It’s Day 5 of 30 Teams 30 Picks. Today: The division that could be the league’s best if everything breaks right, or the league’s most top-heavy if it doesn’t. The Pacific Division is the one I spend the most time with, as a Warriors follower, so if I miss on more than one of these picks, feel free to fade me for the rest of time.
Western Conference – Pacific Division
The Phoenix Suns were an all-time great regular season team in 2021-22. Through the first few months of the season, the Suns and Golden State Warriors were head and shoulders above the rest of the league. But the big money teams in Los Angeles failed to show up.
I know it’s all the rage to write off the Lakers, but you’ll never catch me doubting Lebron James. Assuming a healthy Anthony Davis plays, the Lakers are anything but an easy out. Then you have the Clippers, who come in as a top five title favourite at most books (around +700).
In fact, in the Dubs, Clips and Suns, the Pacific Division features three of the top five teams in the league in terms of title odds. Like I said yesterday: The West is an absolute gauntlet.
Golden State Warriors – o/u 50.5 wins
Key additions – Donte DiVincenzo (G), JaMychal Green (F), Patrick Baldwin Jr. (Wing)
Key losses – Gary Payton II (G), Otto Porter Jr. (F), Nemanja Bjelica (C), Juan Toscano-Anderson (F)
They lost their two most important role players in Payton and Porter, but in picking up DiVincenzo and Green, the Warriors have essentially shuffled some things around their core. Those two approximate what Payton and Porter do, and the calculus at the centre position seems to be that James Wiseman will eat the bulk of Nemanja Bjelica’s minutes.
We can talk about the moves along the margins with the Golden State Warriors all we want. But the only thing that matters to me is they have Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. Since that triad’s coming out party in the 2012-13 season, the Warriors have averaged nearly 53 wins per year.
That number jumps to 59 if you eliminate the two COVID-impacted seasons during which every major Warriors contributor missed significant time. Point is: The Curry-era Dubs win 51 games in their sleep. Hell, their Big Three played a total of one game together last year and they still mustered a 53-win season that honestly felt like light work.
Give me the OVER 50.5 wins and this is the most confident I’ll be in any of these 30 picks.
Phoenix Suns – o/u 52.5 wins
Key additions – Josh Okogie (Wing) and a whole lot of Kevin Durant noise, but no movement
Key losses – JaVale McGee (C)
On the one hand, the fact the Suns are only getting 52.5 wins when they’re essentially running back a roster that went to the finals in 2020-21 and won 64 games last season feels like an easy over pick.
On the other hand, the way Phoenix went out against Dallas makes it tough. That was a full blown, toddler-who-didn’t-get-their-ice-cream meltdown. DeAndre Ayton quit on his teammates, Mikal Bridges suddenly didn’t look like a top three defender, and Chris Paul looked his age as soon as he turned 37.
Devin Booker was great. But even he disappeared in the last two games against the Mavs. It’s the kind of meltdown that reverberates through a franchise for years. Decades even. Heaven help them if the NBA ever finishes it’s investigation into owner Robert Sarver’s alleged racism and general toxicity.
But at the end of the day, they have two elite pick and roll ball handlers, a very good pick and roll big, and a team defence that’s still underrated. I’m so deeply torn on this team, I’ll probably stay away when it comes to laying serious money. But I don’t mind the OVER 52.5 wins.
Los Angeles Clippers – o/u 52.5 wins
Key additions – John Wall (PG), Moses Brown (C)
Key losses – Isaiah Hartenstein (C)
Let’s make something abundantly clear off rip: This team is deep, it’s talented, but it’s still dependant on Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to be anything more than a frisky underdog. The Los Angeles Clippers are bona fide title contenders, but we’re talking regular season wins for a team with both its stars coming off serious injuries in the last calendar year.
Last season, both George and Leonard were out for most (all, in Kawhi’s case) of the year and the L.A. Clippers were fun in a “how are they doing this?!” sense. When I said this division could be the NBA’s best if everything breaks right, I was talking about the Lakers mostly. But it applies to their Crypto Arena roommates as well.
Kawhi has reached a point in his career where it’s tough to imagine him playing more than 55 or so games. PG13 was once one of the league’s most reliable stars, but he hasn’t played more than 54 games in a season since coming to the Clippers.
If I hate one type of betting beat, it’s losing to a backdoor garbage time cover. If I hate two things the second is being left holding the bag on a futures bet because someone gets hurt.
For that reason, the pick is UNDER 52.5 wins. Assuming Kawhi plays 60 games (that’s charitable) and the Clippers win 70 percent of those games, that’s 42 wins. Given those extremely generous numbers, do the Clips win 10 of 22 remaining games without Kawhi?
Maybe. But I ain’t betting on it.
Sacramento Kings – o/u 32.5 wins
Key additions – Keegan Murray (F), Malik Monk (G), Kevin Huerter (Wing)
Key losses – Donte DiVincenzo (G), Mo Harkless (F)
Looking at a possible crunch time lineup of De’Aaron Fox, Davion Mitchell, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes and Domantas Sabonis, the Sacramento Kings are world beaters by no means, but they could be one of the friskier bottom-of-the-table teams in the league.
I subscribe to the “field as many players as possible that don’t suck” philosophy of roster building. The Kings are surprisingly deep when it comes to competent NBA players. Add to the above line up guys like Richaun Holmes, Malik Monk, Trey Lyles and Summer League MVP Keegan Murray and you’ve got a pretty solid nine-man rotation.
What the Kings lack is true star power. Fox has yet to develop into the stud we all thought he’d be, and Domantas Sabonis has seemingly topped out as a fringe All-Star who can get exposed in screen actions against teams with good backcourts.
This pick is more about how good I think the West (and Pacific Division) will be this year, because I do think the Kings are improved, but give me the UNDER 32.5 wins on Sacramento. Until the NBA’s loveable losers actually turn it around, I’m not betting on it to happen.
Los Angeles Lakers – no line
Key additions – *sigh*
Key losses – *heavy sigh*
Look. I get it. The Lakers produce huge numbers. TV ratings. Views. Clicks. Off-season teammate snubs.
Part of me doesn’t even want to write this section. With the Russell Westbrook situation remaining up in the air, there’s no number. They’re already the most talked about 33-win team I can remember.
And yet, I think whatever line the books end up posting for Los Angeles could be an interesting bet. Everyone is so down on them, I could see the number being around 35 wins if they can’t move Westbrook.
But the Lakers still have LeBron James. Despite being so old his career started when I was a sophomore in high school, LeBron would have finished second in the NBA in points per game had he played enough games.
They also have Anthony Davis, who remains an elite big when he’s healthy. As much as it pains me to say it, the hoops collective is sleeping on the Lakeshow. If the number is below 38, I’m in on the over. Confidently.
25 down, five to go. Join me tomorrow to break down the Southwest and its oodles of young talent.
As always, play safe, and don’t chase.
