BY ROB SHAW
sportsnet.ca
1) Chris Johnson, RB, Titans
Responsible for one of the greatest fantasy seasons, Chris Johnson returns for just his third NFL season at the tender age of 25. The good news for his fantasy managers is that the Titans offence returns intact, so don’t expect any major changes when it comes to his role on the team. The one lone concern is Johnson’s heavy workload last season, as he led the NFL with 358 carries and 50 receptions on his way to racking up a monstrous 2,509 total yards of offence. Nonetheless, with his breakaway speed and immense potential, you’d be crazy not to make him the first overall pick of your fantasy draft.
2) Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
With Brett Favre on staff, the Vikings were able to lessen the load on Adrian Peterson last season. In fact, Peterson had his workload cut by 49 rushes, yet he still managed a career-high 18 touchdowns. His greatest flaw was his inability to protect the ball, as Peterson turned the ball over on six occasions via the fumble. Nonetheless, with Brett Favre now officially unretired — again — Peterson should remain fresh, and he has yet to disappoint fantasy managers through three NFL seasons.
3) Ray Rice, RB, Ravens
What’s not to like about Ravens running back Ray Rice? Not only does he have youth on his side at 23 years old, but he is also plenty fresh after racking up just 361 rushes through his first two seasons in the NFL. Rice is a natural born playmaker, and he is very much a dual threat, having secured 78 passes last season for an additional 702 yards. Now that Anquan Boldin has been added to the Ravens offence, fantasy managers should expect more red-zone opportunities, which could translate into an increase to his somewhat lacklustre eight total touchdowns last season.
4) Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars
Always a touchdown magnet, Maurice Jones-Drew proved that he can handle a heavy load last season, racking up 115 more carries than any of his previous seasons. As a result, Jones-Drew established career highs across the board with 1,391 rushing yards and 16 total touchdowns. This season, the Jaguars expect some improvement from the offensive line, creating bigger holes for the diminutive Jones-Drew to sneak through. Of course, there is some concern of a breakdown after the dramatic increase in carries last season. Nonetheless, as of now, Jones-Drew has been remarkably durable.
5) Michael Turner, RB, Falcons
A popular second-overall pick last season in fantasy drafts, Michael Turner endured some hamstring woes that he failed to recover from, forcing him to miss five games and keeping him under 1,000 rushing yards. When he was on the field, Turner was very effective, racking up 4.9 yards per carry and 10 touchdowns. This season, Turner is bound to return to his role as the team’s lead running back; however, the impressive play of Jason Snelling last season may keep Turner’s carries down to a reasonable level. This could work out as an advantage, as Turner should have an easier time avoiding injuries.
6) Frank Gore, RB, 49ers
A veteran with four consecutive years of greater than 1,000 yards rushing, Frank Gore is the lead running back of an improving Niners offence. The greatest obstacle facing Gore is staying healthy. The 5-foot-9, 217-pound running back who dealt with several injuries while playing at Miami has failed to avoid the injury bug at the professional level. In fact, Gore has missed five games over the past two seasons. The good news is that Gore has improved over that span. Last season, Gore formed a nice rapport with quarterback Alex Smith, as he accumulated 52 receptions for 406 yards and a career-best three touchdown grabs. He’ll have every shot at building on those figures this season.
7) Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers
After suffering a major knee injury in 2008, Rashard Mendenhall held his ground last year. Playing all 16 games in a breakout season, Mendenhall gained 1,108 yards on a very efficient 4.6 yards per carry. This season the Steelers will have to rededicate themselves to the ground game now that star wide-out Santonio Holmes will suit up for the Jets and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will miss at least the first four games of the season due to suspension. The end result should be a running back who racks up 1,300-plus yards making Steelers fans forget about the Willie Parker era.
8) Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals
His career did not get off to the start that we expected, however, over the last season and a half, Benson has established himself as a workhorse and a solid fantasy option. After racking up 610 yards in the second half of the 2008 season, Benson established career highs with 1,251 yards and six touchdowns despite missing three games to injury last season. While there are some major questions concerning Benson’s durability, he is a clear number one running back for a team that is expected to improve drastically on offence this season.
9) Steven Jackson, RB, Rams
Though he has done nothing to warrant this negativity, I do not trust Steven Jackson this season. My trepidation is a result of his missing nine games over the last three seasons, his heavy workload last season, and the fact that the Rams are very raw on offence, starting a rookie quarterback and an offensive line that has struggled to stay healthy and effective over the last few years. Additionally, the Rams struggles on offence have had a major impact on Jackson’s ability to find the pay-dirt, as he has scored just 16 rushing touchdowns over the last three seasons. Though I’d happily grab him in the second round, I will not go out of my way to draft Jackson early this season.
10) DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers
Many football fans expected Jonathan Stewart to take over the Carolina backfield by now, but DeAngelo Williams has remained effective and will once again start after averaging more than five yards per carry last season. Williams did slow down a bit at the end of last season, as injuries limited him to 135 yards over his final three games before taking a seat for the remainder of the season. Though Stewart is breathing down his neck, Williams should continue to thrive thanks to the Panthers ability to keep both tailbacks fresh and, therefore, effective for much of the season.
11) Ryan Grant, RB, Packers
Though he may not be a barnburner or a big hulking tailback, Ryan Grant has made a career for himself in the NFL as the starting running back for the Packers. Last season was actually his best yet with a career-high 1,253 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 197 receiving yards. Most impressive was his efficiency in accumulating those totals, as Grant averaged 4.4 yards per rush and 7.9 yards per reception. As the every-down back for a solid Packers offence, there should be gaudy figures coming his way.
12) Ryan Matthews, RB, Chargers
Even without setting foot in an NFL game, the fantasy expectations are sky-high for Ryan Matthews. The 23-year-old was a beast at the college level for Fresno State, which explains why the Chargers invested the 12th overall pick to select him. There is also plenty of opportunity as LaDainian Tomlinson’s move across the country to New York opens the door for a starting spot in the backfield. A rookie campaign with at least 1,000 yards rushing is already the expectation for Mathews.
13) LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles
LeSean McCoy was forced to evolve into a starting running back last season because of all the concussions suffered by veteran Brian Westbrook. Though McCoy was far from dominant, his final tallies were respectable with 637 rushing yards, 308 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. This season the Eagles will have to trust their running game a bit more now that veteran quarterback Donovan McNabb has been traded to the Redskins. While the Eagles are still expected to utilize their passing attack with a solid stable of receivers and a young promising quarterback, McCoy will play a prominent role in the offence, making 1,500 total yards of offence a realistic goal.
14) Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins
It appears as though fantasy managers have still not forgiven Clinton Portis after a disappointing 2009 season. Of course, it was just a year earlier that Portis shined bright with 1,487 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. The concern in D.C. is that there are several backup running backs, including former fantasy standouts Larry Johnson and Willie Parker eager to split the carries, or even steal Portis’ job. Mike Shanahan will have to find a way to keep all those egos happy, but Portis is the clear-cut favourite to earn the starting gig.
15) Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers
Many fantasy managers will be scared away by the Panthers split backfield, but there is actually some great fantasy potential for both running backs. After all, even while splitting carries last season, Stewart racked up 1,133 yards on the ground with 10 rushing touchdowns plus 137 receiving yards and a touchdown reception. Stewart is the more durable of the two tailbacks in Carolina, as he has yet to miss a game in his NFL career. Furthermore, Stewart showcased his ability to dominate on the ground over the final three games of last season with 440 rushing yards and three touchdowns, including a remarkable 206 rushing yards in the Week 16 match-up against the Giants. This is a star on the rise and a solid investment for fantasy managers this season.
16) Shonn Greene, RB, Jets
There are some lofty expectations from the fantasy community on Shonn Greene, but I would preach caution for a number of reasons. First of all, the Jets employ an aging legend LaDainian Tomlinson, who at this stage of his career can evolve as a touchdown vulture and a regular third-down back. After all, LT found the end zone a dozen times last season, despite just 223 total carries. Next everyone is ready to anoint Greene to fantasy excellence, but remember that he only had 108 carries last season and two touchdowns. There are still durability questions that won’t be answered until this season. While I do like Greene and believe that he will be a solid fantasy play, I am not ready to pick him up with a first-round pick.
17) Beanie Wells, RB Cardinals
For the last few years, the ground game has been an afterthought for the Cardinals offence, as Kurt Warner usually opted to put the ball in the air and into the arms of Larry Fitzgerald or Anquan Boldin. Not anymore. Kurt Warner has retired and Anquan Boldin is now playing in Baltimore. The Cardinals will now start the so far unimpressive Matt Leinart at quarterback and will look to balance their offence with an increased emphasis on the ground game. Though Tim Hightower will also contend for carries, Beanie Wells is the better running back. In his rookie campaign, Wells averaged a healthy 4.5 yards per carry while racking up 793 rushing yards and scoring seven touchdowns. Wells played a large role in the Cardinals win over the Packers in the wild-card contest with 91 yards on 14 carries and scored one of the two Cardinals touchdowns against the Saints in the divisional match-up. Expect Wells to continue to evolve into one of the game’s top running backs this season.
18) Matt Forte, RB, Bears
We will soon find out if it was a sophomore slump or merely a market correction, but Matt Forte was a major fantasy disappointment last season. After racking more than 1,700 total yards in his rookie season, Forte racked up 200 fewer yards last season, mostly a result of his ineffectiveness on the ground. In fact, Forte’s average of 3.6 yards per carry was the lowest of any running back with at least 750 yards rushing. This season, the Bears brought in a fallback option in the form of veteran Chester Taylor. This is bad news for Forte’s fantasy managers as further struggles could result in a backup role for the one-time fantasy phenom.
19) Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys
Imagine a running back who averages 6.5 yards per carry. Well one does exist and his name is Felix Jones. All that has stopped Jones from dominating so far has been his inability to stay healthy. Jones has missed 12 games over the last two seasons, but at 23 years old he returns healthy and able. The proof is in the numbers, as Jones averaged a stellar 7.2 yards per carry in the postseason, thanks to a 148-yard performance against the Eagles that led the Cowboys into the second round. He then posted another 69 yards against the Vikings, 45 more than his teammate Marion Barber. Jones is a serious playmaker who should get every chance to shine this season. Even in a split role, 1,000-plus yards with eight touchdowns are realistic.
20) Michael Bush, RB, Raiders
Don’t sleep on the Raiders this season. They have a proven quarterback with the newly acquired Jason Campbell and running back Michael Bush, not the more hyped Darren McFadden, seems to be a rising star. In 31 career games, Bush has racked up 218 carries for 1,010 yards for a healthy 4.6 yards per carry, along with an additional 267 receiving yards. With McFadden missing time due to hamstring woes this training camp, Bush is looking more and more like the starting running back for the Raiders.
21) C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills
The Bills running backs have been dropping like flies and C.J. Spiller is the last man standing. The ninth-overall pick of the 2010 draft, Spiller was expected to contend with veterans Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch for the starting spot in the backfield. Instead, he is likely the only one of the trio who will see some preseason action. He has sure looked good in the preseason, most recently exploding for a 31-yard touchdown to open up the scoring against the Indianapolis Colts. Assuming he can stay healthy, Spiller should rack up 1,000-plus yards and at least a half dozen touchdowns.
22) Arian Foster, RB, Texans
We were expecting fierce competition in Houston’s backfield, but an ankle injury to rookie Ben Tate changes the story. Steve Slaton is the most accomplished runner, but his struggles fumbling the ball are well-documented, and losing the ball on the goal line in a preseason game did not help his cause. On the other hand, Arian Foster had some momentum coming into the season with 216 rushing yards and three touchdowns over the final two games of last season. So far Foster has been the most impressive tailback in training camp for the Texans, which could pay major dividends if he ends up as the lead running back for one of the NFL’s top offences.
23) Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos
Coming into the off-season, Knowshon Moreno was creeping up the list as a potential breakout running back, but then a hamstring injury ended his training camp and put the season opener in question. There is still plenty to be proven by Moreno at the professional level. He has yet to break the 100-yard rushing mark in a game and finished his first season with an unimpressive ratio of 3.8 yards per carry.
24) Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants
A seventh-round pick by the Giants in the 2007 draft, Ahmad Bradshaw is a very promising young talent who happens to own a sensational 5.2 yards per carry average through his first three seasons in the NFL. Last season, Bradshaw accumulated 985 yards of total offence and scored seven touchdowns. The strong performance may have been enough to eclipse Brandon Jacobs as the team’s starting running back this season. In particular, his ability to attack off the pass makes him a valuable asset to the Giants offence. Expect Bradshaw to rack up a combined 1,200 yards with eight touchdowns this upcoming season.
25) Jerome Harrison, RB, Browns
There was no better running back in the NFL over the final three weeks of the season than Browns veteran Jerome Harrison. The 27-year-old was a workhorse with 106 carries over that span for 561 yards and five touchdowns. Nonetheless, his fantasy value is anything but guaranteed this season. The Browns invested in running back Montario Hardesty in the second round of the NFL draft, and head coach Eric Mangini has made it clear that he prefers to have a stable of running backs rather than one star. Due to a training camp injury to Hardesty, Harrison will have every shot at starting for the Browns, but there is no guarantee that he will be finishing the season in that valuable role.
26) Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins
Once considered a star on the rise, fantasy managers have lost their patience with the injury-prone Dolphins running back Ronnie Brown. Only once in his career has Brown played all 16 games in a season, and he has never accumulated as many as 250 carries in a season. On that note, the Dolphins will do everything possible to keep Brown healthy this season, which is why they will once again deploy a split backfield. Brown will enjoy some solid performances as usual, but do not make the mistake of pegging him as an every-down back.
27) Jamal Charles, RB, Chiefs
There were few running backs that were as effective as Jamaal Charles over the last eight games of the 2009 season. In total, Charles racked up 968 yards on the ground over that span with seven touchdowns along with 158 receiving yards and an additional touchdown via the pass. Those figures would normally grant Charles access into the top 10 rankings at his position, but the Chiefs surprised everyone by signing veteran running back Thomas Jones this off-season. Despite Jones’ advanced age, the former Jets and Bears running back is very much in his prime and will likely create an even split with Charles in the backfield. The end result is lowered expectations for the 23-year-old Texas native who will likely have to make due with 15 carries per game.
28) Jahvid Best, RB, Lions
There was once a time that Adrian Peterson, unquestionably the best collegiate running back during his Oklahoma heyday, was considered a major risk for the Vikings because of his injury woes. The same is being said of Lions first-round pick Jahvid Best, a superstar at California who struggled to remain on the field. So far, similar to Peterson, Best has been durable through training camp. He is earning nothing but praise from the coaching staff and will likely commence his NFL career as the Lions starting tailback.
29) Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints
He may be the lead running back for the Super Bowl champions, but that does not guarantee fantasy bliss for Pierre Thomas. The 5-foot-11, 215-pound running back has several issues that have plagued his fantasy value. He struggles to stay on the field, having missed seven games over the last three seasons. The Saints are very much a pass-first offence, which explains why Thomas has yet to get as many as 150 carries in an NFL season. Finally, the playmaking prowess of Reggie Bush splits the backfield, limiting Thomas’ touches each season. Furthermore, even the Saints dominant play is a fantasy hindrance, as Thomas is often rested at the end of each season. His lack of dependability from a fantasy perspective limits his value to a third-string option.
30) Justin Forsett, RB, Seahawks
No question about it, Justin Forsett was the best Seahawks running back last season, averaging 5.4 yards per carry with 619 rushing yards, 350 receiving yards, and five total touchdowns. However, the Seahawks 2008 seventh-round pick was not guaranteed a starting gig entering this season, and when the Seahawks traded for Jets playmaker Leon Washington, there were some questions whether Forsett would play in a backup role. Furthermore, a new coaching staff in Seattle allows perennial disappointment Julius Jones with a shot at winning the starting role, so the competition is as fierce as ever. So far, there has been no clear winner, but considering Forsett has been the most impressive on the field recently, he’s the favourite to land the starting role.