Sometimes, Giannis Antetokounmpo just feels inevitable. The Greek Freak was everywhere, dropping 41-12-8 with 2 steals and 2 blocks. Which is great, because we took the over on his points and he delivered, which covered up the heartbreaking push on my Bucks -2 bet. Game 3 was exactly the kind of game that led me to pick Milwaukee in the series despite how dominant Boston looked in the first round: Giannis has reached a point where I really don’t want to bet against him.
In the West, the Grizzlies and Warriors are engaged in a good old-fashioned brouhaha of a series. And it’s already claimed two bodies. After Golden State lost Gary Payton II to a broken elbow after a collision in midair with Dillon Brooks in Game 2, Memphis star Ja Morant was pulled from Game 3 with a knee injury that coach Taylor Jenkins says will have him out for Game 4.
At this point, the only healthy team remaining is the Boston Celtics. So, let’s make some picks.
Overall record against the spread: 16-18-1
Boston Celtics (+1, -110) at Milwaukee Bucks (-1, -110) – 7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT
Personally, I’m staying away from this one. The way Milwaukee defends combined with how streaky Boston’s shooters are just makes for some incredibly wide swings game to game. I still feel like the Celtics have a much wider margin for error, as Antetokounmpo essentially needs to be Superman for his team to catch a dub.
It feels like it’s probably time to start acknowledging how well Wes Matthews has guarded Jayson Tatum, after he held the All-Star to just 10 points on 4-19 shooting from the field. The job Matthews has done there has allowed Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer to keep using Giannis as a roving defender/destroyer of worlds, which cascades into numerous great things for Milwaukee. It also might be time to admit the world-beating Milwaukee defence of last season is back with the return of Brook Lopez.
All that said, this series has felt like it was going to go back and forth since before it started. After all, Giannis can’t put up 42 every night, can he? He definitely can, and I’m going to hate myself when he does, but I’ve got Boston (+1), and I like Old Man Al Horford OVER 11.5 and 8.5 rebounds as the big man has looked like he found the fountain of youth.
Memphis Grizzlies (+10, +375) at Golden State Warriors (-10, -500) – 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT
I don’t know how much we should take away from the offensive performance Golden State delivered on Saturday. Sure, the Grizzlies played some of the most lackadaisical playoff defence I’ve seen this year. But the Warriors posted team shooting splits of 64/53/90, and when a team is that hot, there’s not much to be done.
There are, however, two things worth noting coming out of Game 3. First, obviously missing Ja Morant will matter to Memphis. I know anyone who has consumed more than 10 seconds worth of NBA content knows by now that Memphis is 20-5 without Morant, but missing your best player and emotional leader in the playoffs against a tenured bunch like Golden State is different than missing him during the regular season.
The second key takeaway is the Dubs managed to win the rebounding battle for a third consecutive game, a stat Memphis dominated all season. This adjustment seems real, with Golden State constantly sending three bodies at the boards on misses. That allows them to turn their stellar defence into transition offence, and with four good shooters on the court at most times, that’s when the Warriors are at their most lethal.
I think the Warriors take this one, but the double digit line is scaring me away from a true spread bet. I’m here to make picks though, so give me Golden State (-10). As of writing, player props aren’t fully out for the Grizzlies (tough to forecast when you’re unsure of what Ja’s injury will mean for everyone else’s minutes), but I love the way the Warriors’ wings are rebounding, so give me Klay Thompson OVER 4.5 rebounds (listed at +115 right now) and Andrew Wiggins OVER 5.5 rebounds.
The Sicko Same Game Parlay for Monday Night pays off at +750
· Golden State Warriors -5.5 alternative point spread
· Andrew Wiggins OVER 5.5 rebounds
· Klay Thompson OVER 4.5 rebounds
· Stephen Curry OVER 3.5 threes made.
As always, play safe and don’t chase.
