OK, so maybe that Joel Embiid thumb thing is a real thing? The Raptors had a bounce-back game, Embiid was somewhat stymied, and I completely whiffed on my diagnosis for Game 4. But I know my sports cliches, so it’s on to Game 5.
Extending their season with a 110-102 Game 4 win means a few things for the Raptors. First, it buys a little bit more time for Scottie Barnes’ ankle to heal. Second, it means Embiid is spending more time using that injured right thumb.
If I’m a Philly fan, I’m starting to get a little bit nervous. This Raptors squad is feisty and annoying, and you can’t let your guard down against them.
In Brooklyn, Jayson Tatum can do some serious legacy building in a close-out game against the Nets. The Celtics star is having himself one of those torch-passing series. Or torch-grabbing. If Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant don’t combine for 60+ points, I don’t like Brooklyn’s chances.
In the Jazz-Mavericks series, up is down and East is West. The Jazz got embarrassed by Jalen Brunson for two games and then win one when Luka Doncic comes back?!
This first round has had it all. Except I haven’t hit a big parlay since Game 1 of Raptors-Sixers. So let’s get it.
Overall record against the spread: 8-5
Toronto Raptors (+7.5, +265) at Philadelphia 76ers (-7.5, -330) — 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Sportsnet
The good news for the Raptors: They won a game and Pascal Siakam looked like himself for once. The bad news: Fred VanVleet injured his hip during their Game 4 win and is out of the lineup Monday night. It'll be tough for the Raptors to prolong the series another game without their captain, point guard, and talisman.
There’s the saying in hoops: Role players play better at home. If these two teams play the exact same games they did in Game 3 but in Philly instead of Toronto, the swing in role-player production will likely be enough to swing the game. Factor in Embiid probably progressing back to the mean here, I think Philly covers the 7.5-point spread.
And because the Raptors are focusing so heavily on Embiid, I’m going to keep hammering Tobias Harris OVER 15.5 points for as long as the books leave his number that low. I also like Tyrese Maxey OVER 18.5 with FVV banged up.
Boston Celtics (+1.0, +100) at Brooklyn Nets (-1, -120) — 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT
According to NBA.com’s Advanced Stats Player Tracking, Durant is shooting 2-15 with 10 points and 10 turnovers when Tatum has guarded him so far this series. That’s it, that’s the series in a single stat. The Nets are done, barring the never-before-seen 3-0 comeback.
I’ve got to be honest, as good as my hometown Golden State Warriors are looking, Boston is not a team I want to see coming out of the East. I’m eying their NBA Championship odds right now and they’re +460 to win it all at some books. That’s decent value for a futures pick at this point.
But it’s natural to get up 3-0 and take your foot off the gas a tiny bit. As over-and-done as the series is, all three games have been winnable for the Nets. I think they finally get one here as the Celtics set up the Gentleman’s Sweep.
Brooklyn (-1) is the pick for no reason other than I can’t imagine Durant and Irving going down without getting a single game.
I’m also hitting Jaylen Brown UNDER 24.5 points. That’s above his season average, and above where he’s finished in each of the previous three games.
Utah Jazz (+3, +135) at Dallas Mavericks (-3, -155) — 9:30 p.m. ET / 6:30 p.m. PT
Doncic's back and I finally get to pick this series the way I wanted to. I put a little money on Dallas before the playoffs started at +250 to win this series, and despite the 100-99 loss in Game 3 in Utah, I’m feeling pretty great about that.
Doncic was his usual self, with 30/10/4 on 52/40/100 shooting splits. Those four assists leave room for improvement over a game the Mavericks probably should have won.
Dallas was an elite home favourite this season, going 17-11-2 against the spread in that scenario. Utah covered as road dogs only twice all season. The Mavs have their star back, a newly minted second banana in Brunson, and even though they’re coming off a loss, it still feels like they have the momentum.
I’m going Mavs (-3). Just for old time’s sake, I’ll throw in the UNDER on the game. Doncic’s return really slowed the pace of the game, and the total score was only 199 in Game 4 despite 65 free throws. I wouldn’t be too surprised if the pivotal Game 5 was even lower.
The Sicko Same Game Parlay for Monday Night pays off at +750
• Philadelphia -5.5 alternative point spread
• Philadelphia-Toronto OVER 209.5 game score
• Tobias Harris OVER 15.5 points
• Tyrese Maxey OVER 18.5 points
As always, play safe and don’t chase.
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