It’s Day Two of 30 Teams, 30 Picks. Today: an extremely top-heavy division featuring several fascinating rookies, the best player in the world, and a team everyone seems to have forgotten about.
Eastern Conference – Central Division
Look, I know they got thrashed in the playoffs, but the Chicago Bulls have been completely lost in the shuffle this offseason, as we’ve all seemingly forgotten how good they were before the injury bug hit.
They’ll likely be looking up at Milwaukee at the end of the year. I wouldn’t be surprised if the entire league is looking up at the Bucks. Giannis Antetokounmpo is that good. As a Warriors fan, I was terrified at the prospect of the Bucks winning Game 7 against Boston, ending up in the finals and getting Khris Middleton back just in time to annihilate my boys.
And then you’ve got an enigma in Cleveland, an early contender for Most Sneakily Fun League Pass Team in Detroit, and a team that I wouldn’t raise the blinds to watch if they were playing in my backyard in the Indiana Pacers.
It’s time for the Central Division.
Milwaukee Bucks – o/u 51.5 wins
Key additions – Joe Ingles (F), Serge Ibaka (C), MarJon Beauchamp (Wing)
Key losses – Nothing important. Bryn Forbes left, so there is that.
Make no mistake, Milwaukee is a serious contender to win the East each and every year Giannis Antetokounmpo suits up for them. They’ve got the best player in the league, arguably the best point-of-attack defender in the league in Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton is the perfect second banana, and they’ve slowly become one of the league’s top teams in terms of continuity.
Adding Ingles and Ibaka likely won’t move the needle much, but the Bucks looked like the best team in the playoffs before Khris Middleton went down. They’ve also made the transition from young team to veteran team that’s been there before. The only thing that scares me is coach Mike Budenholzer has historically limited Giannis’ minutes during the regular season, but it’s still an easy OVER 51.5 wins pick for me. This team could easily win 60-65 games.
Chicago Bulls – o/u 42.5 wins
Key additions – Andre Drummond (C), Goran Dragic (PG)
Key losses – None yet, though Tristan Thompson remains unsigned. Not that he’s particularly impactful.
I’m of two minds here. On one hand, Chicago was on a 53-win pace when Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso got hurt. Patrick Williams only played 17 games in the 2021-22 season. When this team was whole, they were a top three team in the East last year.
On the other hand, you’re probably not going to get former Raptor DeMar Derozan’s greatest season two years in a row. The Bulls were a fun surprise last year, but they were essentially three Derozan jumpers away from finishing with 43 wins.
This must be why they call it gambling. I’ll take the OVER 42.5 wins, betting that a decline from DeMar is offset by the return of all their top defenders.
Cleveland Cavaliers – o/u 42.5 wins
Key additions – Robin Lopez (C)
Key losses – Moses Brown (C), possibly the still unsigned Collin Sexton (G)
This team screams “REGRESSION” at me. Evan Mobley is the absolute truth, and Darius Garland’s ascendancy shouldn’t be understated or underrated. But to a certain extent, I think Cleveland’s early success was built on a gimmick.
By essentially starting three centres, the Cavs presented a defence that surprised the entire league. As the season wore on, teams were able to figure out how to crack it. With a full offseason of film room time, the league’s other 29 teams will most likely find a way to play the Cavs out of that Markkanen-Mobley-Allen lineup.
The best version of this team is probably Garland and Mobley with three shooters around them, which makes Collin Sexton’s restricted free agency such a fascinating shoe still waiting to drop. Either way, that Garland/Mobley tandem is probably a year or two away from being able to carry winning basketball on their own. Give me the UNDER 42.5 wins.
Indiana Pacers – o/u 25.5 wins
Key additions – Daniel Theis (C), Bennedict Mathurin (Wing), Aaron Nesmith (Wing)
Key losses – Malcolm Brogdon (G), T.J. Warren (F)
Man, this team is going to suck. There is almost nothing exciting about the Indiana Pacers, besides the possibility that they finally trade Myles “Perpetually On The Trading Block” Turner and go all out to tank for French phenom Victor Wembanyama.
I like Tyrese Haliburton, but he and Buddy Hield in the backcourt is such a bad defensive combo Turner will need to block about nine shots per game for the Pacers to be competitive.
A smart front office finds a way to offload both Hield and Turner for picks, and Indy has always been a smart organization. I think the Pacers are going to bottom out, so I like the UNDER 25.5 wins.
Detroit Pistons – o/u 26.5 wins
Key additions – Jalen Duren (C), Jaden Ivey (G), whoever they decide to retain from the Knicks trade that netted them Nerlens Noel (C), Kemba Walker (PG), and Alec Burks (G)
Key losses – Jerami Grant (PF)
Now, this is going to be a fun team to watch. Not good, but fun. Cade Cunningham’s rookie campaign was very good, and a typical sophomore jump for him could make the Pistons extremely frisky.
Add in what was one of my favourite draft days, and I wouldn’t be particularly surprised to see Detroit win 30 games. Jalen Duren is a high-upside guy, Jaden Ivey looks NBA-ready, Saddiq Bey showed flashes of good-not-great basketball last year, and there’s always the possibility that the real problem with Marvin Bagley III was that he was on the Sacramento Kings.
The Pistons are my pre-season leader to be this year’s Orlando Magic: The team that isn’t good but is extremely fun to watch. Since I know I’m going to be watching this team closely, why not invest in them a bit? Give me the OVER 26.5 wins. That’s why I love these bets. Invest emotionally in teams you’d otherwise not care about.
As always, play safe, and don’t chase.
