The Toronto Raptors' path to a first-round playoff upset of the Philadelphia 76ers got a lot dicier after Game 1, for a myriad of reasons, but the most concerning is how Toronto’s lineup is shaping up for Game 2.
The Raptors have listed each of Gary Trent Jr., Thad Young and Scottie Barnes as doubtful for Monday night, but that might be optimistic, with Raptors head coach Nick Nurse telling reporters at practice Sunday that he’s not holding out much expectation for any of the trio to join an already lean rotation before Game 3 on Wednesday in Toronto.
“Listen, it doesn’t look good for any of those guys,” said Nurse. They’re all going to be listed as, probably, doubtful. So it doesn’t look good for any of them. But we’ll evaluate it as we go and hopefully we can see where we end up.”
Trent Jr. is sick, having been battling a non-COVID illness, while Young – a lefty – sprained his left thumb just before halftime in Game 1 and didn’t return.
Meanwhile, even before MRI results for Barnes’ very clearly sprained ankle became available, it’s hard to envision how the precocious 20-year-old can be ready to play by Monday night, or even for the rest of the series. Stranger things have happened, and the power of youth is an amazing thing, but it was hard to watch Barnes’ left ankle fold under the full momentum of a pivoting Joel Embiid and not assume that he’s looking at a significant injury with recovering measure in months, rather than days.
So, assuming the Raptors do head into Game 2 missing two starters and a significant rotation piece, are there reasons for optimism that Toronto can be more competitive in Game 2 and either steal a game on the road or at least build some momentum for Games 3 and 4 when they play their first playoff games at home in nearly three years?
Why, sure there are. Here are three:
1. Tyrese Maxey is good, but he’s not that good: The second-year Sixers guard has had a breakout season after more than doubling his scoring average (to 17.5 points a game) and shooting 42.7 per cent from deep, making him a legitimate third option alongside Embiid and James Harden. But it’s hard to imagine he’s got another 38-point night on order — they’re called ‘career games’ for a reason. But the Raptors absolutely need to do a better job accounting for him, even as they continue to shade extra bodies and coverage toward the two Sixers stars, as required.
“It wasn’t like they were drawing up a bunch of plays for him,” Fred VanVleet told reporters at the Raptors practice in Philadelphia on Sunday. “He was just playing in the flow and rhythm of the game. [But] I think we’ll have to try to catch his speed a little bit, get into him a little bit more and maybe show him a little bit more attention as far as off-ball when he was spotting up.
“He got free for a lot of open looks. But give him credit, he played a great game. We’ll try to tighten up a little bit and see where we can limit him, but the first two problems are Joel and James for sure. Sometimes, you gotta give up something, it definitely didn’t need to be 38 to the guy that I was guarding, but sometimes when you’re game-planning for things it’s a give and take.”
2. The Raptors will get back to something closer to their disruptive, regular-season selves: It might be over-simplifying things, but when VanVleet picked up two touch fouls within the game’s first 58 seconds, it created a domino effect. At his best VanVleet is an absolute menace as an on-the-ball defender, but maybe even more so when he’s off the ball and leaving his man to attack scorers with late, strong, swipes at the ball as a help defender. But with the two early fouls VanVleet had to play much more cautiously, both guarding Maxey and helping off of him to make life difficult on Embiid.
Added to the problem was that Trent Jr. was – it turns out – playing after being sick most of last week. Trent Jr. and VanVleet ranked second and fourth in the NBA in deflections per game for the season with 3.9 and 3.4 respectively, but combined for just three for the game against the Sixers. That seems like a pretty good proxy for how comfortable the game was overall for Philadelphia, even more than its measly three turnovers, which was a season-low for a Raptors opponent.
Toronto was 2-6 this year when it forced less than nine turnovers a game and 20-10 when it forced more than 16. A more active and handsy VanVleet in the early going of Game 2 should bode well, and with Trent Jr. likely out, look for Nurse to give minutes to whoever among Dalano Banton, Armoni Brooks or Malachi Flynn is determined to cause some chaos after what was an altogether too comfortable opener for the Sixers.
“I feel like we gotta be more physical and also we gotta [have] more ball pressure,” said Raptors centre Khem Birch. “I think we let the ball in the post too easy and it created opportunities for Maxey. I think we gotta deny Embiid in the post better so other guys don’t get opportunities like that.”
They’re all playoff veterans now: It was not a great introduction to post-season play for the younger members of the Raptors core, outside of Barnes, and we know what happened to him. Leaving aside the health of Trent Jr. for a moment, the Raptors will need some big efforts from the likes of Precious Achiuwa and Chris Boucher, who were non-factors in different ways in Game 1.
One offensive rebound and four rebounds total is not enough from Achiuwa, who did hit a pair of threes on four attempts. As much value as he provides by lifting the defence Toronto still needs a flurry of activity from him in all elements, even more now that Young is potentially out.
Similarly, Boucher had some good moments – his three quick threes in the first half bodes well for the series – but his three quick fouls blunted his aggressiveness also. Not all of that is within his control, but if you’re fouling because you’re late to rotate or slow to make a decision, that’s something that needs to improve.
“Got to make adjustments, that’s all I can say,” said Boucher who may be 29 but was playing his first meaningful playoff minutes and fouled out in 15 minutes of floor time. “Make adjustments, watch the film and be better. I think I was a step slow on a lot of things and do not plan on doing that again … they were just stupid fouls. Step slow and trying to make a play when I was already slow so, like I said, just make adjustments. Game 1’s done, Game 2 I’ll be better.”
With Young likely out, there will be all the minutes available that Achiuwa and Boucher can handle, if they can make the most of them, the vibe around Game 2 should be different.
