Through the first four weeks of the season, we’ve seen some things — some good, some concerning, and some just absolutely wild.
At this point, we also have a pretty good idea of which players we were right — and wrong — about. We all know that manager that comes into the season all bombastic about how great their team is and how they’re going to win the league because they’ve got studs and so much depth. Mark their words: It’s their year, they say.
And then, reality hits.
Hey, I’ve been there. I’ve been that manager. But not this time.
It really does feel good when you’re not that manager, that’s for sure. Some leagues have seen teams already declaring defeat after just four weeks. (Full disclosure, I’ll likely get a bye in the first round of the playoffs and lose in the semis like I have the last three years. The pain is real.)
*All weekly rankings courtesy of Fantasy Data
1. Panthers’ Moore enters realm of the elite
For anyone listening, I’ve been spouting the virtues of rostering D.J. Moore wherever possible. There’s never been any question about his ability to make plays, but the problem has been his inability to get into the end zone. His career-high in touchdowns before this season was four.
Yes, just four.
His other numbers, aside from TDs, are absolutely elite. He’s averaged 76.5 catches for 1,184 yards over the last two seasons with a broken Cam Newton, Kyle Allen, Will Grier and Teddy Bridgewater throwing him the ball.
People got hung up on the lack of touchdowns — which I may remind you, is a fluke stat. If Moore had between seven and nine touchdowns in each of the past two years, we would be talking about him as a top-five receiver. He’s off to an incredible start in 2021 with 30 catches for 398 yards and three touchdowns with Sam Darnold at the helm and has been far-and-away the Panthers’ best receiver. He’s really separated himself from Robby Anderson, whose fall from grace has been incredibly puzzling.
Moore is the real deal. Get used to it.
2. Deebo Samuel, the alpha
I really wasn’t sure which San Francisco wide receiver would take over as the top target behind George Kittle. Turns out, it’s Kittle who’s playing second fiddle.
Deebo Samuel has been absolutely outstanding through the first four games of the season, despite average to below-average quarterback play. He has registered at least six catches and 93 yards in three of his four matchups, and at least 156 yards in two of those games.
Last season was an injury-plagued year following a solid rookie season, so it was hard to figure out how he would fit into the offence — especially after Brandon Aiyuk’s great rookie campaign.
He’s left Aiyuk in the dust. He has taken over as the alpha in this group of pass catchers and has really taken the next step in his development.
We talk a lot about consistency and opportunity in fantasy circles and Samuel has had both. With at least eight targets in each of the first four games of 2021, it really looks like he has become a focal point of an offence that might not be able to rely on the running game as much as they would like to.
3. Dalton Schultz is the real deal
All the talk about Dallas’s offence this off-season was about how the receivers were going to get back to a productive level with Dak Prescott’s return from injury. Some even talked about Blake Jarwin regaining his status as the team’s top tight end.
Almost nobody was talking about Dalton Schultz.
The guy with the higher draft capital? The one who had been very good in the absence of Jarwin last year?
Yes, that guy.
Through four games, Schultz is firmly entrenched in the upper echelon of the fantasy tight end conversation with 20 catches for 201 yards and three touchdowns. He hasn’t been used a ton in the red zone but does have the second-most red zone targets on the Cowboys (three) and has turned them into 26 yards and two touchdowns.
His 86.9 catch percentage ranks him sixth in the NFL, and paired with that consistency has been his ability to get open — according to NFL Next Gen Stats, he is the 11th best separator. At this point, don’t you have to start him until Michael Gallup comes back from injury?
4. Edmonds vs. Conner: How about both?
There was much debate about which Cardinals running back you should be drafting considering their close ADPs this off-season. I, for one, was on team Chase Edmonds over James Conner as the latter just hasn’t been able to stay healthy in his career. Edmonds offered the better value in PPR scoring because of his pass-catching prowess, but Conner has proven he can provide great value around the goal line and late in games to help run out the clock.
Who would have thought that you could have started both backs the first four games of the season?
Edmonds has been playing at a back-end RB1, high-end RB2 level and has been used a lot in the passing game with a 17 per cent target share and at least four targets and four catches in each of the first four games.
Conner, on the other hand, has outscored the likes of Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders, Damien Harris and Myles Gaskin, all of whom had higher ADPs. His 14 red zone carries ranks him fifth behind Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor.
Arizona’s offence is clicking at an incredible rate, providing both backs with excellent opportunities that complement their respective skillsets. Maybe head coach Kliff Kingsbury has finally lived up to the hype of the offensive genius we’ve been waiting to see since he came into the league.
5. Just unleash the rookie Konami Code QBs, please?
Football is supposed to be fun. Football is supposed to provide entertainment.
You know who isn’t fun and isn’t entertaining? Andy Dalton and Jimmy Garoppolo.
This past weekend, we saw all five first-round rookie quarterbacks get meaningful snaps. Two of those QBs aren’t guaranteed to start in the coming weeks — and they just happen to be the two most exciting signal-callers of the group.
Bears head coach Matt Nagy has failed Justin Fields with his play selection and scheming, while also not showing enough confidence in the rookie to name him the starter over Dalton when the veteran returns.
49ers coach Kyle Shanahan continues to roll out forever-game-manager Garoppolo despite have a real playmaker at his disposal in Trey Lance, whose only significant action came in Week 4 because of an injury.
Fields completed 11 of 17 passes for 209 yards with no touchdowns and one interception in Sunday’s win over Detroit. (Yes, he threw for 209 yards on only 11 completions. Yes, you read that correctly.) He also only ran the ball three times. THREE TIMES! One of the better athletes that we’ve seen at the quarterback position with a great ability to make defenders miss was only able to carry the ball three times. Can’t make this stuff up.
Lance, meanwhile, was called into action against Seattle following a calf injury to Garoppolo. Lance completed half of his passes (nine of 18) for 157 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing seven times for 41 yards. He did look a little lost at times during the game, but showed his elusiveness more often than not.
If these quarterbacks don’t become fantasy-relevant before the season is done, it certainly won’t be because of a lack of talent but rather a lack of intelligent coaching and meaningful playing time.
6. Scary Terry continues to haunt defenders
Many thought this would be the season McLaurin pushed himself into the elite wide receiver category now that he’d have a gunslinger like Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing him the ball.
About that…
Taylor Heinicke has been just fine for McLaurin’s output from a fantasy perspective, but the injury-induced quarterback change further proves McLaurin’s status as “QB-proof” considering, as we know, Heinicke is no Joe Montana.
Scary Terry has been consistent this year with at least 62 receiving yards in each of his four games so far. Aside from Week 1, when he was targeted just four times, he has at least seven targets in each of his last three games with double-digit targets in the last two.
We can always ask the question of “what would he do with an elite quarterback?” but McLaurin has proven to us that he’s so good it might not even matter.
7. The reliables
There are always players we can count on that no one else seems to appreciate, as indicated by their ADPs. They don’t do anything flashy but they do produce each and every week. Case in point:
Tyler Boyd: Every year, he’s disrespected by his ADP and every year he seems to produce at a reasonably high level. Through four games this year, Boyd sits at WR26 and only has one touchdown. His numbers may be slightly inflated by Tee Higgins not being in the lineup, but he has a pretty good floor and Joe Burrow has good history with slot receivers going back to his record-breaking year at LSU.
Cole Beasley: The off-field stuff aside, Beasley has performed well since coming to Buffalo and even before that was a productive slot receiver in Dallas. He currently sits as the WR40 and has been a viable flex play all season as the safety blanket for Josh Allen and is a pretty safe starter week in and week out considering the Bills throw the ball almost 40 times per game.
Brandin Cooks: I wrote about Cooks last week and while yes, he had a rough game against the Bills, he’s still ranked WR9 in fantasy and been incredibly reliable as the only real threat in Houston. Cooks is another one of those under-the-radar “QB-proof” receivers that continuously gets the job done. At worst, he’s going to finish as a WR3 but probably will be a back-end WR2 and you should be happy with it.
8. The Ultimate Swiss Army Knife is now fantasy relevant… but be careful
Cordarrelle Patterson has been used everywhere since he entered the league – as a kick returner, punt returner, wide receiver and now running back. And he’s been pretty good at that last part this year.
Who would have thought that at this point in the year, Patterson would be the RB3 overall? With his dual-position eligibility in fantasy leagues, it makes him a great asset to have.
But buyers beware…
Among the top 24 running backs, the only other player with fewer touches than Patterson (49) is Kenneth Gainwell and he’s the RB24 with 32 touches. What I’m getting at here is that Patterson has been incredibly efficient with limited touches. That could change if Mike Davis continues to be below average and Atlanta’s defence continues to hemorrhage points, but this might just be the time to sell high on his value.
9. Have the Bills found their missing links?
There has been much debate about the Buffalo Bills’ offence and what was really needed to take them to the next level this season. Was it the running game? A viable tight end?
How about both?
It’s been a point of contention for the front office to fill those roles to make this offence more well-rounded, but they ended up figuring it out internally and from a fantasy perspective that has provided some cheap and relevant players for your teams.
Dawson Knox: Tight ends usually take time to develop at the NFL level and Knox was certainly no exception. Through the first two years of his career he’s struggled with drops (some of which were incredibly egregious) but has really settled into his role as the team’s top tight end and has the fantasy numbers to prove it. Knox has managed to climb the ladder and currently sits as the TE6 on the season through four weeks.
There are, however, some alarming numbers to consider here — like the fact that he has the fewest receiving yards among top-10 fantasy tight ends but is tied for the positional lead in touchdowns with four. But as long as the Bills’ offence keeps clicking and getting into the red zone, he’s a threat to score almost every week.
Zack Moss: Alarm bells sounded when Sean McDermott made Moss a healthy scratch in Week 1 against the Steelers, but it turns out he actually wasn’t all that healthy by the sounds of it.
Since being scratched, Moss has had great success for the Bills, especially in the red zone. He has scored four total touchdowns (three rushing and one receiving) and has the 13th best points-per-game among running backs. Is he a bit touchdown-dependent? Sure. But he’s received nine carries inside the 10 yard line (tied for third most) and has been very productive with them.
Much like Knox, if the Bills’ offence keeps moving the ball the way they have been and getting into the red zone, Moss is a very good candidate to get into the end zone at least a dozen times.
Devin Singletary: Most will shake their head at me bringing up Singletary here, but he hasn’t been all that terrible to start the year and in actuality, he’s been fairly productive. He’s 10th in the league in rushing with 259 yards, ahead of the likes of Saquon Barkley, Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams and Chris Carson just to name a few. He’s also been efficient, averaging 5.3 yards per carry.
The Bills don’t use their backs a ton in the passing game (only 17 targets through four games), but the passing game has really opened up the running game to be more efficient and Singletary, like Moss, is a benefactor. He sits as the RB32 on the year and is a bit more of a boom-or-bust option considering his lack of touchdown upside, but he’s outscoring the likes of Miles Sanders, Javonte Williams, Myles Gaskin and Damien Harris.
Imagine that: two potentially viable Buffalo running backs. (My Bills Mafia fandom approves this message.)
10. The weekly “Mike Tolbert Vulture Awards”
Donald Parham: Parham is a massive human being, standing at six-foot-eight. He should be featured more on this list but, needless to say, was effective Monday night. One of his two catches Monday got him into the end zone for a four-yard Chargers score.
Cameron Batson: Titans players seem to find their way onto this list a lot so far this season, but at least this week there was some rhyme and reason for it with A.J. Brown and Julio Jones both missing Sunday’s game against the Jets. Batson had four targets on the day, but turned his only catch into a two-yard touchdown.
Jody Fortson: I have a lot of teams with Travis Kelce on them, for obvious reasons. You can imagine my (and many others’) chagrin seeing Fortson make this list for the second straight week. This time, he turned his only target into a two-yard score. Any chance we could let Patrick Mahomes know that Kelce can, in fact, catch the football from two yards out?
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