The NBA is back, and Sportsnet is breaking down everything you need to know about each of the 30 teams in the lead-up to tipoff on Tues., Dec. 22.
Today, we look at best- and worst-case scenarios for the Western Conference’s Southwest Division. (Teams are listed in the order in which we believe they’ll finish in the 2020–21 standings.)
Dallas Mavericks
2019–20 finish: 43-32, second in the Southwest, lost in first round.
Major additions: Josh Richardson, Wesley Iwundu, James Johnson, Josh Green (R).
Major subtractions: Seth Curry, Delon Wright, Justin Jackson, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Courtney Lee.
Best-case scenario: Luka wins MVP. Yeah, we’re there already. He posted averages of 28.8 points, 9.4 rebounds and 8.8 assists last year, and was fourth in MVP voting behind only Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James and James Harden, and he’s not even 22 yet. Of course, to get to a place where he’s No. 1 in voting, the Mavs will have to finish better than second in the Southwest, and he’s got help on that front. Newcomers Josh Richardson and rookie Josh Green (who gets some premature Klay Thompson comparisons) should help with two-way guard play and make things a little easier on the Slovenian sensation.
Worst-case scenario: Kristaps Porzingis’s knee-surgery rehab delays his return-to-court activities even further than the current target date of Jan. 1, which leaves Doncic without a running mate for too long during a shortened season. In that case, they could get usurped in the Southwest by the other big up-and-coming team in the Southwest (see next team).
2020–21 season prediction: 44-28, fourth in the West.
New Orleans Pelicans
2019–20 finish: 30-42, fifth in the Southwest, missed playoffs.
Major additions: Steven Adams, Eric Bledsoe, Willy Hernangomez, Kira Lewis Jr. (R).
Major subtractions: Jrue Holiday, Derrick Favors, Frank Jackson, Darius Miller, E’Twaun Moore, Jahlil Okafor.
Best-case scenario: Zion Williamson stays healthy for a full 72 (I know — 72 games is weird), and ups the bar for dunk highlights forever. Along the way, he and Brandon Ingram develop as players and a tandem, and this team reaches new heights early in the rebuild, solidly making the playoffs ahead of any schedule typical of a team that’s just traded away its best two veteran players in the past 18 months. And it’s not that crazy to expect big things. Once Williamson finally got on the court last season, the team went 11-8 before COVID-19 shut things down. That’s the equivalent of 42-30 over a 72-game season (or 48-34 over a regular 82-gamer). They also added Steven Adams and swapped Eric Bledsoe in for Jrue Holiday, which should limit any backsliding.
Worst-case scenario: I’m trying not to make these all about health because it largely goes without saying that stars facing extended IR time will submarine most teams. But the Pelicans’ case feels a little different as Williamson has suffered multiple injuries to both knees over the last two years, and even missed the final three games of the bubble with right knee soreness. Also, coming out of college, the one question about him was if he could stay healthy and injury free at his weight, and the jury is sadly still out. The truth is, no one is demanding playoffs from this team — let alone a playoff-round win. But another injury for Williamson will keep them out of the post-season in the present and dim the future hopes for this franchise, not to mention seriously bum out a lot of people praying for 20 years of success and highlights for this basically universally loved young player.
2020–21 season prediction: 39-33, seventh in the West.
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Houston Rockets
2019–20 finish: 44-28, first in the Southwest, lost in the second round.
Major additions: DeMarcus Cousins, John Wall, Christian Wood, Jerian Grant, Gerald Green.
Major subtractions: Russell Westbrook, Robert Covington, DeMarre Carroll, Jeff Green, Austin Rivers, Thabo Sefolosha.
Best-case scenario: OH COME ON. Why did I agree to do this division, which includes this team? It’s a trap! The Rockets have already undergone a transformation worthy of Extreme Makeover this off-season (from the front office to the coaching staff to the roster), and there’s still the possibility they accede to James Harden’s reported trade demands, so predicting what they’ll look like and how effective they’ll be is kind of a fool’s errand. But here I go, like a fool: The best-case scenario is MVP Harden sticks around and plays like the perennial MVP candidate that he is and that former Kentucky mates John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins are both healthy and effective (their pre-season debut went well!). There should be some backsliding here — chemistry takes time, and defence will likely be an issue. But there’s at least the chance the luckiest/best version of this team earns yet another playoff appearance. Hey — stranger things, right?
Worst-case scenario: You wanna get nuts? Let’s get nuts. How about a repeat of the Raptors’ 2004–05 season, in which a disillusioned Vince Carter tanked his own value en route to one of the most hated trades in NBA history? Stay with me (or don’t! Skip ahead to the Grizzlies, who are at least in a semi-predictable situation): Harden reportedly wants out. If he doesn’t actually get out, he’ll be a rarity among NBA superstars who’ve made similar demands of late. It’s an absolute guessing game how he’d react, but one potential path would lead to dancing on stage with Nelly during an injury layoff. Jokes aside, disgruntled players are rarely perfect ambassadors for their own trade value. If Harden has determined that this partnership is going to end one way or another, it’s way better that it happens quickly and amicably for all parties. We (the North) have seen how bad the alternative can get.
2020–21 season prediction: 38-34, eighth in the West.
Memphis Grizzlies
2019–20 finish: 34-39, third in the Southwest, lost in playoffs play-in game.
Major additions: Desmond Bane (R), Xavier Tillman (R).
Major subtractions: Josh Jackson, Anthony Tolliver, Yuta Watanabe.
Best-case scenario: Making the play-in again. On the back of a Rookie of the Year campaign for Ja Morant, the Grizzlies made the 2020 play-in game in the bubble before losing out to the Portland Trail Blazers, which was a feat in itself in a competitive Western Conference. If Morant and his supporting cast, which includes young blood from the recent NBA draft, can just get back to that place in an even tougher climate, all will be right in Memphis for the time being.
Worst-case scenario: A pretty major tumble down the standings. Fair or not, the goal above is the floor for expectations — anything less and your rebuild is moving in the wrong direction, which is never a great look. But … it feels like a tough climb right now. Considering they won’t have Jaren Jackson Jr. for a good chunk of the season, and they essentially took free agency off, it’s best not to expect a ton of improvement. But teams like the Suns (who got Chris Paul), as well as the Pelicans and Blazers (who got healthy), have made improvements. If the Grizzlies tread water (which is likely), they’re going to get lapped.
2020–21 season prediction: 34-38, 11th in the West.
San Antonio Spurs
2019–20 finish: 32-39, fourth in the Southwest, missed playoffs.
Major additions: Devin Vassell (R).
Major subtractions: Marco Belinelli, Bryn Forbes.
Best-case scenario: This is a weird one. What … did they do this off-season? In a tailor-made time-to-blow-it-up-and-rebuild situation (to recap: they missed the playoffs for the first time in a long time; they have an aging roster that is out of step with the modern NBA; they don’t particularly excel in any one phase of the game), they did not blow it up. Nor did they load up. They just stuck. If the roster stays the same for the whole year, the on-court ceiling is squeaking into the play-in tournament and maybe earning the right to get bounced in the first round of the actual playoffs. But perhaps the best possible outcome for the season would be selling off a few of their big expiring deals — which includes DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gay and Patty Mills — at the trade deadline en route to a really bad record and a lottery-pick stud in the coming draft. That would let them start building around the likes of Dejounte Murray, newly extended former Raptor Jakob Poeltl and new draft pick Devin Vassell, and potentially kick off the next great era of Spurs basketball.
Worst-case scenario: Just going through the motions. This roster and its coaching staff aren’t built to tank, and if they don’t sell at the deadline, chances are excellent they find themselves outside the play-in tournament in the league’s mushy middle at season’s end, which will only further delay that next great era we mentioned above.
2020–21 season prediction: 32-40, 13th in the West.
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