Why Raptors' success this season hinges on use of two-starter lineups

Toronto Raptors' Fred VanVleet, left, and OG Anunoby react after defeating the Los Angeles Lakers in an NBA basketball game Saturday, Aug. 1, 2020, in Lake Buena Vista, Fla. (Ashley Landis/Pool via AP)

There’s no doubt that the Toronto Raptors are a changed team this season. There have been a variety of shifts that, if given a choice, no one on the roster would have preferred. Look no further than their record. Only one season after finishing 53-19, the Raptors have sunk to the middle of the pack and sit at 6-9. There are changes beyond the record. The entirety of Toronto’s 2019-20 centre rotation, in Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka, now play in Los Angeles.

Some changes, however, are voluntary. Nick Nurse and the Raptors have changed the way in which they employ their roster on the court.

Last season, Toronto’s lineups with one starter on the floor managed a net rating of plus-12.8, best in the NBA. That has long been a trend for the Raptors. In fact, going back to the 2012-13 season, Toronto has used one-starter groups for 15.4 per cent of possessions, the seventh-highest frequency in the league over that stretch. Those groups have earned a second-best net rating of plus-4.6. In other words, the time when Toronto does not have all of its starters on the floor has driven much of Toronto’s winning over the last several years.

The consistent variable since 2012-13 has been Kyle Lowry. The Lowry-plus-bench lineups have been a staple of Toronto’s success ever since Lowry became a Raptor. Those groups have undergone many changes, with players like Cory Joseph, Terrence Ross, Patrick Patterson, Fred VanVleet, Bismack Biyombo, and Lucas Nogueira all having benefited from playing alongside Lowry over the years.

Yet, thus far in 2020-21, the Lowry-plus-bench group has been lacking. Toronto has played one-starter groups only 5.1 per cent of the time, 28th in the league, and by far the least-used by the Raptors since acquiring Lowry. Those one-starter groups, not coincidentally, have earned a net rating of minus-13.2.

But the important question that has driven both Toronto’s losses to start the year and wins in the past few weeks: What has replaced those Lowry-plus-bench looks?

The Raptors have used two-starter iterations 29.3 per cent of the time, most frequent of any team this season. It’s been successful, as the Raptors have earned a net rating of plus-3.2.

You can break those lineups down further. The Raptors have chosen to pair their core four players in specific ways. Lowry has played most often alongside OG Anunoby and three bench players, while Pascal Siakam and VanVleet have paired together to form their own transitional unit.

The results -- as you can guess for a team with a 6-9 record -- have been mixed. But if the Raptors are going to dig themselves out of their current hole, it will have to be on the back of at least one or more of the groups that pair one of Lowry or VanVleet with one of Anunoby or Siakam.

(Note that the VanVleet and Anunoby group has been outrageously successful, but that has likely been due to some high-variance luck. They have shot 15-of-28 from deep while taking almost half their shots from that range. Still, with such positive results, even if in few minutes, it’s worth offering VanVleet and Anunoby more minutes together with bench players to see if they can continue winning, if not by such impossible margins.)

It’s telling that for the majority of minutes, Nurse has paired Toronto’s two highest scorers and highest-usage players, Siakam and VanVleet, rather than separating them. That works in theory because Lowry is the team’s best creator for others. Thus, the Raptors are choosing to place its two best scorers together as a sort of life raft to keep their group afloat, whereas Lowry acts as the sea beneath his lineup, lifting all around him.

In that sense, Anunoby acts like a bench player on the offensive end. His usage rate is only 15.7 per cent, ninth on the team, and 29th-lowest among starters in the entire league. Though Anunoby is an efficient offensive player and an elite defender, he doesn’t change the texture of the group like a regular starter does. Lowry’s transitional group thus simulates the Lowry-plus-bench groups that have been such powerhouses for so many years.

Lowry’s ability to create shots for teammates is unique, not as shown through triples -- VanVleet and Siakam are both terrific at creating open triples for teammates -- but in how Lowry creates two-pointers for teammates. On the season, teammates are attempting 12.8 two-pointers after Lowry passes, by far the most on the team, while also shooting 46.1 per cent on them. None of Toronto’s other creators come close to equaling Lowry’s ability to create high-quantity and high-quality two-point shots for teammates. In fact, Lowry has been creating two-point shots for teammates at the seventh-best rate in the league this year.

That ability to create efficient two-pointers is the main reason why the Lowry-plus-bench groups have worked for so long. He has been the team leader in creating two-point attempts for teammates every year since NBA Advanced Stats started tracking the stat in 2013-14. And he’s been Toronto’s leader in teammate field-goal percentage on those created two-pointers in three of those seasons.

That’s why you can put Lowry alongside any foursome of teammates and expect success. He creates easy shots for his teammates. While Siakam and VanVleet create good looks for themselves, and plenty of open triples for teammates, Lowry creates good looks everywhere for everyone, while also doing enough scoring of his own to keep the game in control.

Toronto chooses to play two-starter groups over Lowry alone with the bench because of the skill drop-off from that second starter to the end of the bench. Those end-of-bench options like Yuta Watanaba, Malachi Flynn, or Matt Thomas are talented, but none of them are as complete as Anunoby. He’s now up to 40.9 per cent shooting from deep on the year, and his defence and rebounding are vital.

Partially as a result of Toronto’s lineup choices, the team is running its core four into the ground. They’re the only team with four players in the top-20 of minutes played per game. Lowry has always seen plenty of minutes over his career, but one has to wonder about the toll on his 34-year-old legs. The other three are young enough that it shouldn’t be too taxing, but the Raptors are building a team that’s increasingly dependent on the top of its roster rather than the depth. That’s a change from past years. It reflects a lack of two-way players outside of the starting lineup, in addition to the revelatory Chris Boucher.

However, so too has Toronto’s dependence on two-starter transitional units fueled the team’s rise back through the standings. Since the start of the Western Conference road trip on Jan. 6, the Raptors’ two-starter groups have gone plus-35 over 117 minutes, per NBA Advanced Stats. If you compare that to Toronto’s total numbers of plus-60 over 384 minutes over the same time period, it becomes clear that these two-starter lineups have driven an outsized portion of Toronto’s winning. Furthermore, the team has finally played winning ball over that stretch, going 5-4.

As Toronto’s transitional groups have started to win games, the bench rotation become more consistent, too. Stanley Johnson and Norman Powell have begun to play well together, with the former offering flexible defence and solid offensive decision-making, and the latter’s offence starting to turn the corner. Boucher has been phenomenal in every lineup. Since Jan. 6, Boucher has averaged 16.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks in just 25.6 minutes per game, all while shooting 63 per cent from the floor, 57.1 per cent from deep, and 82.8 per cent from the line. Those three have been staples no matter which two starters have played alongside them.

As Toronto’s lineup choices are starting to crystalize, so too is the team beginning to win. That’s no coincidence. But it doesn’t necessarily mean all the team’s difficulties are in the rearview. The Raptors thrived last season despite various injuries because of the surplus of plug-and-play depth pieces. That doesn’t seem true so far this year. Furthermore, the Raptors need to find a starting lineup that works, as the best they can hope to do with Aron Baynes alongside the core four is break even, rather than build a lead.

But those problems are secondary. Toronto’s primary need as the team started the season in the hole was to find something that works. In two-starter groups, Nurse has found a nugget of success. It’s clear the Raptors remain talented enough to finish with a high seed in the East. Thus 2020-21 is no longer shaping up to be a lost season. If the Raptors want to make real noise in the playoffs, they have other problems to address. But they know that two-starter lineups, for the first time since Lowry joined the team, will be the team’s bedrock for winning.

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