There are certain things in life that you can rely on – death, taxes and someone to let you down in fantasy football right when you need them most.
The heartbreak is real.
I personally didn’t experience any this past weekend as I was either firmly planted in the playoffs or completely out of it in all of the leagues I’m in, but I did find a few people on Twitter who were absolutely blitzed by surprisingly bad performances from usually reliable players.
We’ve all been there.
Another place we’ve all been is in a league with the guy who before the season starts is absolutely adamant that he’s going to dominate and that this season is going to be different than all the others. I’m one of the guys that usually talks smack, because why play fantasy football if you can’t dish out some jabs here and there?
My home league, which is a dynasty league, is pretty intense. The arguments have gotten heated, some have quit, but the trash-talking is relentless, and people don’t forget. One player in particular made many claims pre-season about how he had listened to a bunch of podcasts and his team was going to have different results this year. He was going to get back into the playoffs and exorcise his playoff demons.
Nope.
Because of all this pre-season smack talk, one member of the league decided to go back into the archives of our chat group and brought all of his smack talk back to life and added a corresponding GIF to everyone. It was complete savagery.
Moral of the story? People don’t forget.
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1. Put these guys on a milk carton
Picture this scenario (and for some, you can re-live it).
You’re going into the final week of the regular season and you’ve got Derrick Henry, Justin Herbert, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Miles Sanders, and in some cases, maybe you’ve got all four or three of four.
You just need one win to get into the playoffs, but a loss knocks you out.
This should be an easy win. Henry is coming off a monster performance, Herbert has been one of the most impressive rookie quarterbacks we’ve seen recently, you spent a high pick on Edwards-Helaire for games just like last week’s against the Broncos and Miles Sanders is better than David Montgomery, who just torched the Packers run defence.
Wake up. That dream is over.
What actually ended up happening was far worse than a Freddy Kreuger flick.
• Derrick Henry: 15 carries for 60 yards, one catch for nine yards and a fumble (4.9 fantasy points)
• Justin Herbert: 209 passing yards, 0 touchdowns and two interceptions (4.36 fantasy points)
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Dressed but did not play a snap
• Miles Sanders: 10 carries for 31 yards (3.1 fantasy points)
For those doing the math at home, that’s a combined total of 12.36 points. To put that into perspective, that quadruplet barely outscored Jaguars quarterback Mike Glennon, who was QB19 on the week.
2. Jets collapse impact fantasy star’s future
We’ve seen some crazy things in the history of this wonderful game. We’ve seen some incredibly amazing play calls.
Then we saw what Gregg Williams decided to do with the game on the line against the Las Vegas Raiders. It was so egregious that it ended up costing him his job.
That play also changed the future of a potential fantasy star.
There was a chance that Trevor Lawrence could end up somewhere else other than New York and for as much as a tire-fire as Jacksonville has been, it looks like they have better pieces in place for his success.
But no, the play call that will live in infamy all but surely solidified that Lawrence will be drafted by the Jets.
Imagine that one’s future could be decided by a play-call like this.
This play probably won a week for plenty of people out there as it vaulted Derek Carr into the QB1 slot and Henry Ruggs finished as a WR2.
My guess is that Lawrence and some fantasy managers are hoping that Michael J. Fox and Christopher Lloyd can change a couple of things from this past week in the next Back to the Future movie.
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3. Hurts So Good
Let’s get this out of the way right now: Doug Pederson didn’t have a choice but to name Jalen Hurts the starting quarterback in Philadelphia.
Carson Wentz hasn’t been good this season – that’s been very apparent – but when Hurts took over at the helm, it felt like the team got a bit of a boost.
Hurts found Greg Ward for a 32-yard touchdown on fourth down in the final quarter, which gave the Eagles a bit of life, only to throw an interception to finish the night off.
What we saw from Hurts, however, was not unexpected.
He made some great runs and kept plays alive with his legs, but he also made errant throws that might have even been turnover-worthy. Hurts is starting, and there’s going to be a learning curve like there is with every young quarterback.
What does that mean for fantasy purposes at the Eagles’ quarterback position? Go out and add Jalen Hurts.
We’ve seen what running quarterbacks can do for fantasy purposes and Hurts fits that bill. In relief, he had five rushes for 29 yards and still managed to throw for 109 yards on five completions. All things being equal, that’s not so bad.
The schedule is tough this upcoming week with the Saints but opens up a bit with the Cardinals and the Cowboys to follow. It’s worth keeping a close eye on Hurts because with him as the starter in Philadelphia, he may prove to be a solid streaming option at the end of this season.
4. Let Russ… simmer?
Russell Wilson had one of the greatest starts to a season for a quarterback of all-time. I mean, we were talking about him throwing 70 touchdown passes this year (as a joke, of course). All kidding aside, with the start Wilson had, 50 touchdown passes was not out of the question.
But things have not gone his way lately. Let’s take a look at his splits from his incredible start to his recent struggles.
• Weeks 1-8: 307.3 yards, 3.7 touchdowns and 0.9 interceptions per game (QB1 – 30.29 PPG)
• Weeks 9-13: 265.6 yards, 1.2 touchdowns and 1 interception per game (QB15 – 17.3 PPG)
This is a mind-blowing drop-off for such an elite quarterback. Nothing really seems to make sense here, especially seeing that his attempts per game has not fallen to some unspeakable number or that his completions are way down. He’s averaging around two fewer completions and fewer than one attempt per game since Week 9.
What’s the biggest difference? The touchdown numbers aren’t nearly as gaudy as they were at the beginning of the season.
Let’s look at Wilson’s red-zone passing usage.
Weeks 1-8:
• Inside the 20: 6.4 attempts
• Inside the 10: 3.9 attempts
• Inside the 5: 1.9 attempts
Weeks 9-13:
• Inside the 20: 4.2 attempts
• Inside the 10: 1.8 attempts
• Inside the 5: 0.8 attempts
The offence is struggling, but it also seems like they’re letting Russ “cook” a little bit less down the stretch, which is a tad mind-boggling considering that their best running back, Chris Carson, has missed time with injury.
Wilson and the offence get a boost this upcoming week against the Jets, but it doesn’t get any easier with the Washington Football Team and L.A. Rams on the horizon.
Safe to say that Chef Russ has been more of a short-order cook in the second half of the season.
5. Taysom Hill saves fantasy seasons
I was skeptical about Taysom Hill as a full-time quarterback to say the least, as I think many others were. Can you blame us?
There was always the chance Hill was going to be a good fantasy asset once he was named the starter after Drew Brees’ injury because of his ability to run the ball, but I can’t say that many predicted this kind of production.
In the three weeks following Brees’ injury, Hill has two 200-plus yard passing games, two touchdown passes, four rushing touchdowns and only one interception – good for the QB6 spot during that time.
These are numbers that will win weeks for players.
New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (7) carries past Atlanta Falcons free safety Ricardo Allen (37), defensive end Steven Means (55) and defensive end Charles Harris (92) in New Orleans, Sunday, Nov. 22, 2020. (Butch Dill/AP)
Now, you can point to the schedule with two games against Atlanta and one against a Broncos team that might as well have had me as the quarterback, but he still produced. With the Eagles, Chiefs and Vikings on the horizon in the fantasy playoffs, Hill will likely continue his fantasy output until Brees returns.
I was really expecting a Tim Tebow-esque type quarterback when Hill took over, but even the biggest opposer of his can’t argue with the success he’s had from a fantasy perspective thus far.
6. Mr. Reliable resides in Buffalo
There’s something to be said about having a career-year when you’re north of 30, but that’s what we’re seeing with Cole Beasley in Buffalo.
This past week, he shredded the 49ers for nine catches for 130 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets, giving him 66 catches for 797 yards and four touchdowns on the season, all while inching closer and closer to his best season to date.
He needs just nine catches, 36 yards and three touchdowns to beat his best totals and could even reach the 1,000-yard plateau for the first time in his career.
Beasley has at least six targets in eight games and double-digit targets in three games this year and has become Josh Allen’s security blanket underneath. All he does is make big catches for this offence.
How good has Beasley been in Buffalo compared to his previous stint in Dallas? He has six 100-yard receiving games in his last 16 games in Buffalo and had only two in 103 games in Dallas.
Beasley is also WR19 in both standard and PPR scoring, which may come to a surprise to many, but the consistency that he has shown in addition to different injuries to John Brown, has been a breath of fresh air to this organization, which has had a history of ineptitude on the offensive side of the ball.
7. What happened to Kyler Murray’s legs?
One of the things that made Kyler Murray such an incredible fantasy asset was his ability to run the ball. It was like having free points every week because his rushing floor was so high.
Over the last three weeks, that hasn’t been the case and it’s hurting your fantasy team.
Through Weeks 1-10, Murray averaged 67.1 rushing yards and 1.1 touchdowns on the ground but over the last three weeks, he has averaged only 20.3 rushing yards per game and has no touchdowns.
This, along with averaging just over 204 passing yards, 1.7 touchdowns and 0.7 interceptions per game through the air has Murray as QB16 in that stretch.
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) runs as Buffalo Bills defensive end Mario Addison (97) defends. (Ross D. Franklin/AP)
The Cardinals could be very worried about Murray re-injuring his shoulder and have cut down on his rushing, especially near the goal line, which was a huge factor in his 10 rushing touchdowns.
As a fantasy manager, this really couldn’t have come at a worse time with the playoffs on the horizon, especially considering that there are some tougher matchups for Murray and the Cardinals in the next three weeks.
With the Giants, Eagles and 49ers on the docket, you may want to check out the waiver wire to see if someone catches your eye.
8. Goff a possible under-the-radar playoff darling?
It feels like Jared Goff’s remarkable 2018 season happened about 10 years ago and like that was the last time we were able to really trust him.
But as we reach the fantasy playoffs, Goff is in a good position to be a solid start in redraft leagues and could put up some good numbers to help you win a championship.
This past week against the Cardinals, he threw for 351 yards and a touchdown and added one rushing score – good enough for a QB1 finish.
His remaining schedule pits Goff against the Patriots, Jets and Seahawks, with the latter two in the top five in points allowed per game to the quarterback position.
Over his last five games, he has averaged 316.4 yards and one touchdown against decent-to-good defences. You would anticipate that the touchdown numbers should increase in some potentially high-scoring games over this stretch, but if you’re in a situation where you have a better streaming option in the first week of the playoffs, you might just be able to ride Jared Goff in the semis and final.
9. A changing of the guard
Remember when Chicago either signed, traded for or drafted about a million tight ends this off-season? I know, it feels like it happened three years ago.
Jimmy Graham was the guy coming into the season and likely was going to be the tight end who dominated snaps for this season, especially considering the learning curve for rookie tight ends in the NFL.
What wasn’t expected is what has happened over the last three games for the Bears at that position.
Here are the weekly snap share percentages:
Jimmy Graham
• Week 10: 58 per cent
• Week 12: 35 per cent
• Week 13: 49 per cent
Cole Kmet
• Week 10: 70 per cent
• Week 12: 79 per cent
• Week 13: 78 per cent
A second-round pick out of Notre Dame, Kmet has enjoyed limited success in the passing game aside from a couple of weeks here and there including this past week, but he’s going to see the field more.
What’s important is the opportunity that Kmet could be walking into in Chicago’s offence.
Graham is fifth in the NFL in red-zone targets with 15, sitting only behind only Davante Adams, Darren Waller, Mike Evans and Calvin Ridley. That’s some pretty good company.
Kmet is nearly as big as Graham, standing at six-foot-six and weighing 262 pounds (Graham is six-foot-seven and 265 pounds), and at this point in both of their careers they probably run a similar 40-yard dash time.
This is an excellent opportunity for Kmet down the stretch with matchups against Houston (15th in points per game vs. tight ends), Minnesota (21st in points per game vs. tight ends) and Jacksonville (2nd in points per game vs. tight ends).
Kmet is a player you should definitely keep your eye on heading into next season, especially in dynasty leagues where he will be undervalued after a slow rookie season and could be a great piece to add in a bigger deal as a “throw in.”
10. The Weekly “Mike Tolbert Vulture Awards”
What a week to have the vultures make an impact – right before the playoffs.
Imagine how many people lost their weeks because of an A.J. Brown fumble that was recovered by another Titan and then scored?
Here are this week’s winners.
• MyCole Pruitt wasn’t supposed to be the tight-end touchdown scorer for the Titans this week – it was supposed to be Anthony Firkser – but this is 2020 and things are beyond weird. Pruitt caught his lone pass for 22 yards for a touchdown, but also recovered A.J. Brown’s fumble at the three-yard line and pushed it across for a score. The ultimate vulture weekend.
• Kendall Lamm is a name that you’ve likely never heard before because he’s an offensive lineman for the Cleveland Browns, but now you know of him as another linemen with the perfect receiving line of one catch for one yard and a touchdown. I’m positive that no one needed a Kareem Hunt score to help push them across the line and into the playoffs.
• Jesse James did his best T.J. Hockenson impression on his one catch for nine yards by scoring on it. In a week where so many playoff spots were up for grabs, this one has to sting Hockenson managers. The Lions seem to always find a way to break our hearts.
• C.J. Ham is a pretty good fullback for the Minnesota Vikings. You know what else he can be? A pretty good vulture for Dalvin Cook. The fifth-year player scored his second receiving touchdown of his career on a 12-yard pass from Kirk Cousins. Cook was held out of the endz one, in case you were wondering.
• Alfred Morris was once a very reliable running back during his time in Washington, but no one was starting him this past week. He turned eight rushes into 39 yards and a touchdown and also added one catch for six yards and a touchdown, vulturing Wayne Gallman, who had scored in his previous five contests.
Don’t forget to check out Matt’s “Love ‘Em, Leave ‘Em” picks for the weekend games on Twitter @MattSN590 every Friday.
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