NCAA Final Four men's and women's betting guide: Looking at the best odds

Professional handicapper Bruce Marshall joins Follow The Money to preview the two Final Four matchups for Saturday, why he likes Villanova over Kansas, and why he thinks North Carolina will not only beat Duke, but has a good chance to win it all.

With your NCAA bracket already busted (likely), let’s break down the Final Four matchups in case you plan on putting down a few dollars on the men’s and women’s games this weekend. Hopefully, this piece will help you make an informed decision. 

(Editor’s note: All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction and are current as of the time of publication.)

NCAA Men’s Final Four

Outright – Winner

Duke Blue Devils (+149): It’s tough for a lot of fans to root for Duke — it’s like cheering for Bill Gates to win the lottery or Brad Pitt to be named Sexiest Man Alive — but there is a ton of sentimentally for Mike Krzyzewski to ride off into the sunset as a champion in his final season. If Coach K is going to win his sixth and final national championship, he’ll do it with his offence. The Blue Devils are currently ranked No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency in Ken Pomeroy’s College Basketball Ratings at 121.0 points per 100 possessions.

Kansas Jayhawks (+186): Sticking to the theme of Ken Pom’s rankings, the Jayhawks are the best overall team remaining in the tournament. Kansas is also in the top-20 in both adjusted offensive efficiency (7th) and defensive efficiency (18th). Bill Self’s team is a veteran-laden squad highlighted by Ochai Agbaji, a national player of the year finalist, and NBA prospect Christian Braun.

North Carolina Tar Heels (+458): The Tar Heels are back in the Final Four for the third time in the last six March Madness tournaments. North Carolina rode that emotional 94-81 victory over Duke in coach Mike Krzyzewski’s last home game all the way to the Final Four as a No. 8 seed. The Tar Heels are 10-1 overall in their last 11 games with an average margin of victory of 13.3 points.

Villanova Wildcats (+479): The Wildcats are red-hot and have won nine straight games, but the injury bug has hit Villanova hard. Standout guard Justin Moore is out indefinitely after suffering a heart-breaking Achilles injury in the final minute of their 50-44 win over Houston in the Elite Eight. Moore was the second-leading scorer for Nova, averaging 14.8 points per game.

(2) Villanova Wildcats vs. (1) Kansas Jayhawks

Saturday at 6:09 p.m. ET

POINTSPREAD

Villanova +4.0 -110         Kansas -4.0 -110

MONEYLINE

Villanova +158                 Kansas -190

OVER/UNDER

Over 133.0 -105              Under 133.0 -114

The Jayhawks and Wildcats are both riding nine-game winning streaks and have also been a bank machine against the number lately. Kansas and Villanova are each 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games.

The Wildcats, though, are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and are a sparkling 21-6 ATS in their last 27 March Madness tournament games. The Jayhawks, meanwhile, have been solid against the number by going 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.

If you’re undecided on the spread, maybe the total is what you want to consider. The under has been scorching hot when the Jayhawks and Wildcats are involved. The under is 7-3 in Kansas’ last 10 games overall and 7-3 in their last 10 games as a favourite. The total has gone under the number in six of the last seven Villanova games overall and a staggering 14-3 in their last 17 games following an against the spread win.

Pick: With Wildcats guard Moore out, and both teams being in the top-20 of Ken Pom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, I think points will be at a premium in this matchup. I know it’s not fun to root for the under but take the total of 133.0 to go UNDER at -114.

(8) North Carolina Tar Heels vs. (2) Duke Blue Devils

Saturday at 8:49 p.m. ET

POINTSPREAD

North Carolina +4.0 -101              Duke -4.0 -119

MONEYLINE

North Carolina +166                      Duke -200

OVER/UNDER

Over 151.0 -110                             Under 151.0 -110

Do you believe in revenge narratives? The Tar Heels spoiled Coach K’s final game at Cameron Indoor Stadium last month just before the tournament began with a 94-81 victory over Duke. This will also be the first time these long-time rivals will meet at March Madness.

The Blue Devils, though, have been riding the struggle bus lately when it comes to the point spread. Duke is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 NCAA tournament games as a favourite and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 NCAA tournament games overall. North Carolina, meanwhile, is a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their last four games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog.

Let’s talk the total, shall we? Unlike the opener, this game could see plenty of points with the over on a roll lately when these teams play. The over is 4-0 in Duke’s last four against a team with a winning straight-up record and 8-2 in their last 10 overall. North Carolina is 6-0 in their last six against a team with a winning straight-up record. These teams flew over the total by 22 points in their last meeting just a few weeks ago.

Pick: If you’re into storybook endings (and who isn’t), Duke is the play here. The Blue Devils have the top-ranked offence in the nation and are led by star freshman Paolo Banchero. I’ll bite on the revenge narrative here and bring Coach K one final title before he retires. I know Duke hasn’t been good against the number lately, but I’m taking the Blue Devils here -4.0 at -119.

NCAA Women’s Final Four

(1) Louisville vs. South Carolina (1)

Friday at 7:00 p.m. ET

South Carolina enters this matchup with the best record in the country at 29-2. The Gamecocks were also No. 1 overall in scoring margin this season, winning by an average of 20.6 points per game. When South Carolina shoots over 42.6 per cent from the field, they’re an absurd 20-0 this year.

The magic number for Louisville is 50. The Cardinals are a stellar 29-4 when they put up more than 50 points this season. Here’s another key number to keep your eye on if you’re live-betting this game: Louisville is a ridiculous 15-0 when going over 6.1 three-pointers made per game this season.

POINTSPREAD

Louisville +8.5 -110         South Carolina -8.5 -110

MONEYLINE

Louisville +311                 South Carolina -380

OVER/UNDER

Over 118.5 -110              Under 118.5 -110

Connecticut (2) vs Stanford (1)

Friday at 9:30 p.m. ET

Much like Louisville, Stanford has their own magic number. The Cardinals are 32-2 in games where they score over 55 points. Cameron Brink will need to carry the mail once again for Stanford. Brink leads the Cardinals in both scoring and rebounding with 13.4 points and 8.1 boards per game.

UConn has also laid some beatdowns to opponents this season. The Huskies are ranked second overall in scoring margin this season by winning by an average of 20.3 points per game. UConn is also a rock solid 28-4 when they rack up at least 57 points.

POINTSPREAD

Connecticut +1.0 -110    Stanford -1.0 -110

MONEYLINE

Connecticut +104            Stanford -125

OVER/UNDER

Over 130.5 -110              Under 130.5 -110

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