Following what has been one of the most wildly entertaining playoffs I can remember, we just had two nights in a row in which three of the four games played were absolute blowouts. Like … embarrassing ones. As a Warriors fan I'm embarrassed about Wednesday night, and if I was a 76ers or Mavericks fan, I'd be embarrassed for my team as well.
We'll get to Warriors-Grizzlies tomorrow. For today what's important is figuring out what the root causes of the Mavs and Sixers getting destroyed were, and whether those are likely to change in Game 6.
Forecasting: an imprecise science. Well … not a science. A sloppy art form!
Overall record against the spread: 21-20-1
Miami Heat (+2, +115) at Philadelphia 76ers (-2, -135) – 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT on Sportsnet One
The bad news for Philadelphia is they got run out of the gym in Game 5, with Miami obliterating them 120-85. The good news is it seemed to be mostly an effort thing, which is easily correctable and probably will be corrected at home for Game 6.
The swing players on Tuesday for Miami were Max Strus and Gabe Vincent, who combined for 34 points and 15 rebounds on 12-20 shooting. I really like Miami's All-Undrafted backcourt, but they're the kind of players who tend to play better at home in the playoffs. Plus, I think a player as prideful as Joel Embiid will leave it all on the floor in an elimination game.
I don't care about the history of choking that James Harden and coach Doc Rivers share. In these playoffs, when Embiid plays well the 76ers win. I like the 76ers (-2). I'll take the OVER on Joel Embiid's points (25.5) and Danny Green's points (7.5).
Phoenix Suns (-2, -130) at Dallas Mavericks (+2, +110) – 9:30 p.m. ET / 6:30 p.m. PT
OK, the Game 5 blowout in this series felt repeatable. I mentioned in my predictions for that game I expected a defensive adjustment from Monty Williams. And boy did we get one. The Suns locked up all of Dallas' role players and basically looked Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson in the eyes and dared them to win a game on their own.
Players not named Doncic or Brunson combined to score just 31 points on 8-31 shooting. That feels replicable to me, even with the regular role-player-at-home performance boost. The Suns just stuck to Dallas' shooters and took away passing lanes for their two creators. You can do that again if you're Phoenix. Players like Reggie Bullock and Dorian Finney-Smith are relatively easy to solve if you are willing to just not help too hard off them.
The other factor in the Phoenix blow out was the Suns finally exerting their size advantage. Deandre Ayton was great, and the Suns as a team dominated inside, going +12 in rebounding, +20 in points in the paint, and +12 on second chance points. Those stats say the Suns won the effort battle on Tuesday, in addition to winning the tactical battle. Which, again, feels sustainable. I've got Phoenix (-2) and as usually I'm hitting Mikal Bridges OVER 1.5 steals and blocks combined again (a bet we've hit four games in a row). It also feels like Chris Paul is due for a game where he can score, so I'm also taking Paul OVER 15.5 points.
The Sicko Same Game Parlay of The Night pays off at +900
• Phoenix Suns Money Line
• Mikal Bridges OVER 1.5 steals and blocks combined
• Chris Paul OVER 15.5 points
• Deandre Ayton OVER 17.5 points
As always, play safe and don't chase.
