The NBA’s opening night for the 2019-20 campaign was all the way back on Oct. 22, 2019 and 344 days later, on Sept. 30, 2020, the season’s Finals will get going at last.
A highly marketable affair between the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat with legitimate stars on both sides from two of the NBA’s marquee markets, this is also one of the most lopsided matchups in recent Finals history – at least on paper.
As the No. 1 seed in the West and with pre-season championship aspirations, the Lakers are supposed to be in this position whereas just about no one had the No. 5 Heat making it this far. But here they are, and while just about no one’s giving them a chance, Miami is a team that has thrived on peoples’ doubt all season long, so why should it be any different, right?
And regardless of the ultimate outcome of the series, for both teams to make it this far all the way to the Finals is something to be very proud of. Not only is making a Finals already a tremendous accomplishment under normal circumstances, but to do is in the midst of a global pandemic and during much social unrest inside an isolated bubble requires a special kind of mental fortitude to not lose focus and keep your mind on the task at hand.
“It's probably been the most challenging thing I've ever done as far as a professional, as far as committing to something and actually making it through,” said LeBron James of the bubble experience during Finals media day Tuesday. “But I knew when I was coming what we were coming here for. I would be lying if I sat up here and knew that everything inside the bubble, the toll that it would take on your mind and your body and everything else, because it's been extremely tough.
“But I'm here for one reason and one reason only, and that's to compete for a championship. That was my mindset once I entered the bubble, once I entered the quarantine process the first two days. Then right from my first practice, my mindset was to – if I'm going to be here – make the most of it and see what you can do and lock in on what the main thing is. The main thing was for us to finish the season and compete for a championship.”
Both the Lakers and the Heat have appeared to have little issues locking in when required, with both teams sporting a 12-3 record across the post-season.
The strength the Lakers and Heat have found under less-than-ideal circumstances has made them both worthy finalists and it all just comes down to one more first-to-four series. Here’s a closer look at this Finals matchup:
Team comparison
Want to know what we mean when we say this is a lopsided matchup? Just take a look at the chart below and see the number of the major statistical categories where the Lakers are advantaged over the Heat:
These are statistics from this post-season only and although this isn't head-to-head stuff, given the fact both teams have played 15 games each against relatively similar level of competition, it paints a pretty good picture for the conclusion that just about everyone is coming to: L.A. is the better team and is more likely to win the championship.
And even without looking at the team stats during the playoffs, most would come to the same conclusion just by comparing either sides’ stars.
The Lakers are led by a pair of legitimate perennial MVP contenders in James and Anthony Davis. During the post-season, they’ve combined to average a ridiculous 55.5 points, 19.6 rebounds and 12.5 assists per game on 55.9 per cent shooting from the floor and a 35.5 per cent clip from deep.
They’re a top-heavy team as Kyle Kuzma is the only other double-digit scorer for them in the playoffs (averaging 10.5 per contest), but with that kind of production coming from your two horses, you don’t really need much of the margins filled in.
The Heat, on the hand, sport a more egalitarian approach with six different players averaging double-digits in these playoffs, headlined by their star trio of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and veteran point guard Goran Dragic.
But as talented as this trio is, their productivity still can’t stack up to that of James and Davis, who also happen to be the two best players in the series.
Traditionally, the team with the best player in the series will win (just look at what the Toronto Raptors did with Kawhi Leonard last year for reference), and to have the two best players is pretty much curtain’s call, in theory at least.
Hence the “underdog” tag the Heat have been levied with, not that either team is admitting to buy into that narrative right now.
“I really don't view them that way, to be honest,” said Lakers coach Frank Vogel. “They're 12-3 in these playoffs, just like us. They've beaten three teams – Milwaukee, on pace for a 60-win season, and Boston and Indiana with plus 50-win seasons.”
Added Butler: “Not going to say that we're any better than anybody else, but I just don't think that we're underdogs. I don't. So what that nobody picked us to be here. That's OK. Pretty sure nobody is picking us to win, either. That's OK. But we understand that. We embrace that, because at the end of the day we truly don't care. We're just going to go out here and compete, play together like we always have and I'm going to see where we end up. But at the end of the day we're going to do this our way, the Miami Heat way, and that way has worked for us all year long.”
Key matchup: AD vs. Bam
Though the matchup of James vs. Butler is an enticing one, the key matchup from each game will come down to the battle between big men Davis and Adebayo.
This is because these two players, essentially, make their teams’ offences go.
Davis leads the Lakers in scoring this post-season, averaging 28.8 points per game and is the primary option on just about every trip down the floor when he’s on the court.
This isn’t to say James isn’t also looking for some of his own, but the luxury having a player like Davis who the Lakers can dump the ball into the post and just have him get a bucket – in addition to utilizing him in other capacities such as in the pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop – makes him a better fit as Los Angeles’ offensive fulcrum and it allows James to be more of that natural playmaker he’s always been.
Turning attention to Adebayo now, much like Denver Nuggets star centre Nikola Jokic the Lakers saw in their Western Conference Final, Adebayo is an adept passer and playmaker for man at his size. Though there’s an argument to be had over who is actually the better passing big between Jokic and Adebayo, it’s undeniable that the Heat centre is far more athletic and will present a much different challenge than Jokic.
Adebayo is deadly in the roll game after setting picks for his teammates and unlike Jokic, the threat of the lob is always present with him on the floor as well. He doesn’t take three-pointers so his offensive game isn’t as varied, but he will still be able to punish the Lakers because his vision is so good that when he catches the ball there’s a good chance he’ll be looking to give it up immediately to an open shooter in the corner or a cutting teammate diving towards the basket. This includes when he’s diving to the basket himself.
Adebayo’s superior size, athleticism and vision allows him to make reads and passes that other players simply can’t and it’s always in the Heat’s best interest to find a way to get him the ball when he’s on the floor as he generally makes fantastic decisions with it.
And as fun as these two star bigs’ offensive games are, what makes this matchup particularly intoxicating is that they’ll be trying to stop one another at the same time and will likely find a great deal of success there as they’re both outstanding all-around defenders who made the NBA’s all-defensive teams.
Both men are great shot-blockers, so there will be nothing easy inside, and they both have freakishly quick feet for their size, meaning they can very easily defend in space as well. So no one player has a clear-cut advantage over the other in any one-on-one situation.
This is going to be so much fun to watch.
“I know a lot of people are looking forward to that matchup. It's going to put, I think, whoever wins that matchup, their team will probably have a better chance of winning the series,” said Davis of his forthcoming matchup with Adebayo. “But he's developed so much since coming out of college and even last year, he was able to do so much for that team. That team leans on him a lot.”
Role players will be big in this series
For obvious reasons much of the limelight is being focused on the stars of the series, but the role players of each side figure to be very important as well.
For the Lakers, with the team being so top-heavy with James and Davis, all they need is just one or two other guys to have a moderately big night and that will be enough. The problem is that player doesn’t consistently present itself game-to-game.
Los Angeles has some veteran former stars in Rajon Rondo and Dwight Howard who could be that guy, and even some shooters like Danny Green and Kuzma, but the player most likely to be that “other” guy is Alex Caruso. He has become a reliable backup point guard and can make an impact in the game without ever needing to take a shot because he’s proven to be a stalwart defender for the Lakers.
L.A. doesn’t really have problems scoring the basketball with James and Davis playing the way they are, so the most important thing for the team is then to stop its opponents and Caruso has the defensive chops to really aid in that area.
On the flip side, as mentioned before, the Heat have six players averaging double digits this post-season and they’re going to need it all from them lest they get bombed out like everyone says they will.
In particular, players like three-and-D specialist Jae Crowder and sharpshooting duo Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson need to knock down their open shots when they present themselves. Additionally, a player like Canadian Kelly Olynyk could be an interesting option for Heat coach Erik Spoelstra when Davis is out of the game and one of Howard or JaVale McGee is in to take his place as Olynyk’s three-point shooting and all-around ball skills out on the perimeter could be a significant advantage for Miami in those particular matchups.
Either way, while it’s true that stars win games, role players are needed to help stars get to that position to win the game, and both clubs will need these lesser-known-but-valuable pieces to step up here on the grandest stage if they are to find success.
How Los Angeles will win
This is a very simple question to answer: The Lakers will win simply by being the Lakers.
Simply put, as previously stated, the Lakers have the two best players in the series and if they play as we all know they can play, this top-level talent will prove to be too much for Miami overcome.
All the Lakers need is to keep playing the strong defence they’ve played all season long, have guys hit a few open triples a few times a game and James and Davis will do the rest.
It’s boring and uncreative to say the Lakers will win because they have two top-five players in the world on their roster, but the Lakers will win because they have two top-five players in the world on their roster.
How Miami will win
For the Heat to win, things need to be a whole lot more interesting.
Against Boston, the Heat didn’t have the best player in the series on their team – that was Jayson Tatum – but they did appear to have more poise than the young Celtics stars and took advantage of that.
Facing a veteran Lakers team, the Heat probably won’t have that same kind of luxury. Instead, they will need to bank on some of their young studs to rise to the occasion and fortunately for them, history suggests they have guys who can do that.
The key to Miami’s victory will, of course, start with Butler, Adebayo and Dragic playing the way they normally do (and preferably hitting another gear as well), and for the shooter pair of Herro and Robinson to catch fire in the series.
In the Eastern Conference Final, the rookie Herro had a 37-point explosion in Game 4 and showed the kind of swagger and shot-making usually only reserved for the likes of superstars like Stephen Curry or Damian Lillard.
He could be an X-factor that the Lakers simply can’t entirely plan for because the main three-point threat they need to draw attention to is Robinson, who is shooting 40 per cent from three-point range this post-season on over seven attempts per game.
If Herro and Robinson can find their strokes in the Finals, it’ll put so much pressure on the Lakers’ defence that suddenly so much more will open up and will, at the very least, give Miami a shot to be in games late when Butler shines brightest.
Series prediction
Lakers in five.
Not exactly creative, but the most logical choice. All season long, the dynamic duo of James and Davis has been an unsolvable problem for every team in the league and unless both of these superstars completely disappear, not even vaunted “Heat Culture” will be able to crack this particular puzzle.
At the end of the day, basketball is a relatively simple game. Talent wins out.