BY MIKE JOHNSTON
SPORTSNET.CA
UFC light-heavyweight champion Jon (Bones) Jones will walk into the Air Canada Centre a 5-1 favourite over Lyoto (The Dragon) Machida in the main event at UFC 140.
Jones has steadily improved since debuting with the organization in August 2008 and has been dominant in recent wins over former champions Quinton (Rampage) Jackson and Mauricio (Shogun) Rua.
This has lead fans and fighters alike to predict that the 24-year-old champ will defend his title rather easily on Saturday. People just aren’t giving Machida — a former champion himself — much of a chance to dethrone Jones.
“Is (Machida) capable? Of course he’s capable, 100 per cent. Will he do it? I don’t think so,” said Tito Ortiz who fought Machida at UFC 84.
“I think Jon Jones is on a roll. His confidence is through the roof and he feels untouchable. Machida’s not a punch and knockout kind of guy. Jon Jones is just hard to hit because he’s so long.”
Stylistically, the main event is an interesting matchup because both fighters are known for their ability to control distance so well. Jones with his tremendous reach advantage; Machida with speed and footwork.
The Nogueira brothers train with Machida, so they are biased in their opinions. However, looking at the fight objectively, both say that Machida’s speed will play a major role in the outcome.
“Lyoto is really good to fight against (Jones) because of the distance,” Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira said.
“The big advantage (for) Jones, he plays good with his reach, and Lyoto plays good because of karate and stuff. This is a distance fight.”
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira admits Machida is in for a challenge, but believes in his teammate.
“It’s going to be a tough fight but I think Lyoto is faster than (Jones) so he has a good chance to win this fight,” Lil Nog said.
Machida is known as an intelligent fighter, taking little damage in his UFC career.
“Lyoto is more strategic, so it’s going to be an interesting fight to watch,” Big Nog said.
“Jones is prime time right now. I mean the kid is really comfortable in the Octagon. He kicks, he throws elbows, he’s a good boxer, an amazing wrestler, he’s getting confident on the ground so he throws up flying triangles and good things. He’s a good guy to watch.”
Former UFC heavyweight champion Frank Mir believes that although Machida has good movement, his awkward style won’t match up well against Jones’ awkward style.
“I think it’s a rough fight for Machida to be honest with you because he has to stay on the outside,” Mir said.
“If he leaps in to get (inside Jones’ reach), does he really want to get in? I mean he can’t wrestle with Jones. He’s going to get (taken down). I think it’s going to be a rough fight for him especially because he doesn’t throw looping punches.”
Mir, who in addition to fighting is an experienced fight analyst and commentator, said Machida will need to change up his style to have success.
“If I were to break down how would I beat Jones? Okay well I’d move my head … How do you beat a guy who’s tall with a good jab? Overhand shots, you know, like a Frazier vs. Ali type. Frazier gave up a lot of range, but he kept his head moving and he was able to come over the top every time Ali tried to extend.
“That would be a good game plan, but Machida’s never shown that in his repertoire. He has the straight punch off the back side and the jumping in, jumping out. That’s just a lot of range to give up. He’s going to have to jump out and jump out really far to get away from the reach. And if he jumps in and thinks, ‘okay I’ll fight an inside fight,’ I don’t think he can win that fight any easier than he can win the outside fight,” Mir added.
Despite a title being on the line and Jones being considered the future face of the UFC, the event has not garnered as much attention as other events in 2011. There are still some available tickets just one day before the event.
While Mir finds the stylistic matchup an interesting one to analyze, others think it could make for a lackluster fight.
“I think it’ll be a boring fight,” said Ortiz.
“I think it’ll be a five-rounder, unless Jon Jones puts the pressure. And, we’ll see, I mean that’s what championship fights are all about. That’s what UFC is all about. You never know who’s going to win.”
Tito Ortiz fights Rogerio Nogueira in a featured light-heavyweight bout at UFC 140, while in the co-main event Frank Mir takes on Rodrigo Nogueira in a rematch of their UFC 92 interim title fight.
Watch a UFC 140 preview show starting at 6 p.m. ET / 3 p.m. PT followed by four live preliminary fights starting at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT on Sportsnet on Saturday, Dec. 10.
POLL:
Who will win the main event at UFC 140?
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