Somewhere you have to think that Kyle Lowry is finding time between his golf exploits, keeping tabs on the NBA Finals and doing the math.
The Toronto Raptors point guard hasn’t played a minute of NBA basketball since he smacked the Los Angeles Lakers with 37 points and 11 assists on May 2 to remind them of what they missed by hemming and hawing at the trade deadline. Point made, he shut down for the season.
And yet, while working on his short game, he’s had a fantastic playoff run, and quite possibly a lucrative one.
It’s due to Phoenix Suns guard Chris Paul, the 36-year-old future Hall of Famer who is two wins away from joining Lowry in the "super-smart, super-tough, maybe-not-so-old-after-all" club of husky veteran floor leaders to win an NBA title in recent years.
Paul’s post-season has been a revelation – at least for NBA fans who don’t pay close attention.
In his 16th year, the six-foot (ish) guard elevated a Phoenix Suns team with zero pedigree to a brilliant regular season, earning the No.2 seed and backed it up when it counts. The Suns hadn’t made the playoffs in a decade before acquiring Paul, but are 14-5 in the post-season heading into Game 4 in Milwaukee vs. the Bucks on Wednesday night as they try to take a 3-1 stranglehold in the Finals.
And he’s done it by bringing his still considerable "A" game.
“When it's going like that, you just want to space the floor well and let him orchestrate,” Suns head coach Monty Williams said after Paul put up 32 points and dished nine assists in Phoenix’s Game 1 win.
“I thought he was making the right plays ... he was making shots and when he's in that mode, we just feed off of that.”
He’s also used the force of his reputation and personality to bring out the best in a young group of players still finding their way at the highest levels of the game.
“Everything that Chris tells me or tells me what to do, it’s from the heart,” the Suns' 22-year-old centre DeAndre Ayton — a breakout star in the playoffs — said of Paul’s tough love.
“That dude loves to compete. If you’re a real competitor, you’re not just listening to how somebody’s saying it. You’re just getting the message that we’re going to get this done. That’s the type of relationship we have.”
If only there was another high-IQ, high-character point guard with a championship ring available to finish off a team with title aspirations, or a plug-and-play point guard that could help a young team dream on the playoffs and more?
Why that’s right, Lowry just happens to be a free agent this summer
What’s he worth?
Well, what’s Paul worth?
Two years ago the Houston Rockets traded Paul and two future first-round picks to the Oklahoma City Thunder in return for Russell Westbrook, believing the four-year, $160-million contract Paul was on was too much to have tied up in an aging point player with a concerning habit of getting hurt at the worst possible time.
No matter how the Finals work out, there is no doubt that the Suns feel they got full value for the $41.4 million Paul took home this season, and will gladly spend the $44.2 million he’s owed in 2021-22 if he opts into the final year of his deal on Aug. 1.
There's even speculation that Paul will decline his option and seek an extension for something in the range of $100 million, picking up another $60 million guaranteed that would take him to the cusp of his 40th birthday.
But if a team can’t have Paul, they could do a lot worse than "settling" for Lowry. Statistically they are mostly indistinguishable, and Lowry is almost exactly a year younger than Paul.
Not that Lowry’s been playing at discount. He’s coming off his own three-year deal worth $100 million.
The question he’ll be facing in free agency is if he’ll have to take a slight "pay cut" on what you would expect would be the last significant contract of his career.
That’s never been Lowry’s inclination, and the success Paul has had this season will likely only make him more determined to look for top value.
It can’t hurt how the market would look at Lowry either.
Certainly, Lowry and Paul have been comparing notes. The pair are joined as part of the union executive and have a bond and respect that goes deeper.
In the Raptors' Finals run Paul was texting Lowry notes of encouragement:
“I remember CP hit me up and was like, ‘Yo, you gotta do this,’ during the series,” Lowry recalled on an episode of the LightHarted podcast hosted by New Orleans Pelicans guard Josh Hart, relayed via Raptors Republic's Josh Howe.
“And I’m like, ‘All right, I got you, bro.’ It was like he wanted me to get it so bad."
Similarly, when Paul was limited by a "stinger" in the first round, it was Lowry who was giving him advice, having suffered a similar injury last year.
Could Lowry be next season’s Paul?
The market will likely have a lot to say about that. Lowry has long been linked to the Miami Heat, who can likely only offer the Raptors icon a deal that starts in the $21-million range per season, based on the cap space they would most reasonably have available, which seems cheap for Lowry, given the blueprint Paul is laying out.
But what about the New York Knicks? Should they not be looking at what Paul did for the Suns and dream on what Lowry could do for their young club that earned their first taste of the post-season in May? They certainly have the cap space to take a run at Lowry.
The Chicago Bulls could conceivably find a way to make a credible offer and potentially the Pelicans, too, as teams that have young talent but haven’t shown they know how to win yet.
You have to wonder if the Philadelphia 76ers might try to work out a sign-and-trade deal involving Ben Simmons if they see Lowry as missing piece to a championship lineup around Joel Embiid.
Of course, the Raptors have the hammer in that they can sign their own free agent for whatever they want up to the maximum.
If they want to keep Lowry in the $30-million style he’s become accustomed, they certainly can – and they can go higher.
And given the Raptors are only a season removed from having the NBA's second-best record and they know Lowry best, maybe keeping it rolling with the best player in franchise history is the path that makes sense for all involved.
The answers are weeks away, but one thing is certain: Paul’s post-season performance has teed up Lowry’s off-season perfectly.
