Most of the fun in the off-season might have been had by the NBA’s Eastern Conference, but in the West, we’re looking at one of the most densely packed, talent-laden conferences the league has seen in quite some time.
With a staggering 11 teams projected to be above .500, and only 10 playoff spots to go around, every game out west is going to mean something this year.
And that’s without considering the possibility that one of the young teams near the bottom of the conference makes a leap. I don’t think we’re going to see any Western Conference team winning 60 games, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see first and sixth place separated by just a handful of wins.
This is the conference I was looking forward to writing about. We have aging dynasties, new super teams, the defending champs, the new wunderkind and whatever the hell the Clippers are.
It's going to be must-see TV.
Pacific Division
Phoenix Suns: UNDER 51.5 wins
Golden State Warriors: OVER 48.5 wins
Los Angeles Lakers: OVER 47.5 wins
Los Angeles Clippers: UNDER 45.5 wins
Sacramento Kings: OVER 44.5 wins
The Take: This division is an absolute nightmare. It’s stacked beyond belief. First, the Lakers. Before Milwaukee got Damian Lillard, the consensus was the Lakers won the off-season.
They added Taurean Prince, Gabe Vincent, Christian Wood and Cam Reddish to a roster that made the conference finals a year ago. That squad won 43 games, despite starting the season 2-10. This team is very good, and I like them for 50-plus wins, so give me the Lakers OVER 47.5 wins, and I’ve already bought in on them to win the division at +375.
That’s because I’m fading Phoenix. The Suns are going to be a good team, but the way the roster is built puts an inordinate amount of pressure on Kevin Durant. He’s going to need to be their best rim protector and their best rebounder in addition to his regularly-scheduled offensive dominance.
If he doesn’t play at that level, the Suns are going to struggle to get stops. That’s a lot to ask night in and night out from a dude who just turned 35 and is entering his 16th NBA season. Give me Phoenix UNDER 51.5 wins.
The Golden State Warriors, on the other hand, just came off their season from hell. The vibes were terrible, Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins missed a combined 63 games, and they collectively forgot how to play basketball on the road. And they still won 44 games. I think the roster is better this year than last, and simply going .500 on the road last season would have put them tied for first with Denver. The Warriors are going OVER 48.5 wins.
Northwest Division
Denver Nuggets: OVER 52.5 wins
Oklahoma City Thunder: OVER 44.5 wins
Minnesota Timberwolves: UNDER 43.5 wins
Utah Jazz: UNDER 36.5 wins
Portland Trailblazers: UNDER 29.5 wins
The Take: I don’t think I’ve ever been more sure of an over than Denver OVER 52.5 wins. They went over that number last season despite coasting for the final month of the season. They also kind of remind me of the 73-9 Warriors.
The Nuggets, like those Warriors, are the defending champs. And like those Warriors, nobody seems to be talking about them with the respect that warrants. I could see them coming into the season with a big chip on their shoulder, looking to send a message.
I’m surprised the line for the Thunder is this low. They won 40 games last year, brought everyone back, and added the one piece they were missing: an actual centre.
Chet Holmgren isn’t quite Victor Wembanyama, but he’s going to be an impactful player right away. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander now a bonified star, Josh Giddey rounding into form, and Jalen Williams looking like a stud, this team is young, talented and deep. I don’t think they’ll challenge Denver for the division title, but I like Oklahoma City OVER 44.5 wins.
Minnesota? I simply cannot trust this team. I’m staying away from the Timberwolves and the Jazz, since the success Utah had last season feels like it could have been a mirage. I was looking forward to banging Portland’s over, but the number is too high for me there.
Southwest Division
Memphis Grizzlies: OVER 46.5 wins
Dallas Mavericks: OVER 44.5 wins
New Orleans Pelicans: UNDER 43.5 wins
Houston Rockets: UNDER 31.5 wins
San Antonio Spurs: UNDER 29.5 wins
The Take: Well, not every division can be a banger. Let’s start at the bottom. I wouldn’t be surprised to see San Antonio’s number jump up a little bit, especially if Victor Wembanyama looks as good in the first month of the season as he did in the pre-season.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m a Wemby believer, but I think the Spurs are going to be cautious with their new generational talent. If I could guarantee he plays 70+ games, I might like the over here, but I can’t, so I don’t. San Antonio UNDER 29.5 wins is the pick.
The Memphis and Dallas OVERS scare me, but not as much as taking the under would. The Grizzlies will be without Ja Morant for 25 games due to his suspension, but if they can go 13-12 over that stretch, 47 wins should be a relative cakewalk. This has been a consistently great regular season team because they force turnovers and run. That’s been true in Memphis whether Morant is in the lineup or not.
The Mavericks have the talent to win 50 games, but the situation there, with rumblings of Luka Doncic’s frustration with the rosters he’s had and with Kyrie Irving existing, seems combustible. Plus, I think Grant Williams might be their third-best player. That’s not a great sign. The over pick on Dallas is nothing more than my faith in Luka to carry these cats.
As always, play safe, and don’t chase.
