After a wicked first-round duel that saw Jamal Murray and Donovan Mitchell trading historic 50-point games like desserts in a high school cafeteria, the Western Conference semifinals are finally carved in stone with the Denver Nuggets set to take on the mercurial Los Angeles Clippers.
The Nuggets will certainly be riding high coming into this series, with Murray shooting flames from his fingertips and more than living up to the five-year, $170-million max contract he signed last off-season. Denver will hope he can continue his ineffable play (and that his bruised thigh doesn’t slow him too much), particularly in the pick-and-roll (he scored a ridiculous 1.24 points per possession as the handler in those scenarios in Round 1, putting him in the 90th percentile), against a Clippers squad that will be sending some of the league’s top perimeter defenders his way.
If Denver wants to emerge victorious from this series, their starting unit in particular will have to improve—over their first seven post-season games, that group (Murray-Monte Morris–Jerami Grant–Paul Millsap–Nikola Jokic) has posted an abysmal minus-17.6 net rating in 64 minutes together. That’s the third-worst mark amongst lineups that have played at least 40 minutes these playoffs.
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Those numbers should be bolstered by the return of Gary Harris, however (in two games, the most-used lineup that included Harris was Denver’s best by far, posting a plus-54.8 net rating), and head coach Michael Malone would be foolish not to stick one of his few reliable defenders into that starting group. Los Angeles, meanwhile, boasts a starting unit fresh off of eviscerating the Dallas Mavericks in the first round. That group has a net rating of 21.7, second-best amongst all lineups that have played at least 40 minutes.
Having won their initial series in a slightly surprising six games, the Clippers’ confidence is likely soaring as it pertains to this matchup, having just managed to oust one of the league’s best all-around players in Luka Doncic. The Murray assignment, while daunting in its own way, isn’t nearly as nerve-wracking.
With Kawhi Leonard firing on all cylinders, Paul George having broken out of his early slump, Montrezl Harrell slowly rounding into form, and Patrick Beverley potentially able to return this series, the Clippers are finally starting to look the part of the monstrous contender they were pegged to be pre-season.
Regular-season review: Clippers won series 2–1
It’s difficult to take away too much from the Clippers’ regular season in any capacity—they were injured so often and had Leonard on the load management program that he has become synonymous with such that any significant span of data is understandably noisy.
The single victory the Nuggets pulled out against Los Angeles saw George sitting on the sidelines, and the most recent Clippers victory, a 124–111 drubbing during the seeding games, was accomplished without the likes of key cogs Beverley and Harrell.
Still, it’s worth noting that Leonard did actually play in all three of these contests, and had little difficulty putting his stamp on things, averaging 24 points, four rebounds, four assists, and 2.3 steals on 50.9 per cent shooting.
Key matchup: Jamal Murray vs. Kawhi Leonard
While the Utah Jazz weren’t sending porous defenders Murray’s way, none of them are comparable to a locked-in Leonard.
Despite not always having Leonard start on an opponent’s most imposing offensive threat and instead opting to save him as a potential series-shifting adjustment, it would seem likely that the Clippers go to sticking him on Murray from the jump, as he already drew the bulk of that assignment in the regular season, matching up with Murray for 32.6 partial possessions over three games.
Murray has largely done his damage in the pick-and-roll, where he’s either pulled-up for triples (he’s shooting a ludicrous 57.1 per cent on those looks) off of screens, dove in towards the rim given the space for at-the-bucket finishes or floaters, or kicked the ball (something he’s improving at) to a popping big or another open teammate after penetrating.
The Nuggets will require Murray to continue playing at a high level for them to have a serious chance, but his present shooting clip is probably unsustainable in general and with the addition of Leonard entering his space, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him fall off substantially.
It may be wise for Denver, then, to consider mixing some actions in which Murray is an on-ball screener into its offence. That could make use of Murray as a distraction and perhaps provide alternate offensive avenues.
Honourable mention: Nikola Jokic vs. Ivica Zubac
A massive part of this series will be just how quickly Jokic can assert himself against Zubac down low. While Zubac has been pleasantly surprising as a solid defender and legitimate roll threat this post-season, he’s no Rudy Gobert, and Jokic will find a lot of relief in that after struggling to establish himself as the Nuggets’ offensive hub in Round 1.
True, Jokic averaged 26.3 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 5.4 assists on 51.5 per cent shooting against the Jazz, but faced with the length and athleticism of Gobert he was unable to get anything going in the post and therefore also unable to draw double teams to vaporize with his premier passing. Instead, he resorted to acting largely as a pick-and-pop big, a role in which he was evidently still able to do a lot of damage.
Against the Clippers, such roadblocks should prove to be largely absent, allowing Jokic to return to a level of comfort he hasn’t had yet in these playoffs.
X-factors
Clippers: Paul George
Credit to George: He came out and spoke publicly about dealing with anxiety and depression while attempting to live life within the Orlando bubble, a heavily contributing factor to his poor early play that saw him shoot just 21.2 per cent through Games 2, 3, and 4 against Dallas.
Impressively, he managed to rebound in Game 5 in a big way, crushing the Mavericks to the tune of 35 points on a red-hot 66.7 per cent shooting.
For the Clippers to truly be the dominant force they know they can be on a consistent basis, they’ll need George to play his best at both ends and provide the type of secondary options that Leonard requires from a No. 2.
Nuggets: Michael Porter Jr.
Denver is going to need offence coming from somewhere other than just Murray and Jokic, and upstart forward Michael Porter Jr. is the team’s best bet to bring consistent scoring if he can quit fouling so often and muster passable defence.
With Leonard primed to spend most of his time on Murray and Jokic likely to be seeing doubles as soon as he proves he can dominate Zubac one-on-one in the post, Porter could act as the team’s release valve in the half-court, an excellent three-point shooter (42.2 per cent this season) and finisher at the rim (72.1 per cent within 0–3 feet).
Jokic may just be the best passing big man in NBA history, and once he recognizes multiple bodies coming his way, he will immediately fling the ball either to an already-open teammate, or to the next-closest option that begets perimeter movement until an open shot presents itself. If Porter can capitalize on the results of those possessions by nailing good looks and attacking late closeouts, the Nuggets will be significantly more dangerous.
Prediction
Clippers in six.
The Nuggets aren’t going to be grinding games out—if they want to take this series, they’ll have to score, and so, at the very least, one of Jokic or Murray will have to be spectacular and exploit every single opening they’re given. That’s a tall (though possible) task against the defensive monolith that is Los Angeles, and it’s likely that Denver’s own defensive woes do them in going the other way.
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