This is the game. This has to be the game. The Toronto Raptors have one of the best coaches in the game, a stable of long, athletic front-court defenders and two stars who have underperformed on offence. So Game 3 should be a game of adjustments where we see what’s real and what homecourt advantage can bring. The only problem: I’m not sure Raptors coach Nick Nurse and his team have an adjustment to make.
That could be a huge problem for the Raptors, but it could mean some easy money for us, because wow this line is a lot closer than I thought it would be.
Let’s get to the picks for Wednesday's action!
Philadelphia 76ers (-2, -130) vs. Toronto Raptors (+2, +110): 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Sportsnet
It’s already been a bummer of a series for anyone who likes fun basketball. Scottie Barnes is out with an ankle sprain, Gary Trent Jr. has a non-COVID illness and Thaddeus Young is dealing with a hand injury. For a Raptors team that rolls out one of the NBA’s shortest benches and has struggled to match up with the Sixers through two games, that could spell doom. More importantly, it could spell sweep.
If Tyrese Maxey is going to continue playing like Derrick Rose with a jumper, it’s a wrap. He likely comes back to Earth, as I expect the Raptors to bend a little more toward him defensively. Whether or not Nurse designs it that way, Toronto defenders have twice watched Maxey torch them, and it’s only natural for an adjustment to come against him.
This line is way too close for me to pick the Raptors, who are only 4-4 this season as home dogs. I’ve got the Sixers to beat the spread and push the Raptors to the brink. But with Matisse Thybulle’s vaccination status leaving him unable to travel to Canada, I also like Pascal Siakam to go over 25.5 points (-105) without an elite wing defender to harry him.
Bonus prop: This is precisely the kind of relatively low-stakes playoff game James Harden thrives in.
I think he goes over 20.5 (-110) and gets to a double-double (-145).
Brooklyn Nets (+3.5, +140) at Boston Celtics (-3.5, -160): 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT
This line feels right, because I guess we’re all kind of riding high off that incredible final sequence from Boston to win Game 1.
But let’s be real: Boston needed a perfect final minute and a heroic series of perfect decisions from Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and Jayson Tatum just to win by one point in a game where Kevin Durant shot 37.5 per cent and got to the line only five times. A game where Old Man Al Horford turned back the clock with 20 and 15. I think all of that is coming back to the mean Wednesday night. This series has seven games written all over it, and Game 2 feels like it’s primed for a Durant explosion. Give me the Nets and the points. I think they win this outright, but I’ll take 3.5 points while I’m here.
I’m also leaning heavily toward the OVER on KD’s made three-pointers at 2.5 (+145). The guy is the most talented scorer the game has seen, and after a lackluster performance in Game 1, I think we see an extra-motivated KD.
Chicago Bulls (+10, +425) at Milwaukee Bucks (-10, -550): 9:30 p.m. ET / 6:30 p.m. PT
There’s no need to spill much ink over this one. Going into this series, the consensus seemed to be that the Bulls would be lucky to win a game against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks. Well, Game 1 was that opportunity and Chicago made a mess of it. Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton were bad, the Greek Freak was inefficient, and yet there were the Bulls losing to Brooke Lopez. Don’t be surprised if this game is over in the third quarter. Despite the big line, the Bucks are the play here.
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The Sicko Same Game Parlay: Wednesday night is Philly -2, James Harden double-double and OVER 20.5 points, Tyrese Maxey OVER 18.5 points. That’s paying off at +800.
As always, play safe and don’t chase.
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