A panel of six Sportsnet.ca MMA contributors give their picks for Saturday’s full UFC 154: St-Pierre vs. Condit card…
ST-PIERRE VS. CONDIT
Ryan Young: St-Pierre via decision. Condit’s best chance of winning this fight is by striking with Georges so expect him to wind up on his back sooner rather than later.
Dwight Wakabayashi: Condit via unanimous decision. I think ring rust will really be the difference in this one, and the ultra hungry Condit will build up a points lead before GSP can get warm and comfortable. It will be a lead that will be too much to overcome.
E. Spencer Kyte: Condit, TKO, Round 3: This just feels like a perfect storm scenario for GSP to get beaten. Condit has a deep offensive arsenal, is ultra-aggressive, and you can’t break his will.
Brad Taschuk: St-Pierre via Decision. Even if GSP isn’t 100 per cent, Condit has been outwrestled by fighters worse than say an 80 per cent St-Pierre.
Mike Johnston: St-Pierre by decision. Speed will be a factor and he will literally beat Condit to the punch to be one step ahead.
James Brydon: St-Pierre by submission. As much as Condit is dangerous, especially under these circumstances, I really only see only one way Condit can win, which is by catching GSP, and I don’t see it happen. The longtime champ is just too good, even after a long layoff.
KAMPMANN VS. HENDRICKS
Ryan Young: Hendricks via decision. I’m going with Hendricks because of his one-shot knockout power and wrestling background but Kampmann just always seems to find a way to win. No confidence in this pick whatsoever.
Dwight Wakabayashi: Kampmann via unanimous decision. I have decided it is not wise to pick against Kampmann, and I think his striking will be better in this one. If Kampmann doesn’t play with fire and take shots from Hendricks, it will be a statement fight and more lopsided than you think.
E. Spencer Kyte: Kampmann, unanimous decision: “The Hitman” is just too technical for Hendricks in my opinion. He has very good takedown defense, and can pick anyone apart in space on the feet.
Brad Taschuk: Hendricks via Decision. For once, Kampmann’s resilience won’t overcome his propensity to back straight up and get caught with big punches.
Mike Johnston: Kampmann by decision. Hendricks has a shot at a knockout blow, but Kampmann can pick him apart like he did against Rick Story.
James Brydon: Kampmann by decision. If Ellenberger couldn’t knock the Dane out (even if he nearly did), Hendricks won’t.
CARMONT VS. LAWLOR
Ryan Young: Carmont via decision. The Frenchman has the more well-rounded skillset but I think people are overlooking Lawlor’s potential for an upset. Carmont has started slowly in in the past, something I wouldn’t advise doing against a UFC vet like Lawlor.
Dwight Wakabayashi: Carmont via split decision. Both these men excel when the fight is in close but I think Carmont has a decided edge in power and will use that to get dominant position on Lawlor all night
E. Spencer Kyte: Carmont, TKO, Round 1: “Limitless” has looked better with each subsequent appearance, and as entertaining as Lawlor is, he doesn’t have the weaponry to hang with Carmont here.
Brad Taschuk: Carmont via 2nd Round Submission. When Lawlor gets tired he makes mistakes in the grappling game. Look for Carmont to take advantage and finish him late.
Mike Johnston: Carmont by submission. The Tristar product has underrated grappling and Lawlor will be susceptible.
James Brydon: Carmont by TKO, Round 1. Carmont is a beast while Lawlor has just been barely hanging on to his spot in the UFC.
HOMINICK VS. GARZA
Ryan Young: Hominick via decision. Never know what you’re going to get out of Hominick these days but if he can’t out-strike Garza en route to a W I can tell you what’s coming his way…a pink slip.
Dwight Wakabayashi: Hominick via unanimous decision. Hominick is the more well rounded fighter and I think he will be able to use more tools to dictate this fight. Watch for him to break Garza’s body down as his key to victory.
E. Spencer Kyte: Hominick, TKO, Round 2: If all goes well, this should look a lot like Hominick’s victory over George Roop. Hominick is too quick and accurate with his hands for Garza to be able to close the distance and work his submission game. “The Machine” stops him with a body shot in the second.
Brad Taschuk: Hominick via Decision. Although Hominick’s chin worries me, Garza doesn’t have the type of power that should really threaten him as he goes about a 15-minute kickboxing clinic.
Mike Johnston: Hominick by KO/TKO. Mark looks fantastic physically, knows his back is against the wall and fights well against taller opponents.
James Brydon: Hominick by TKO, Round 3. The only advantage Garza has is his height and length, but that wasn’t a problem at all for Hominick against Roop. He’s just much more technically sound.
BOCEK VS. DOS ANJOS
Ryan Young: Bocek via decision. How this fight didn’t make the main card is beyond me. Tough, grinding fight that Bocek squeaks a decision out of thanks to his grappling and some home country judging.
Dwight Wakabayashi: Bocek via unanimous decision. This is a fight between two very different fighters who both have the same goal in mind. The winner here will be on the cusp of the lightweight top ten and a very big fight in the near future. dos Anjos likes to bring aggression and electricity to the cage while Bocek likes to smother any weapons his opponent has.
Bocek’s game is low risk and flawless when executed while dos Anjos can be wild and reckless.
E. Spencer Kyte: Dos Anjos, unanimous decision: This one could go either way, but I’ll gibe the edge to the Brazilian because he’s shown more development in his stand-up.
Brad Taschuk: Bocek via Decision. In one of the better fights on the card, Bocek’s grappling lets him eek out a decision against dos Anjos.
Mike Johnston: Dos Anjos by decision. Bocek is a ground wizard but the Brazilian can nullify his attack and has more dangerous striking.
James Brydon: Dos Anjos by TKO. Bocek seems to come up short in the big fights and I think the fast Dos Anjos will catch him in this one.
COTE VS. SAKARA
Ryan Young: Cote via first round knockout. These two are going to throw caution to the wind and let the leather fly. I like Sakara to drop first.
Dwight Wakabayashi: Cote via KO 2nd Rd. Cote needs this win badly while you never really know what you are gonna get fro Sakara. Cote has tighter and more powerful strikes, especially in his right hand and he should be able to land it and get the KO similar to what Brian Stann did to Sakara in his last fight
E. Spencer Kyte: Cote, TKO, Round 2: Both will be firing bombs from the outset, but Cote has the better chin. Sakara will get caught, and the crowd will erupt.
Brad Taschuk: Cote via Decision. Neither Cote nor Sakara are as aggressive as they once were, but the Canadian does enough to win a decision in this one.
James Brydon: Cote by decision. Sakara is way too inconsistent and I believe Cote is finally back to the form both mentally and physically that at one point had him as No. 1 contender.
Mike Johnston: Cote by KO. Cote has the power and Sakara doesn’t have the chin, plus he didn’t look good at the weigh-ins.
DIABATE VS. GRIGGS
Ryan Young: Diabate via second round TKO. Diabate has never overly impressed me, but Griggs has yet to prove he even belongs in the Octagon. I don’t expect much of a winner out of this one, just a loser.
Dwight Wakabayashi: Diabate via unanimous decision. Two big men will battle here and I’m guessing it won’t last long. Diabate has strength in abundance and he will look to bully Griggs around the cage on Saturday night. Griggs will look to load up the power in his hands and try to put Diabate’s lights out. I just don’t think he has the crispness or cardio to get it done
E. Spencer Kyte: Griggs, TKO, Round 2: Never been overly impressed with Diabate, and you know Griggs will be swinging for the fences from the outset. He’s a better fit at light heavyweight too.
Brad Taschuk: Diabate via 2nd Round TKO. ‘The Snake’ digs the grave of Griggs’ UFC career with a stoppage.
Mike Johnston: Diabate by TKO. Griggs is a strong brawler, but Diabate has the length and precision.
James Brydon: Griggs, by decision. I think Griggs will do well at this weight and he has age on his side in this fight.
STOUT VS. MAKDESSI
Ryan Young: Stout via decision. Makdessi can take a pretty good punch which should be a useful skill in this contest.
Dwight Wakabayashi: Stout via unanimous decision. It’s Canuck vs Canuck in this one and Makdessi is taking a step up to Stout in this one. Both these men love to stand and strike and this is a clear fight of the night candidate. Stout’s experience, well rounded game and new confidence in his corner will out do an inexperienced Makdessi.
E. Spencer Kyte: Stout, unanimous decision: The addition of a takedown game – or just the threat of a takedown – makes Stout even more dangerous, and he’s always been a very technical, efficient striker. He picks Makdessi apart over 15 minutes.
Brad Taschuk: Stout via Decision. In a battle of two strikers, Stout’s more well-rounded game keeps Makdessi off balance for 15 minutes.
Mike Johnston: Stout by decision. Stylistically Stout’s striking matches up well against Makdessi.
James Brydon: Stout by decision. Like his teammate Hominick, Stout is just much better technically, especially now that he’s found a dedicated coach again with Mark DellaGrotte.
CARVALHO VS. DAMM
Ryan Young: Carvalho via third round TKO. Was really impressed with Damm on TUF: Brazil prior to his injury. This one will be war.
Dwight Wakabayashi: Carvalho via unanimous decision. Carvalho is coming into his own in his career and should be able to use his well-rounded game to win on points over Damm.
E. Spencer Kyte: Carvalho, TKO, Round 2: People forget that “Pato” was a top 10 featherweight before he took a break from competing. He may not make it all the way back, but he seems to be getting more comfortable with each fight, and I believe he’s better than Damm regardless of where this fight goes.
Brad Taschuk: Carvalho via 1st Round TKO. Damm’s frail chin is unable to stand up to the striking prowess Carvalho possesses.
Mike Johnston: Carvalho by KO. The Canadian’s hands have looked great of late and striking isn’t Damm’s biggest strength.
James Brydon: Carvalho by decision. Carvalho is a veteran and primed to settle into a groove in the UFC after all these years.
RIDDLE VS. MAGUIRE
Ryan Young: Riddle via decision. I fell asleep during Maguire’s last fight whereas Riddle likely just burnt out. Still going with Cheech.
Dwight Wakabayashi: Riddle via unanimous decision. Riddle has made quite a living as a last minute fighter and is coming off a nice performance even though he tested positive for marijuana. Maguire looked very ordinary in his recent loss against John Hathaway.
E. Spencer Kyte: Riddle, unanimous decision: Riddle is a monster at 170, and Maguire should really probably cut to ’55. Size (and Riddle’s wrestling) dictate the outcome of this one.
Brad Taschuk: Riddle via Decision. For the second straight bout, Maguire struggles from the bottom against a bigger, stronger fighter.
Mike Johnston: Riddle by decision. Two strong grapplers but Riddle should have the strength to gain dominant positions.
James Brydon: Maguire by decision. Merely a hunch, but I see Maguire hungrier and eager to show that his loss to Hathaway was a fluke.
MENJIVAR VS. GASIMOV
Ryan Young: Menjivar via decision. Too experienced and overall well-rounded for Gashimov.
Dwight Wakabayashi: Gasimov via TKO 2nd Round. Menjivar has more pedigree and technical skill. However, it may be tough for Menjivar to get up for a fight with a debut fighter. Gasimov is no joke though, and he will be hungry to make a big splash in his debut.
E. Spencer Kyte: Menjivar, unanimous decision: I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Gashimov win his debut, but I make it a practice to rarely pick the unproven newcomer in the debut, especially when they’re taking on a seasoned veteran.
Brad Taschuk: Menjivar via 1st Round Submission. Gashimov is woefully outmatched in this one, and Menjivar should get the home crowd off to a good start as a result.
Mike Johnston: Menjivar by submission. Experience and the fact he’s fighting at home should shine through.
James Brydon: Menjivar by decision. The Montrealer will be too strong for the newcomer.
SILER VS. ELKINS
Ryan Young: Elkins via decision. Siler has impressed me more and more with every fight but I don’t think he’s quite on Elkins’ level just yet.
Dwight Wakabayashi: Elkins via unanimous decision. Elkins has slightly more experience and will be the more well rounded fighter. I believe that will be the difference in this one. He won’t get the finish though.
E. Spencer Kyte: Siler, TKO, Round 1: I never thought I would type these words, but I think Siler is the real deal. He’s looked better with each appearance, and his confidence keeps growing.
Brad Taschuk: Siler via Decision. Scuba Steve continues to show why he is one of the most underrated Featherweights on the roster by out striking another opponent.
Mike Johnston: Elkins by decision. Elkins will try to take this fight to the ground and smother Siler.
James Brydon: Siler, TKO, Round 1. They don’t call him Super for nothing.
