Raptors optimistic for Pistons-like turnaround next season

The Toronto Raptors believe they’re going to be good next year. 

They aren’t coming out and proclaiming it for the world to hear just yet, but if you listen carefully and read between the lines, it becomes evident they believe their tour through the draft lottery will be short-lived: Grab a top-flight talent and get out. 

That they traded for Brandon Ingram and signed him to a three-year contract extension for $120 million is another pretty good tell. 

They also look at the season now winding down and easily convince themselves that they could have been a whole lot different. 

It goes like this: Had the Raptors been reasonably healthy to start the season
— they didn’t have all their starters and key rotation pieces available for a game until the first week of January — it’s not far-fetched to think Toronto could have started the season 16-23 instead of 8-31. 

And had winning been the priority down the stretch, it’s not hard to see a healthy Raptors team flying up the Eastern Conference standings. 

Even after their 117-105 loss to the Detroit Pistons — who clinched a playoff spot with the win — the Raptors are 20-19 since their low point back on Jan. 12.  With the determination to win as many games as possible rather than have lottery odds front and centre and it’s not a stretch to project the Raptors finishing their final 43 games of the season 31-12. 

That adds up to a 47-35 record at the end of this mythical season, which would be good enough to have the Raptors in fifth place in the East, ahead of where Detroit (43-34) is in real life.  

Would the Raptors sign off on that next season? They would be crazy not to. The Pistons are one of the NBA’s best stories this season, having qualified for the playoffs for the first time in six years and doing so coming off a miserable 14-win season a year ago. If they finish the season with 48 wins, it will mark the third largest single-season turnaround in NBA history. 

Which is all well and good, but is it reasonable for the Raptors to believe they also can make a significant jump in the standings a season from now? 

“It's a thing that can definitely happen,” said Raptors head coach Darko Rajakovic when asked about the possibility of a Piston-like turnaround. “There are a lot of reasons that go into that (but) we're hoping that we can continue developing our players, that they're going to make a jump next season and they're going to really use this summer the right way. With the addition of Brandon Ingram on our team, we're really hopeful the next year is going to be the start of something really special for us.”

There’s room for optimism, especially if Ingram can return to full health and the form that made him an all-star at 22 years old. Toronto has added significant depth this season with a strong rookie class that has already contributed and seems to have upside. Ja’Kobe Walter added another strong game to his recent string of them, with 22 points on 8-of-14 shooting, including 4-of-7 from three. The 20-year-old out of Baylor is averaging 15.2 points a game and shooting 57 per cent from three over his last five starts. Rookie point guard Jamal Shead came off the bench for 14 points and nine assists without a turnover in 26 minutes. His 290 assists are second-most all-time for a Raptors rookie and fourth among all rookies this season. 

The Raptors formula will likely have to be a little different from Detroit, who used a large swath of salary cap space to add veterans Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. to give the Pistons some instant locker room maturity
— and more importantly — a trio of proven three-point shooters.

Unless something changes, the Raptors won’t have the option to make a similar roster makeover. With Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl and now Ingram on big-ticket contracts, the Raptors won’t have much flexibility to add talent outside of their draft pick. 

One development the Pistons have benefitted from is the emergence of Cade Cunningham as an All-NBA level player. The big Pistons guard was taken first in the draft where the Raptors took Barnes fourth. The former high school teammates each sat out last night — Cunningham with a bruised calf, Barnes with a bruised hand – but the Pistons star has proven himself a foundation piece for Detroit, averaging 25.7 points, 6.1 rebounds and 9.2 assists on the season and doing it with career-best efficiency. 

Barnes has had a respectable season, with averages of 18.9 points, 7.6 rebounds and 5.8 assists, but apart from his noticeably improved defense, his offensive production has lagged behind his performance from last season and his efficiency has been at a career-low, dragged down by his anemic 26.3 per cent mark from three. If the Raptors are going to make a leap, Barnes will have to as well.

One area the Pistons have thrived in has been in the hard-to-define ‘team culture’ component. They are a group that quite literally fights for each other, as evidenced by the melee they had recently with the Minnesota Timberwolves that spilled over into the stands and resulted in five players being suspended. The Pistons are embracing their ‘Bad Boy’, championship heritage of the late 80s, early 90s and early 2000s.

“For us, it's real. You know what I mean? It's not an act,” said Pistons head coach J.B. Bickerstaff, who is a leading candidate to be coach of the year after being fired in Cleveland last season. “We have a bunch of guys who are tough-minded guys… and I do believe that history matters. I believe paying respect to those that came before you matters, and the mindset of this team is in that light… Detroit basketball is about being physically and mentally tough… and that's who we are. And again, we're different than a lot of other teams, and that's given us an advantage.”

The Raptors have a nice start in that area also — minus the fights — but will have to grow and foster that if next season is going to be the great leap forward they are hoping for. 

Grange for three

In addition to Barnes sitting out to rest his bruised right hand, Rajakovic said pre-game that Ingram isn’t expected to play for Toronto this season. The rangy forward suffered a severe ankle sprain on Dec. 7 when he was still playing for the New Orleans Pelicans. Rajakovic said Ingram has progressed to ‘live’ basketball in team workouts, but is prioritizing him going into the summer healthy for off-season development over risking the possibility of a setback in games that have no meaning between now and April 13.

Dick has been out since March 4 when teammate RJ Barrett fell on him in a scramble and the second-year wing suffered a bone bruise to his knee, among other less significant injuries. The focus for Dick in his down time, said Rajakovic, is to get a head start on his off-season lifting program to add some mass to his thin frame. Dick had a good start to his second NBA season — setting new career highs of 30, 31 and 32 points in first 12 games of the season — but he struggled more as the season went on. His final tally — 14.4 points, 3.6 rebounds and 1.8 assists with an effective field goal percentage of 49.8 — represents modest improvements mostly tied to an increase in minutes. But he was still lacking an uptick in his shooting efficiency, which will be required next season and beyond. 

Swider out, what now? 

The G-League sharpshooter had his best performance of his 10-day contract on its final day as he scored 10 points on 4-of-8 shooting, including a pair of threes. But the Raptors would have to offer him a regular NBA contract for the remainder of the season, and it doesn’t sound like it’s in the cards, even though the Raptors do like him.

One possibility to look for is Brampton native A.J. Lawson having his two-way deal converted to a regular contract as a reward for his good work with Raptors 905 and the big team and as an incentive to keep him in the Raptors development plans for the off-season and into training camp. Lawson had nine points in 23 minutes Tuesday and got the crowd going with a pair of impressive blocked shots in the second quarter: one on a chase down after his own turnover, and another sliding to help and blocking Ausar Thompson at the rim on dunk attempt.

Dennis still menacing

Things didn’t work out the way anyone was expecting for Dennis Schroder when he signed with the Raptors as a free agent in 2023. The veteran guard from Germany was expecting to be a starter on a Raptors team with playoff aspirations. Instead, he found himself coming off the bench of a team tilting toward a mid-season rebuild. Since being traded to Brooklyn at the deadline a year ago, Schroder has since been traded to Golden State mid-season and then Detroit at the deadline in February. But he seems to be a good fit in Detroit. He started and played 36 minutes against the Raptors, finishing with 16 points and seven assists, offset by five turnovers. But his defensive effort is high and he told me he’s really enjoyed the camaraderie and spirit the Pistons have.

He’s got a fan in Bickerstaff, too, who has been playing him huge minutes down the stretch:  “He just knows how to play, first and foremost, and he's got the confidence to make the play. He understands the game at a high level, (and) defensively, he's tough-minded. He doesn't mind picking people up full-court and getting after people. So he's just fit in… he’s a high-level competitor, which is what this group is.