Now, that was the semi-regular stinker I was expecting from the Warriors at some point during this series’ time in Dallas. I predicted it in Game 3, and we got it a game later, but it happened. It seems to happen at least once per series, when Golden State feels a little bit too confident they can handle their opponent.
Sure, the Mavericks’ shooters were scorching hot, with Dorian Finney-Smith, Reggie Bullock and Maxi Kleber combined for 12-20 from deep after combining for just nine points in Game 3. But they were also wide open, time after time.
Golden State just couldn’t be bothered. Sometimes it feels like they sandbag these elimination road games so they can clinch at home, and I’m sure it’s going to cost them eventually. But not Thursday night.
No team has ever come back from down 3-0. And that’s not about to change.
Overall record against the spread: 28-26-1
If you don’t know where I’m going with this, you haven’t been paying attention. The line is big, but I still think the Warriors have the Mavs overmatched. Golden State just came out flat in Game 4, it’s as simple as that.
The dedication to getting the rim wasn’t there, they weren’t closing out on shooters, they weren’t scrapping for every rebound and loose ball. In short, it wasn’t Golden State Warriors basketball.
Maybe the rain delay is to blame (seriously, fix your damn roof, Mark Cuban), maybe the entire team was weighed down by a delicious Tex-Mex dinner the night before, who knows. What I do know is that since blowing a 3-1 lead in the 2016 Finals to Cleveland, the Steve Kerr-Stephen Curry Warriors have lost consecutive playoff games only three times.
They’ve played 75 games over that span.
I think Golden State comes into this game at Chase Center with a renewed sense of urgency, and I like the Warriors (-7.5) to win this one and cover, as they have in all three of their wins in the series.
I also like the Warriors (-1) to win the third quarter, which pays off at -105. They’re the league’s most reliable third-quarter team, so let’s make some money there. It also feels like Jordan Poole is due, so let’s take his OVER 16.5 points, along with his OVER 1.5 threes made.
Luka Doncic has had 10 double doubles in 14 games, and he’s an absolute monster in elimination games, so I like him to get another here, a bet that pays off at -250. Let’s throw in Klay Thompson OVER 2.5 threes made as well, since we’ve yet to truly have a good Klay game this series.
The Sicko Same Game Parlay of The Night pays off at +650
· Golden State Warriors Money Line
· Luka Doncic double double – Yes
· Jordan Poole OVER 1.5 threes made
· Jordan Poole OVER 16.5 points
· Klay Thompson OVER 2.5 threes made
As always, play safe and don’t chase.