Why Gradey Dick is the most sensible choice to be Raptors' fifth starter

Good NBA teams have five starters and usually at least four players on their bench who could start or have at other times in their careers, or at least will in the future.

Really good NBA teams sometimes have starter-level talent outside their top nine too.

Right now the Toronto Raptors have four NBA starters, total.

Simple math says that’s not enough. The four the Raptors have are easy to identify as they are the four best, most proven and highest-paid players (at least by money remaining on their contracts) on the roster: Scottie Barnes as your do-everything forward, Immanuel Quickley as your point guard, RJ Barrett as your small forward/wing and Jakob Poeltl at centre.

No one is predicting a championship with those four as your core, but even last season they showed they could hold their own. In the 234 minutes they did play together after the trade that brought Barrett and Quickley to Toronto and before injuries ended Poeltl and Barnes' seasons, that group was a robust +12 points per 100 possessions, for example.

But the NBA plays 5-on-5 and since the Raptors didn’t re-sign their starting shooting guard from last season, Gary Trent Jr., they have a spot open.

It seems almost certain the spot will go to second-year guard Gradey Dick, however.

There are a couple of reasons for this. One is that the most compelling candidate otherwise, veteran guard Bruce Brown, is walking around the Raptors practice facility at the University of Quebec at Montreal gingerly and in flip-flops, the incisions from his recent arthroscopic knee surgery still covered by tiny bandages. He’s probably not going to be ready to play until late November or early December.

It's part of a less-than-ideal start to camp where Barnes has been absent for personal reasons and Quickley has yet to scrimmage due to an injury to his left thumb.

But that doesn’t change who the Raptors' core four are. But after that? It’s slim pickings.

You could make a case for Davion Mitchell, the rugged, defence-first point guard Toronto acquired from the Sacramento Kings in the summer, but that idea is flawed for a couple of reasons, primary among them is that the Raptors have invested $175 million on Quickley to be their starting point guard.

Quickley’s shooting prowess means he can play well off the ball also, but stepping aside for Mitchell to run the point doesn’t make a lot of sense, especially if the Raptors are also in need of a competent backup point guard to run their second unit, a role Mitchell seems destined for.

But it’s best for all concerned if the starting opportunity goes to Dick. He’s the recent lottery pick whose progress will likely have a significant impact on the long-term ceiling of the group as it stands, so the sooner he gets those opportunities the better for all concerned.

And he’s done his part. The second half of Dick’s rookie season wasn’t quite good enough to earn him all-rookie honours, but it was so much better than his first half that there should be some kind of award for it. Dick averaged 11.1 points a game and shot 45.2 per cent from the floor and 39.5 per cent from three in his final 40 games in the season, compared with 3.5 points a game on 29.5 per cent shooting (including 25 per cent from three) in his first 19 appearances.

And Dick has put in work since, with Raptors assistant coaches camping in Wichita, Kansas, for weeks at a time, as well as team workouts in Las Vegas, Spain, Miami and Toronto.

How much weight he’s actually put on his still slender, 20-year-old frame is a source of team jokes

“How many pounds you gain?” Quickley yelled across to Dick during his scrum on Thursday.

“10,” Dick answered.

“It was 20 yesterday,” said Quickley. “Numbers going up and down.”

The official answer?

“It’d be around 13 (pounds) if we’re being specific,” said Dick, who was listed at 6-foot-6 and 205 pounds as a rookie. “It was right after the season, when I came back from being home. Came back and we started going full practice mode again.

I don’t know it’s such a debate (regarding how much weight he put on) … I’m bigger, that’s all it is.”

Hopefully, that means better.

Raptors head coach Darko Rajakovic says he can see signs of improvement that he attributes to the added strength and confidence that has flowed from him.

“Last year when he walked in he could barely dunk the ball,” said Rajakovic, exaggerating slightly for effect. “And now he’s playing above the rim a little bit easier, he’s not shying away from contact offensively and defensively. I think it’s going to help his overall game, feeling more confident in his body that he’s capable of doing things. He’s a big guy … he can cover multiple positions. I expect a lot from him to bring the physicality and learn to use his body because I think he’s added around 15 pounds this off-season.”

Dick should also fit with the starters relatively seamlessly on offence because he’s always been a willing cutter and mover. That, combined with his ability to shoot from distance — and the Raptors are desperate for three-point shooting after losing Trent Jr., their leading three-point shooter, in the off-season — should provide the Raptors' primary ball-handlers more room to operate and more targets to pass to.

“He's doing a much better job of recognizing the spacing, recognizing windows where he can be and then to play off of his teammates,” Rajakovic said of Dick’s off-ball movement, and added: “He's complementing our guys really well. He can space the floor really well. He runs in transition, in offence really well. And he's a very good cutter. He does not necessarily demand the ball, but when he gets the ball, he's also capable to make a play from there.”

For Dick, it’s an extension of a play style he’s had almost since he began playing basketball with his older brothers and their friends back in Wichita. There’s just a greater emphasis on it if he’s going to be the Raptors' youngest starter.

“There’s certain guys who are great cutters, it’s definitely a talent to able to know when to cut and when not to,” said Dick who ranked in the 91^st percentile among players in his role for points per possession scored off of movement and in the 82^nd percentile for off-ball gravity, per BBall Index, which is a nice combination for someone playing the role the Raptors need him to play: scoring off the move and dragging defences with him when he does.

“Really, it’s just watching film on your point guards and the guys with the ball in their hands.

At the same time, it’s playing off them, seeing where they are at on the court for you to cut and try to open the court for them,” said Dick of his approach to off-ball movement. “Most of times you’re not really cutting for your shot, you’re cutting to open up someone else’s and ultimately it will open space for you. The more movement, the better. If you’re kind of hesitating on when to cut or not, you’re a second too late.”

When it comes to earning a spot in the Raptors starting unit, however, Dick’s timing could be perfect.