where Henderson feels he has the advantage but if Gray Maynard had a tough time keeping Edgar down and in control, so will Henderson.
This one is going to be an entertaining war to the delight of the Japanese fans and will last at least until the championship rounds. It will go all over the cage and showcase many aspects of the MMA game.
In the end, Edgar’s in-and-out boxing game will be the deciding factor and he will remain the champion.
The pick: Edgar by unanimous decision
Mark Prior: Henderson is more well-rounded
I like Henderson in the main event because I think he is faster, slightly more athletic, and a more well-rounded fighter than Edgar. The champ has proven the naysayers wrong time and time again, more recently when he faced adversity in the epic rematch and trilogy bouts with Gray Maynard.
I think Edgar may take Henderson down a couple times, but I see Henderson using his strong takedown defence and scrambling to keep this fight standing for the majority if not all of the bout. Henderson is on a three-fight winning streak, all of which ended in decisions because of his superior striking.
Edgar is coming off a TKO of Maynard and while I think the wrestling factor will be pretty much nullified, you can bet Edgar will utilize his striking to complement his wrestling. If this happens effectively, he could grind out a decision win.
But I expect Henderson to keep the fight upright and use his reach to eventually have his hand raised.
The pick: Henderson by TKO in the fourth round
Dwight Wakabayashi is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report and writer/analyst for MMACanada.net.
Mark Prior is a reporter for the Cochrane Times-Post and a part-time videographer who filmed a mini-documentary on Sportsnet’s Showdown Joe Ferraro.
