Fantasy NFL: Shaw’s Friday breakdown

We have our first bye weeks this weekend, which makes the decisions all the more difficult for fantasy managers, who are forced to settle for second-string stars to replace their top talents.

When sorting through the fray, fantasy managers should consider match-ups, depth charts, and recent performances.

Here’s a preview of Week Four’s contests from a fantasy perspective:

49ERS AT FALCONS

The 49ers may be off to a rough start with three losses, but Frank Gore has been solid in fantasy with 396 total yards of offense and two touchdowns. Alex Smith meanwhile, is averaging a career-best 244 passing yards per game, which has some logic since he is usually playing catch-up after falling behind by several points early in games. He is a fantasy liability this week, just like much-hyped wide out Michael Crabtree. After scoring 13 touchdowns last season, Vernon Davis has yet to find the end zone in 2010, but he’s still better than most at tight end.

Michael Turner bounced back from a poor performance last week, with 114 rushing yards and a touchdown. Turner as well as Roddy White and Matt Ryan, are all fine options this weekend. Tony Gonzalez is also worth starting, after getting out of his rut last week. On the other hand, Jason Snelling is only a go in very deep leagues.

JETS AT BILLS

The Jets played like superstars last week, which bodes well for the fantasy value of Mark Sanchez, Braylon Edwards, LaDainian Tomlinson, and especially Dustin Keller. Shonn Greene should also be a fine starting option against the lowly Bills.

The Bills made some progress on offense last week, but they are not good enough to hang with the Jets. I would only consider starting Marshawn Lynch and CJ Spiller in very deep leagues.

RAVENS AT STEELERS

The Ravens will have their hands full once again, with a very good defense. Joe Flacco is not the worst start in the world, but there are better options out there. I do like Anquan Boldin this weekend and Ray Rice will get his 100 total yards, but likely won’t find the end zone.

The Steelers may get their first loss of the season, thanks to a formidable foe in the Ravens defense. I would still start Rashard Mendenhall and probably Hines Ward, but Charlie Batch and Mike Wallace should be avoided.

PANTHERS AT SAINTS

The Panthers may be the most disappointing team in the NFL this season, when it comes to fantasy worth. Matt Moore, who was fantastic at the end of last season, has already been pulled for the ineffective rookie Jimmy Clausen. This move has severely hampered the value of Steve Smith. In the backfield, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have both stalled as well.

The Saints should be in great shape this weekend. I’m banking on Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Pierre Thomas, and even Lance Moore to produce against the Panthers. The Saints defense, is also an excellent start against a shaky Clausen.

BRONCOS AT TITANS

I expect the Broncos passing game to keep posting big numbers, which means Kyle Orton and Brandon Lloyd are obvious starts. I also like rookie Demaryius Thomas and Eddie Royal. While Jabar Gaffney has been great, I wonder how many Broncos targets can continue to post big numbers. Knowshon Moreno will likely sit out again, which makes the Broncos running game avoidable.

The Titans have been pretty streaky this season, though Chris Johnson remains a constant in the starting lineup. Vince Young and anyone else involved in the passing game however, is a roll of the dice.

BENGALS AT BROWNS

Carson Palmer has been a disappointmen and you have to wonder whether he has what it takes to return to fantasy prominence. Chad Ochocinco remains a top target, while Terrell Owens is a little bit better than average. Cedric Benson goes against an underrated rush defense this weekend, but is still worth playing.

The Browns have one major fantasy talent and his name is Peyton Hillis. Forget Jerome Harrison again this weekend. The Browns defense is surprisingly one of the better values in fantasy football.

LIONS AT PACKERS

Jahvid Best is the Lions top fantasy weapon this season, but so far his running has actually been quite dull. The only Lions talent I’d start this week would be Calvin Johnson and possibly Shaun Hill, since the Lions will be playing catch-up.

The Packers should be loaded with fantasy stars this weekend in the passing attack between Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, Jermichael Finley, and James Jones. In the backfield, I like John Kuhn more than Brandon Jackson.

SEAHAWKS AT RAMS

The Seahawks passing attack should have some success against the Rams this weekend. That makes Matt Hasselbeck and John Carlson worth starting. The backfield remains a mess, but Justin Forsett has the most value. Leon Washington should only be considered if special teams production counts.

The Rams are uncertain whether Steven Jackson will play, but either way I like Kenneth Darby. Sam Bradford brings some intrigue into the passing attack, making Mark Clayton and Danny Amendola fine fantasy options.

COLTS AT JAGUARS

Peyton Manning should have a field day against the Jaguars. Once he builds the early lead, expect Joseph Addai to enjoy plenty of carries. Austin Collie, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark will all shine as well.

This might be the last start for David Garrard. The Colts are good against the pass, and if Garrard has a third awful game in a row, the Jaguars may be ready to turn to Trent Edwards. Maurice Jones-Drew actually has a great match-up, remember it was the Colts that were embarrassed earlier by Arian Foster.

TEXANS AT RAIDERS

As a Matt Schaub manager, I’m nervous that the Texans may once again deploy a strategy of moving the ball on the ground behind Arian Foster. Particularly with Andre Johnson ailing. Nonetheless, Schaub, Johnson, Kevin Walter, and Jacoby Jones are all must-starts.

The Raiders have a special talent in Darren McFadden, who is now an every week start until his next injury. I also like Louis Murphy and Zach Miller. A roll of the dice would be Darrius Heyward-Bey.

CARDINALS AT CHARGERS

The Cardinals are in some trouble, as they not only play against a solid defense but also injuries have wiped out nearly the entire receiving corps, with the exception of Larry Fitzgerald. Max Komar would be a risky option as Steve Breaston’s replacement. Both running backs are decent fantasy options, now that Beanie Wells joins Tim Hightower in the backfield.

I like the Chargers this weekend and expect big numbers from Philip Rivers, Malcom Floyd, Antonio Gates, and even Legedu Naanee. The bigger question, is whether Ryan Matthews will become a 20-carry back or if Mike Tolbert will continue to blossom.

REDSKINS AT EAGLES

The big question in this game is who will get more carries, the veteran Clinton Portis or the unproven Ryan Torain. I would avoid both if possible and only start targets Santana Moss and Chris Cooley. I fear unfavorable results from McNabb in this contest.

The Eagles should be fine in this one with Michael Vick again leading the way. DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy are both definite starts, while Brent Celek and Jeremy Maclin are also worth a look.

BEARS AT GIANTS

Jay Cutler is one of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL right now. You might as well ride the heat wave along with Johnny Knox and I like Greg Olsen. Matt Forte is a fine running back pick as well, as he can rack up plenty of receptions in this match-up.

The Giants should move the ball in the air once again, making Eli Manning a fine option for what could end up being a quarterback duel. That makes Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith fine fantasy options. Ahmad Bradshaw is worth starting, but will be in a tough match-up against the Bears defence.

PATRIOTS AT DOLPHINS

Tom Brady and Randy Moss are must-starts, but let’s see if former Dolphins wide out Wes Welker will be able to return to prominence, after two less than stellar performances. Look for BenJarvus Green-Ellis to enjoy another big performance. Between the two talented rookie tight ends, I really like Aaron Hernandez.

The Dolphins have themselves a passing game these days, with Chad Henne thriving now that he has Brandon Marshall on the wings. I also like Devone Bess as a second option. In the backfield, Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams share limited value.

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