Though it’s been a bizarre year start to the year, the NCAA Men’s Division I Basketball Tournament will tip off beginning Thursday with the First Four, followed by the Round of 64 beginning in earnest on Friday.
Like everything else in the world, college basketball was greatly impacted by COVID-19 with the season carried out in the midst of the pandemic and not every team coming away unscathed.
Most notably, traditional blue bloods Duke and Kentucky won’t be in the big dance for the first time since 1976.
The Blue Devils came into the season ranked as the No. 9–ranked team according to the AP poll, but were overall disappointing, finishing the season with just a 13-11 record and losing top recruit Jalen Johnson to injury. Then, in the ACC Tournament with an outside chance to still make the Big Dance, disaster struck as one of their walk-on players tested positive for COVID, forcing them to forfeit.
Kentucky didn’t have as bad luck with the novel coronavirus as Duke did. They were just bad, going 9-16 on their season as John Calipari’s high-risk, high-reward strategy of relying on talented freshmen caught up to him. This season’s Kentucky squad simply couldn’t mesh with each other and were just too inexperienced to make any noise.
But even without those two powerhouse programs, the tournament will carry on. It also figures to be safer than the regular season and conference tournaments as it will take place in a bubble of sorts in the state of Indiana — in fact, the majority of games will be located in the city of Indianapolis.
So, once things get rolling, the tournament should run without much interruption, and “One Shining Moment” should play at the end of everything with a champion successfully crowned.
To help get you ready for the tournament, here’s a primer including some of the favourites heading into the tournament, upsets and sleeper picks to help you out with your brackets, some top NBA prospects to watch for and a look at this author’s personal Final Four and championship picks.
Unfamiliar Schedule
Before getting into any of the real nitty gritty, here’s a look at the schedule for the tournament this year.
It’s much different than in years past, so look closely:
• First Four: Thurs., March 18, at 4:00 p.m. ET
• Round of 64: Fri., March 19, and Sat., March 20, beginning at 12:00 p.m. ET both days
• Round of 32: Sun., March 21, and Mon., March 22, beginning at 12:00 p.m. ET both days
• Sweet 16: Sat., March 27, at 2:00 p.m. ET, and Sun., March 28, at 1:00 p.m. ET
• Elite Eight: Mon., March 29, at 7:00 p.m. ET, and Tues., March 30, at 6:00 p.m. ET
• Final Four: Sat., April 3, at 5:00 p.m. ET
• NCAA championship game: Mon., April 5, at 9:00 p.m. ET
As you can see from this schedule, just about the only thing that’s remained the same is the traditional Saturday Final Four and Monday national championship game dates. Everything else has been shifted a bit because of COVID-19 testing that will need to take place.
Essentially, the schedule looks weird to allow as much time as possible for teams to get healthy.
The @marchmadness bracket is set! Who's your pick to win it all? #SelectionSunday | #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/hJj5qyVrQo
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) March 14, 2021
The Favourites
Here’s a look at the favourites of the tournament broken up by the region they’re playing in.
West Region
No. 1 Gonzaga: To be frank, there’s no other team in the Gonzaga’s bracket who should be able to give them any trouble.
The consensus favourite to win it all, the Zags are looking to be the first undefeated team since Indiana did it in 1976 and they should be able to do so.
This is a stacked team that features a killer combination of both top-end talent and veteran leadership — two ingredients that will always take a team far in a tournament environment.
And better yet, the Zags have been tested already this season, most notably rallying past BYU after carrying a 12-point deficit at the half to win the WCC title. Additionally, the Nos. 2, 3 and 4 seeds in the bracket — Iowa, Kansas and Virginia — are teams Gonzaga has already beat handily this season. And even though those victories came early on, it’s not like the Zags have regressed since then. If anything, they’ve only gotten better as the season has gone on.
Gonzaga is the No. 1–overall seed for a reason, and while it’s true anything can happen in a one-and-done situation, the fact is there should be no one in their region who can touch them.
South Region
No. 1 Baylor: The Bears have had a season that’s played out in three separate parts. They first went 17-0 and were looking like the best team in college basketball, but then COVID-19 ravaged their team and they were forced to miss games, losing some of the momentum they had captured as a result.
Baylor was able to capture some of that momentum back with a strong performance in the Big 12 Tournament, but ultimately bowed out in the semifinals to Oklahoma State.
In this region, Baylor is certainly the best team, but they aren’t a guaranteed thing because of the landmines that this region presents (more on this later).
No. 2 Ohio State: Ohio State managed to overcome a late four-game losing streak with a great Big Ten Conference Tournament that saw them come up just short against champion Illinois. Led by junior guard Duane Washington Jr., the Buckeyes are a balanced team that can make a run but, like Baylor, will have to navigate a tough path of their own in the bottom half of the South Region.
No. 4 Purdue: Led by do-everything forward Trevion Williams, the Boilermakers could emerge from the South because of the slow pace and smothering defence they’re able to play, which positions Williams to take games over and win it for them. It’s not the most consistent means of winning, but it’s gotten Purdue this far.
No. 5 Villanova: Villanova is probably under-seeded as a No. 5 seed, mainly because the team didn’t perform as well as it should have in the Big East Tournament. No matter — being seeded lower may work in the Wildcats’ favour as they’re talented and experienced enough to make it past Purdue and even Baylor, if they make it that far.
Midwest Region
No. 1 Illinois: The Big Ten Tournament champions are riding high with momentum heading into the tournament and could very well ride this wave straight to a Final Four appearance thanks to the magnificent play of Ayo Dosunmu.
The Fighting Illini are probably the second best team in college basketball at the moment and are expected to make it out, but that doesn’t exactly mean such a thing will happen.
No. 2 Houston: The best team Houston’s had since the Phi Slamma Jamma days, this Cougars squad prefers to drag teams into the mud with suffocating defence rather than blow past them with soaring offence.
This is one major reason why Illinois could be in trouble in this region. If the Illini meet the Cougars in the Elite Eight, Houston’s defence could just straight up stall them. Additionally, this is why it’s tough to put much stock in West Virginia in the Midwest past making the Sweet 16. The Mountaineers want to play a free-flowing offensive game that Houston has the ability to shut down.
No. 4 Oklahoma State: One of the hottest teams entering the tournament, the Cowboys are also probably under-seeded and should be a No. 3 or maybe a No. 2 seed.
With elite NBA prospect Cade Cunningham leading the way and capable of doing basically everything in the college game, Oklahoma State is not to be underestimated and very well could upset Baylor should they meet.
East Region
No. 1 Michigan: This region would have been set up very nicely for Michigan to walk into a Final Four appearance, but the injury to Isaiah Livers, one of their best players, poses a lot of problems.
Livers’ status is still up in the air and even if he’s able to play, there’s no guarantee how effective he’ll be, making Michigan much more vulnerable than before.
The Wolverines can still get the job done thanks to talented names like Hunter Dickinson and Franz Wagner, but the task is a lot tougher than before.
No. 2 Alabama: The Crimson Tide have their own health problems to deal with as key Canadian guard Joshua Primo is dealing with a knee injury.
There’s hope he could return later in the tournament, but for that to happen, the Tide need to make it that far. That said, Alabama has lots of momentum as they’re coming off an SEC Tournament title that featured sophomore guard Jahvon Quinerly winning tournament MVP honours.
No. 3 Texas/No. 4 Florida State: This is a bit of a cop-out, but because of the uncertainty around Michigan, really and truly, all four of the top seeds have a good shot of reaching the Final Four (and even more teams if you want to look hard enough).
Simply put, the East Region is something of a crapshoot where you can reasonably talk yourself into 10 different teams finding a pathway to the final weekend of play.
[radioclip id=5087666]
Possible Cinderellas to Watch For
Now for the fun part. The upsets and sleeper picks that you may want to look into taking as you fill out your bracket.
Once again, these will be broken up by region.
West Region
No. 6 USC: The West Region is kind of boring because of the quality of teams making up the top four seeds — with Gonzaga, of course, as the far-and-away best team — So just going chalk in this region isn’t a bad idea at all, with one exception.
USC’s high-flying offence could present real problems for No. 3 Kansas in the Round of 32 and, if they make it that far, even No. 2 Iowa in the Sweet 16. Top NBA prospect Evan Mobley is a game-changing talent and could win a couple games by himself for the Trojans.
South Region
No. 9 Wisconsin: The Badgers are sorely under-seeded and will make the poor Tar Heels pay for it in the first round. After that, they’ll give Baylor everything they can handle.
This doesn’t necessarily means Baylor will go down to Wisconsin, but the possibility is very real, so if you like to gamble in your bracket, that Round of 32 matchup is an enticing one.
No. 14 Colgate: If you like seeing lots of points being put up then the Round-of-64 matchup between Colgate and No. 3 Arkansas is the game for you. It’s also a game that’s ripe for a rare 14-3 upset because, for as much as The Razorbacks can put the ball in the basket, the Raiders might be even better at doing so.
Arkansas always wants to get into a shootout, but doing so with Colgate might end up dooming them.
Midwest Region
No. 8 Loyola Chicago: If the Ramblers can get past what should be an ultra-competitive first game with Georgia Tech, that would pave the way to a Round-of-32 matchup with No. 1 Illinois. If that comes to pass, Loyola’s turtle-esque pacing and lockdown defence could very well lead to a big upset over the Illini.
East Region
No. 12 Georgetown: Hoya Paranoia is back, and there’s no reason to think it can’t just continue after Patrick Ewing and Georgetown’s remarkable Big East Tournament championship run. The Hoyas will see a tough Colorado squad, but Georgetown wasn’t even supposed to be in the Big Dance anyway — so why can’t they keep the surprise run going and beat the Buffaloes?
No. 11 Michigan State/UCLA: If you’re going to watch any of the First Four games Thursday, make it the one between Michigan State and UCLA, who will be fighting for a No. 11 seed and a date with No. 6 BYU.
And no disrespect to BYU, but go ahead and punch in this 11-seed upset over them. No matter who comes out of this play-in game, they’ll have the credentials to get the job done.
[relatedlinks]
NBA Prospects to Keep an Eye On
For those only interested in NBA basketball, the NCAA Tournament is a great spot to get an early look at some of the league’s future stars. This year’s tournament features a number of high prospects. Here’s a look at five guys you may want to keep an eye on.
Cade Cunningham, Oklahoma State
The best NBA prospect in this year’s draft according to most talent evaluators, Cunningham is a freshman who can do everything on the basketball court and does so with the mouth-watering measurables of being six-foot-eight and 220 pounds.
He projects to be a very large NBA combo guard, but could very easily fill in at any wing role at the next level.
Jalen Suggs, Gonzaga
The vaunted Zags’ best player, this freshman guard is similar to Cunningham in that he can seemingly do everything on the court, but lacks the overwhelming size.
Regardless of that, however, what Suggs has that no other prospect in the tournament does is the so-called “it factor.” As he illustrated in the WCC title game against BYU, Suggs has a real feel and flare for the moment and isn’t afraid of grabbing hold of it and making it his own. There are very few players, including NBA stars, who can do that.
Evan Mobley, USC
As briefly mentioned before, Mobley is an intoxicating talent who fits everything you want out of a modern big-man prospect.
The skinny seven-foot-tall sophomore leads the Trojans in scoring and rebounding, and gets his job done in a variety of ways, whether it be on the roll with his coordination and natural athleticism or out on the perimeter as a pick-and-pop threat.
If you’ve never seen him play, think of Mobley as a younger, higher-ceiling Chris Boucher.
Moses Moody, Arkansas
A smooth-shooting two guard with great size for the position at six-foot-six, Moody is capable of filling it up in a hurry.
He’s probably the best pure shooting prospect in this year’s draft and, like a Joe Johnson, utilizes his big frame to create space for his shot all over the floor.
Scottie Barnes, Florida State
There are some players who are simply unfairly naturally gifted, and Barnes is one of them.
A six-foot-nine, 225-pound athletic specimen with a great nose for the ball and solid vision, the only thing holding him back is his lack of a jump shot. That said, there was also this guy named Pascal Siakam who had a similar profile coming out of college, and he’s done all right at the next level.
His poor shooting will hurt the Seminoles in the tournament, but he’ll have lots of time to make improvements in that area before his first game in the league.
Tournament Prediction
Lastly, here’s how I view the Final Four and who will win it all.
The Final Four will be Gonzaga, Baylor, Oklahoma State and Alabama with the Zags completing the first perfect season since 1976 in a fantastic championship game with Baylor.
1:40