Every NBA season presents new opportunities — but there are just a few budding talents uniquely positioned to leap from role player to star in 2026-27.
Many factors contribute to a breakout season: the continued development of undeniably promising prospects, shifts in context and personnel creating openings for players to shine and sometimes less obvious latent skill development (and so much more).
It makes predicting the players who will make such leaps a nebulous task. Last season, I correctly predicted statistical jumps from Canadians Andrew Nembhard and Shaedon Sharpe, among others, but it was another under-the-radar Canuck, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who more than doubled his scoring output and won the Most Improved Player award.
It's time to look at five players who could break out this season:
Harper's case for ascension to stardom isn't due to increased opportunity. He is now projected to start for the NBA finalist San Antonio Spurs, but the sophomore is still surrounded by a stable of more established, elite guards.
Instead, it's about his undeniable skill set and the uniquely beneficial context surrounding it.
The 20-year-old possesses maybe the most important skill for a lead guard — he's exceptional at attacking off the bounce, navigating tight spaces within the defence with his dribble and threatening the rim with myriad effective finishes. Harper's 63 per cent shooting at the rim last season was above league average for guards, a phenomenal accomplishment for a 19-year-old rookie.
To stop Harper from streaking to the rim and scoring, defences must make big rotations and often get scrambled in the process. That already poses a problem before introducing Victor Wembanyama into the equation.
The seven-foot-four anomaly also draws gobs of attention, puts more pressure on the back end of a defence than maybe any other player in the league, and forces opposing teams to use irregular help principles to contain him.
Wembanyama has an otherworldly presence, and Harper's handles are good enough to steer The Alien's spaceship. Together, they'll have defences in zero gravity trying to defend them.
And that goes without mentioning De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle. The latter took a big leap last year and is also a candidate to break out further this season.
But Harper is the pick here. In an NBA Finals environment that takes away every aspect of a player's offensive game possible, his driving withstood the ultimate test. Last year's second-overall pick averaged more points (18) on greater two-point efficiency (60.9 per cent) in the post-season, a true testament to the resiliency of his game.
Kessler has been heralded as the NBA's next great centre since flashing greatness during his first season in 2022-23 and finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting.
However, the daunting seven-foot-two big man has been continually hampered by injury. Now, he has a fresh start, both with his health and situation.
The 25-year-old played only five games last season before undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum that ended his campaign. Kessler revealed in his first media availability after the surgery that he'd had a labrum tear in his left shoulder since his playing days at Auburn University. Then Kessler was shipped from the Utah Jazz to the Los Angeles Lakers in the off-season in a sign-and-trade deal for two first-round picks and two pick swaps.
Kessler playing through the injury only makes the 11.1 points, 12.2 rebounds and 2.4 blocks he averaged over his last partial season (58 games) in 2024-25 that much more impressive. In fact, since Kessler debuted, only Wembanyama has averaged more blocks per game (3.5) than his career average of 2.4.
Now, Kessler's 68.1 career field goal percentage will likely get a boost — new teammate Luka Doncic is among the NBA's best at delivering layups and dunks to his big man on a silver platter. Despite his other struggles last year, Deandre Ayton shot a career-high 67.1 per cent in his lone season alongside Doncic, well above his previous career mark of 59 per cent. Pairing a more efficient rim finisher alongside Luka Magic should be deadly.
Wallace helped anchor the Oklahoma City Thunder's league-best defence last season, leading the NBA in steals, finishing seventh in Defensive Player of the Year voting and making second-team All-Defence.
Now, the 22-year-old projects to permanently take over Montreal native Lu Dort's spot in the starting lineup.
He already started plenty last year, but it was mostly in the absence of Jalen Williams or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — Wallace started just twice in the playoffs. Now, with the departure of Dort and Aaron Wiggins to the Atlanta Hawks, there will be a surplus of minutes available regardless of health. Wallace grabbing a league-high 150 steals in under 27 minutes per game was already preposterous.
His offensive contributions should grow, too. Wallace averaged just 8.6 points and 2.6 assists last season. But over a nine-game stretch without Gilgeous-Alexander in February, those numbers shot up to 15 points and five assists as he shouldered a greater offensive load and displayed an ability to create offence for himself and teammates from a standstill. The stretch included three straight 20-point games, including a season-high 27 against the Toronto Raptors.
Wallace shouldn't have to step into that same role if all breaks right for Oklahoma City, health-wise. But the volume of second-side actions that run through him should increase. Moreover, he shot just 35.1 per cent from three-point range last year, but is a career 37.4 per cent shooter on 730 attempts. So his efficiency should also improve.
The ultra-talented Ajay Mitchell is another candidate for the Thunder. But Oklahoma City just reportedly signed Wallace to a five-year, $139-million rookie-scale extension on Sunday. That's breakout money.
There is a health-dependent case to be made for putting Jerome's teammate and Toronto-born big man Zach Edey on this list, but it felt wrong to include two centres who combined for 16 games last season. So, we have Edey's pick-and-roll partner instead.
To be fair, Jerome's health wasn't much better. He played just 15 games last season due to various lower-leg injuries. But the 29-year-old guard was primed for a breakout had he stayed healthy.
During his last full season in 2024-25, Jerome finished third in Sixth Man of the Year voting for the 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers. Out of the NBA's 50 highest-volume pick-and-roll ball handlers that season (minimum 250 possessions), only 13 averaged over one point per possession as a scorer. Jerome made that list, alongside 11 other former all-stars (Gilgeous-Alexander, Fox, Tyrese Haliburton, Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving, DeMar DeRozan, Jalen Brunson, Darius Garland, Anthony Edwards, Donovan Mitchell, Jamal Murray and Austin Reaves, who exploded last season with the Lakers to average 23.3 points).
If that isn't enough, Jerome's 41.9 per cent shooting on pull-up triples since the start of the 2024-25 season is second in the NBA (minimum 200 attempts). He averaged 19.7 points and 5.7 assists over 15 games last season. Those numbers could be maintained as he's handed the keys to the Grizzlies' offence.
Collin Murray-Boyles, F/C, Toronto Raptors
Most of the players on this list fit into a very well-defined archetype. Murray-Boyles is far more peculiar, and that's where his strengths lie.
The six-foot-seven, 245-pound multi-positional menace spent extensive time playing centre for the Raptors last season while Jakob Poeltl dealt with a troublesome back. Size-wise, it didn't seem to make a ton of sense, but sense was quickly thrown out the window when the Raptors rebounded better, and opposing teams shot both less and worse at the rim with Murray-Boyles on the floor as a centre (per Cleaning the Glass).
Similar to the "Round Mound of Rebound" Charles Barkley, who stood only six-foot-six, Murray-Boyles quickly proved adept at leveraging his uncanny strength to outfox opponents.
In the ever-revealing playoffs, he shot 74 per cent at the rim — a 76th percentile mark among centres — while contesting with former all-stars and Defensive Player of the Year winner/vote-getter Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.
CMB went from an 8.5-point, five-rebound, 1.9-assist, 1.8-stock (steal plus block) line in the regular season to averaging 14.4 points, 6.4 boards, 2.4 assists and 2.4 stocks over the seven-game first-round series. His 22 points in Game 3 were a Raptors rookie record.
The 21-year-old also terrorized superstar guards James Harden and Donovan Mitchell on the perimeter. His mobility and seemingly preternatural ground coverage for his size helped the Raptors enact unique defensive coverages that, in turn, helped extend what was considered to be a mismatched series.
Keeping Toronto's high-powered starting lineup in mind, it seems unlikely Murray-Boyles gets enough usage off the bench to have a huge scoring jump. But his elite defence should continue to garner recognition, and the nascent forward could punch up at Sixth Man of the Year votes if he keeps dunking all over people.
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