Today, the NBA Offseason begins in earnest. While teams have obviously been back-channeling since the moment Nikola Jokic lifted – or left behind – the NBA Finals MVP trophy, today begins the period in which they can officially begin negotiating with free agents. And July 1st is when the signings can start.
For the NBA bettor, this is a chance to truly flex their knowledge, intuition, and ability to pick a good bet out of a lineup of donation bait.
So let’s run down some of the marquee names that could move, and how we can maybe make some money betting on where they’ll land. Maybe. Probably not. But maybe.
This is not a deep free agency class, but there is some elite talent at the top, and most of them are guards. Given that, it almost feels like there could be no movement until one domino falls, and then the rest will quickly find a home. The funny thing is, that the first domino isn’t even technically a free agent.
• Los Angeles Clippers (+350)
• Los Angeles Lakers (+450)
• Houston Rockets (+600)
• New York Knicks (+650)
When former MVP James Harden opted into the final year of his contract with Philadelphia, the immediate implication was he did so with the expectation he’d be traded. After a season’s worth of rumours that he wanted to return to Houston, where he played the best ball of his career, the destinations NBA insiders reported were New York and the LA Clippers. Of course, the Lakers are always a possibility when a superstar becomes available. Here’s why only one of these teams seems reasonable (outside of three-team trades).
Let’s never forget, Daryl Morey sat on Ben Simmons, the most distressed asset to hit the trade market in years, for nearly a year before ultimately trading him to the Brooklyn Nets for Harden. If this is a staring contest, Morey seems unlikely to blink unless he’s getting another star back in return for Harden. That fact, I believe, eliminates all but one squad: New York.
The Clippers aren’t going to get Harden for Terrance Mann, Norm Powell, and some draft picks. Morey will want either Kawhi Leonard or Paul George. I doubt the Clips go for that. The Lakers legitimately don’t have any assets that could help Philly outside of Lebron James and Anthony Davis, unless Morey forgets all the math he knows and becomes yet another GM fooled by D’Angelo Russell.
And Houston? Well Houston doesn’t have anyone great on their roster, so unless Philadelphia is rebooting The Process, what’s the point? That leaves us with the Knicks.
Biting on a 34-year-old Harden is exactly the kind of panic move the Knicks have made time and time again. He’d pair nicely with Embiid, he’s proven he can share the rock with another good ballhandler in Tyrese Maxey, and he’s a proven playoff performer. On a team whose recent history is one of playoff failure, that means something. I like the New York Knicks (+650) to land the beard.
• Dallas Mavericks (+150)
• Los Angeles Lakers (+175)
• Houston Rockets (+950)
• The Field (+750)
Remember when I said the Lakers were a contender to land any given marquee free agent at any given time? Kyrie Irving can choose his next destination, and a reunion with Lebron James on a team in desperate need of a functional point guard certainly seems appealing. I think that’s an oversimplification, and it’s likely the Lakers’ high odds here are a reflection of public money more than a reflection of reality.
Los Angeles is limited in how much they can spend to bring anyone in, especially if they follow through on their stated intent to resign ascendant guard Austin Reaves. Plus, reports are the market for Kyrie is not as robust as he and his team expected it to be. Gun to my head, I think Kyrie stays put and signs with Dallas (+150), but allow me to make the argument for the field (+750).
It's simple: The field includes Philadelphia. A sign-and-trade that sends Kyrie to the Sixers and Harden to Dallas makes sense for both sides. Dallas gets out of the Kyrie Circus, and Philly gets a playmaker far more reliable than Harden at this stage of their respective careers.
· Golden State Warriors (+125)
· Los Angeles Lakers (+250)
· Detroit Pistons (+500)
· The Field (+750)
He’s a polarizing player, but Draymond Green is immensely respected around the league. There are not many defensive stalwarts, playmakers, or leaders as proven or decorated as the kid from Saginaw. And none who are available this off season.
But I don’t think he’s going anywhere.
Both Draymond’s camp and the Golden State front office have been quick to confirm they want to run it back with the Warriors’ Golden Trio. The Bay Area hasn’t just been Green’s home for his entire career, but staying put means playing in a system built around him, Stephen Curry, and Klay Thompson. And a system built by them.
As vocal as Green has been about his desire to play with Lebron James, and as storybook an ending as it would be for him to finish his career back in Michigan, neither of those seem likely. I like Dray to stay with the Golden State Warriors (+125) and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sign a deal at 12:01 a.m. on July 1st.
If you want longer odds, take the field (+750). There has been a lot of smoke coming out of Sacramento, a team with cap space and an owner who is obsessed with out-maneuvering the Warriors, a team he used to partially own. Green fits well with the Kings, and I could see them making him a Godfather offer. Who wouldn’t want to add the best defender of his generation to a team that broke offensive records last season?
Those are the big names I could see moving, but frankly, outside of Harden I don’t expect much. I picked Philadelphia as the most likely non-Toronto destination for Fred VanVleet because of his friendship with new Sixers coach Nick Nurse, and I like that bet even more if Harden is traded without a starting-calibre point guard coming back in return. The books seem to be thinking the same thing, as what was once a +900 bet is now +700-800.
And, since it appears to be illegal to talk about player movement without mentioning Damian Lillard: I don’t think Dame is going anywhere. I’m not spending any more time on it than that. It’s been discussed to death.
As always, play safe and don’t chase.
