The Miami Heat might be the most unheralded No. 1 seed in recent memory. There is plenty of talk about the title hopes of the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers, but for some reason, Miami has flown under the radar. I’m feeling them. Especially in this matchup with an Atlanta team that is far too reliant on Trae Young’s individual brilliance to give Miami’s otherworldly team defence much of a problem.
In other news, the two series that the books had as the surest things are now looking … well, decidedly less sure. Milwaukee will be without all-star wing Khris Middleton, who sprained his MCL in Game 2. Word is he’ll be out up to four weeks. And Chicago probably should already be up 2-0. In the West, Phoenix will be without All-NBA guard Devin Booker indefinitely after he tweaked a hamstring on Wednesday. All this means three very tight lines on a Friday night.
So let’s have some fun.
My overall record against the spread: 4-2.
Miami Heat (-1.5, -120) at Atlanta Hawks (+1.5, +100) – 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT
This is feeling like a sweep. Miami’s defence is perfectly built to give a heliocentric player like Young nightmares. He’s got to deal with former Raptor Kyle Lowry at the point of attack and, if he beats him, he’s looking at Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo helping. His usual pick-and-roll virtuosity gets bogged down by the Heat’s dedication to switching. And as Trae Young goes, so go the Hawks.
I’m thinking the line would be somewhere in the -7 range on a neutral floor, and the Heat are so chock-full of battle tested veterans that I’m thinking the home court advantage at The Fortress won’t matter much. Give me the Heat (-1.5). And while I’m at it, I’ll take Jimmy Butler OVER 0.5 threes made.
Milwaukee Bucks (-2.5, -140) at Chicago Bulls (+2.5, +120) – 8:30 p.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. PT
Milwaukee is 18-9 against the spread as road favourites this season, which has me leaning Milwaukee. The Bucks have failed to meet expectations thus far in the series, and they’re a sub-500 team without Middleton this season.
But even with Middleton playing, the Bulls have the series tied 1-1 and should probably be up 2-0 if not for an extremely rough stretch run in Game 1. Chicago is looking frisky, but Giannis Antetokounmpo has ascended to that “I’m terrified to bet against him” level.
I’ll probably stay away because of the uncertainty around what the Bucks will look like sans Middleton. That said, I’ve got Milwaukee (-2.5) to take this game, as I fully expect Giannis to have a big game, because he simply must. I’ll take Zach Lavine OVER 22.5 points as well, with Bucks defensive stalwart Jrue Holiday forced onto DeMar DeRozan more often in Middleton’s absence.
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Phoenix Suns (-1.5, -125) at New Orleans Pelicans (+1.5, +105) – 9:30 p.m. ET / 6:30 p.m. PT
The New Orleans Pelicans are embodying the neutral observer’s favourite thing in sports: The Frisky Underdog. I’m going to basically throw out the regular season because these Pelicans have been a new team since they traded for guard C.J. McCollum.
He’s averaging 24 points, eight rebounds and more than seven assists in the playoffs, but the real revelation in Game 2 was Brandon Ingram. The rangy wing had 37/11/9 on astounding efficiency in NOLA’s win. Which begs the question: If you’re Suns coach Monty Williams, do you move Defensive Player of the Year finalist Mikal Bridges onto Ingram?
That situation would likely mean Chris Paul on McCollum, which would in turn mean the 36-year-old point guard has to carry the offence without Booker and pick up a tough defensive assignment. If anyone can pull it off, it’s CP3. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Monty opt out of that, stick Cam Johnson on Ingram and say, “do it again.”
I’m not too worried about the Suns offence, since they can always go to the Paul-Deandre Ayton high pick-and-roll, a play that has been one of the NBA’s most efficient actions over the past two years.
I’m going to stick with the Suns (-1.5). All glory and faith to the Point God. I also like Bridges OVER 16.5 points without Booker in the lineup. There should be plenty of extra shots to go around.
The Sicko Same Game Parlay for Friday Night pays off at +3300:
· Phoenix -1.5
· Chris Paul OVER 20.5 points
· Mikal Bridges OVER 16.5 points
· Brandon Ingram Double-Double
As always, play safe and don’t chase.
