Five trends that will define the second half of the Raptors' season

TORONTO — The Toronto Raptors rebuilding season is only half-finished. Which isn’t to say their rebuild is half-finished. It’s barely started.

But when they play the Milwaukee Bucks Friday night, it will be the 42nd game of the season, and with 41 played, they are halfway home to a second-consecutive season that seems destined — and intended — to end up well outside the play-in tournament, giving them a good chance to be in the upper end of the draft lottery.

The good news is, no matter what happens, the Raptors will be able to keep their pick, unlike last season, when they had to fork over the eighth-overall pick to the San Antonio Spurs. Providing they maintain their current trajectory (which is hardly guaranteed, given the Raptors seem to be mostly over their injury bug and have the easiest remaining strength of schedule in the league), the Raptors will have a reasonable chance (12.5 per cent) to pick first overall, based on how things stand now, and a 48.1 per cent chance to pick in the top four.

If Toronto stumbles into Duke star Cooper Flagg, the consensus choice to be the first pick, it seems highly likely that the travails of this season will be well worth it.

After that? The timeline for a rebuild stretches out as long as it takes before a franchise gets the right player — or players — to turn things around. In the meantime, you can only do the best you can with what you have.

In that spirit, here are five encouraging first-half trends I’m interested in seeing develop over the final 41 games of the season:

1. Scottie Barnes’ growth rate

Like seemingly every Raptor, Barnes has had some bad injury luck to contend with. In his case, a broken orbital bone — thanks to an inadvertent Nikola Jokic forearm shiver — a sprained ankle and some other ailments that haven’t cost him games but to varying degrees limited his effectiveness at times.

But over the past 12 games, Barnes has enjoyed his longest stretch of uninterrupted play this season and it has corresponded with some of his best basketball, as he’s averaging 21.5 points on 50.5 per cent shooting with 2.7 ‘stocks’ (combination of steals and blocks). The numbers are a bump on his All-Star season from a year ago. But they are only part of the story.

Barnes has been more comfortable and accountable as a team spokesman, which is not the first job of a franchise player, but certainly one of them. He’s also showing signs of developing a go-to move by dribbling into post-ups and finishing with a baseline fadeaway over his right shoulder, and a counter into the lane when needed. It’s not the most technical move out there, but with Barnes's size and touch, it’s a tough one to guard. Whether Barnes ever develops into a true, late-game first option on a playoff team is still to be determined, but he gets a little closer by having a comfort blanket he can turn to down the stretch.

Any improvement in his three-point shooting (28.3 per cent on 5.2 attempts per game is not getting it done) would also be welcome.

2. RJ Barrett’s playmaking

When Mississauga, Ont.'s finest was acquired from the Knicks in the OG Anunoby trade this time last season, there were all kinds of questions about his game, even if he’d been a productive player through five NBA seasons. Could he shoot well enough? Could he play a role other than as a volume scorer? How would he fit with others, and what about his defence?

To his credit, Barrett has answered most of them as well as anyone could have reasonably expected. As a baseline, he’s having the best season he’s ever had, full-stop, averaging career-bests in points (22.9), rebounds (6.7) and assists (5.9), with an effective field-goal percentage of 51.2, which is the second-best of his career, his best (54.5 per cent) coming last season.

As always with Barrett, you’d love to see the efficiency be a little higher. Of the 28 players in the league who average 17 shots per game or more, Barrett is 24th in effective field-goal percentage. He showed last season he’s capable (he had a glittering eFG of 60.1 per cent in 32 games with the Raptors) and now that the team is healthy, he can afford to be a bit more choosy offensively. Going 10-of-13 from two against the Celtics Wednesday with eight assists was a perfect example.

One question Barrett has answered definitively is that he is both a willing and able passer. He’s doubled his career-best mark with the Knicks, and even with some heavy turnover games when the Raptors' offence was thrust into his hands, he’s still in the 2:1 assist-to-turnover-ratio ballpark. Seeing him continue making good reads in transition and out-of-his-paint touches while trimming back on the mistakes will be something to watch for in the second half.

3. Jamal Shead, the new Fred

It’s a heck of a burden to place on a rookie point guard, comparing him to a franchise icon and former All-Star, but you can make the case that Shead is on track to have a better rookie season than Fred VanVleet did in 2016-17.

The comparison isn’t entirely fair: VanVleet was joining a team that had won 56 games and advanced to the conference finals the year before he arrived as an undrafted free agent, whereas the rebuilding Raptors have already moved Shead ahead of fourth-year guard Davion Mitchell in the rotation to hasten his development.

But Shead has performed well in his opportunity. In particular, adjusting the mechanics of his release on his three-point shot has paid dividends. Shead shot just 29 per cent from three in four years at the University of Houston. In his past 14 games with the Raptors, Shead is shooting 45.9 per cent from three on 2.6 attempts per game and contributing 7.1 points, 4.7 assists and a steal in 19 minutes a game.

It’s better production than VanVleet ever managed as a rookie, and it compares favourably with VanVleet’s breakout second season, when he averaged 8.6 points and shot 41.4 per cent from three with 3.2 assists and one steal in 20 minutes.

4. Chris Boucher’s trade value

A year ago, Boucher seemed lost. He was mostly out of head coach Darko Rajakovic’s rotation, and his body language often reflected his frustration. As well, with one year left on his contract, there didn’t seem to be much of a trade market for him. He seemed stuck.

But Boucher bought in over the summer, spent a lot of time talking with Rajakovic about his role and the developments he needed to make. He was an enthusiastic participant in the Raptors' off-season workouts and has been an ideal vet as the season has ground on: willing and able when called upon, but not a distraction when he hasn’t.

And Boucher, at age 32 and in his eighth NBA season, has gotten better. He’s handling the ball more confidently than he ever has, he’s making passing reads off the dribble and he’s moving the ball for better shots, rather than hoisting it on every touch. The result has been his best season since his breakout year in Tampa in 2020-21.

Boucher is averaging 10.5 points and 4.5 rebounds in just 18 minutes a game, while shooting 49 per cent from the floor and 36.2 per cent from three. As an expiring contract who — as we’ve seen of late — is still capable of changing the trajectory of a game, he might be one Raptor to generate some trade interest as the deadline approaches.

5. Darko Rajakovic’s leadership

When you lose as many relatively close games as the Raptors have this season, it’s easy to nitpick and identify a late-game decision he could have or should have made differently. And to his credit, Rajakovic has owned those moments, rather than be defensive about them.

But in the bigger picture, his ability to create and maintain a largely positive and hard-working culture as the losses pile up reflects well on him and his staff. There has been a consistent message and approach, there has been no finger-pointing or public demonstrations of the frustration that is inevitable in a situation where you’re losing four out of every five games you play. There have been positive individual development stories and — when the stars have aligned, and health has allowed — some signs of good basketball.

Coaching a team built to lose is a hard and mostly thankless job in professional sports, and Rajakovic deserves credit for never wavering and keeping his eye on the future even at the expense, sometimes, of the present.