AFC East 2020 NFL Preview: Is this the year Bills overtake Patriots?

Andy Gresh joins Follow The Money to discuss the New England Patriots with a fresh and healthy Cam Newton now at the helm, and whether they can once again win the division.

The NFL is back, and Sportsnet is breaking down everything you need to know about each of the 32 teams in the lead-up to kickoff on Thursday, Sept. 10.

Today, we look at the AFC East. (Teams are listed in the order in which we believe they’ll finish in the 2020 standings.)

BUFFALO BILLS

2019 finish: 10-6, lost in wild-card round thriller vs. Texans

The good news: Timing. Just as the Tom Brady era ends in New England, the Bills will field what is, on paper, the franchise’s best team since the turn of the millennium. Already sporting a top-five defence, GM Brandon Beane has built an offence around third-year quarterback Josh Allen that has the potential to be top-10. Leading those players is a proven top-tier head coach in Sean McDermott, who has shown time and time again he can get the most out of his players.

While Bills fans obviously would’ve loved to have been more competitive during Brady’s run in New England, the AFC East torch is now theirs for the taking – all they need to do is reach out and grab it.

The bad news: Bill Belichick is still in the AFC East. The loss of Brady is obviously a game-changer for Buffalo as the GOAT went 32-3 against the Bills during his time in New England. Unfortunately, the best coach of all time is still in New England. And while the Patriots have their fair share of roster troubles to deal with — even beyond Brady’s departure — Buffalo and the rest of the AFC East know better than to count their chickens before they hatch with Belichick still roaming the opposite sideline in his sleeveless hoodie.

2020 opt-outs: E.J. Gaines, CB; Star Lotulelei, DT

Your new favourite player: Stefon Diggs. John Brown and Cole Beasley were true difference-makers for the Bills’ offence last season, giving Allen the weapons he’d sorely lacked during his rookie year, but the offence was still missing a true No. 1 receiver. Enter Diggs. One of the league’s best route runners with a flair for the dramatic, Diggs immediately gives Allen a go-to option, and his mere presence will open things up even more for Brown and Beasley.

Player you’ll miss most: Frank Gore. After featuring more heavily than expected in the first half of last season, Gore’s usage was way down over the final stretch of the 2019 campaign. But don’t discount the future Hall of Famer’s impact in the locker room and leadership on what was a young team last year. The Bills really didn’t lose many impactful players in the off-season, but Gore’s off-field presence could be a tough void to fill.

Game you should be most excited about: vs. Patriots, Sunday, Nov. 1. If the tide is truly changing in the AFC East, the Bills have to beat New England. This game will be their first chance to do that in 2020. It’s a true shame there won’t be fans at Bills Stadium to see it.

Game you should be least excited about: @ Cardinals, Sunday, Nov. 15. Buffalo has a late bye – Week 11 – and a trip to Arizona after a long stretch of games to start the season could spell bad news for the Bills.

2020 season prediction: 11-5, division champions for the first time since 1995.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

2019 finish: 12-4, lost in divisional round

The good news: While one half of the Patriots’ Hall of Fame duo is now in Tampa Bay, the other — and the more important — half remains. As noted above – and, really, this can’t be ignored in any conversation about the 2020 AFC East this year – Tom Brady is gone, and he’s impossible to replace. But Bill Belichick remains in New England, and if any coach can overcome the tidal wave of change this team has seen over the last few months, it’s the six-time Super Bowl-winning coach.

The bad news: New England’s roster turnover has been immense. Big losses in free agency on both sides of the ball and more COVID-19 opt-outs than any other team (including two of their best players in Dont’a Hightower and Marcus Cannon) means Belichick faces his toughest test since 2008 when Brady tore his ACL in the first game of the season. (Reminder: that Matt Cassel-led team went 11-5.)

2020 opt-outs: Matt LaCosse, TE; Marqise Lee, WR; Patrick Chung, S; Dont’a Hightower, LB; Brandon Bolden, RB; Marcus Cannon, OT; Danny Vitale, FB; Najee Toran, OL.

Your new favourite player: Cam Newton. By no means does anyone expect the 31-year-old to return to the form that made him MVP in 2015. Injuries have hampered Newton too much since that season to expect him to be Superman. But the idea of Newton being coached by Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is an enticing one, and you can be sure we’ll see some really interesting offence being played by this team if Newton stays healthy.

Plus, the guy just brings an energy that is undeniably contagious.

Player you’ll miss most: Tom Brady. Six-time Super Bowl champion. Three-time NFL MVP. Nothing more needs to be said.

Game you should be most excited about: @ Kansas City, Sunday, Oct. 4. Colleague Craig Battle pointed to this game as the one Chiefs fans should be least excited about this season, and it’s tough to disagree with that. On the road against the defending Super Bowl champions as what we assume will be a huge underdog… Book it: Belichick will put on a coaching clinic in this game.

Game you should be least excited about: @ Dolphins, Sunday, Dec. 20. Weird things happen to the Patriots in Miami in December – Remember this? Oh, and also this? This year’s trip to South Beach comes at the end of a brutal stretch where New England plays four of five games on the road.

2020 season prediction: 8-8, just misses out on third wild-card spot (we immediately regret this prediction).

MIAMI DOLPHINS

2019 finish: 5-11, missed playoffs

The good news: Brian Flores, one of the most promising young head coaches in the NFL, enters Year 2 after leading a team that some thought would go 0-16 to five wins in 2019 — three of which came in their last five games. The Dolphins still have a ways to go before we’ll consider them division-title contenders, but if they hit on their big-name free-agent signings and a couple of their six top-70 draft picks are able to contribute in meaningful ways, Flores could coach this team to seven or eight wins.

The bad news: This is still very much a team in rebuild mode. Veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting the season under centre ahead of top draft pick Tua Tagovailoa; behind wide receiver DaVante Parker is a gaping chasm on the Dolphins’ depth chart after both Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns opted out; and the offensive line, currently slated to start a pair of rookies, will undoubtedly go through some growing pains.

2020 opt-outs: Albert Wilson, WR; Allen Hurns, WR.

Your new favourite player: Tua Tagovailoa. Free-agent signings Byron Jones and Kyle Van Noy were big additions in Miami, but the rookie signal-caller should have ‘Phins fans doing front flips. It could be a couple of months before the No. 5 overall pick sees his first NFL action, but the Dolphins have a great, young franchise cornerstone in the former Alabama pivot.

Player you’ll miss most: Albert Wilson. The Dolphins didn’t lose much in the off-season, but Wilson exercising his right to opt out means Miami will miss one of its most dynamic playmakers for 2020.

Game you should be most excited about: @ Jaguars, Thursday, Sept. 24. A Thursday night clash against state rivals who appear to be in the midst of a full-blown tear-down gives the Dolphins a chance to show a national audience they’re taking the next steps toward success.

Game you should be least excited about: @ Bills, Sunday, Jan. 3. Buffalo + January = Cold. Not a great equation for Miami against a team with big post-season aspirations.

2020 season prediction: 7-9, and a lot more competitive than they should be thanks to great coaching.

NEW YORK JETS

2019 finish: 7-9, missed playoffs

The good news: Sam Darnold “looks a lot different,” according to teammate Le’Veon Bell – and in a good way. Two seasons after being selected with the third overall pick, we’ve seen flashes of Darnold’s potential but he hasn’t exactly built on it. There’s some chatter out of Jets training camp that Darnold looks like he’s ready to take the next step, and that has to happen if the Jets are going to be relevant in 2020.

“He’s a lot more comfortable,” Bell said of Darnold on Aug. 24. “Sam looks amazing this year. It’s going to be fun.”

Of course, you’d be smart to take that with a grain of salt – what else is Bell going to say? But in a year where there’s very little information coming out of camps, and one in which expectations around the Jets are low again, the possibility Darnold could be on the verge of a breakout should be enough to get fans of Gang Green excited.

The bad news: There’s still plenty of skepticism around head coach Adam Gase. The hiring of Gase has always been highly criticized in New York, and the latest very public miscommunication with his star running back puts the spotlight back on the coach’s player management. While the jury is still out on Gase as an NFL head coach, it feels like another lacklustre year in New York could spell the end of his time there.

2020 opt-outs: Josh Doctson, WR; C.J. Mosley, LB; Leo Koloamatangi, OL.

Your new favourite player: Mekhi Becton. Jets GM Joe Douglas focused on an overhaul of the team’s offensive line this off-season, and that included using their first-round pick on the behemoth left tackle. Listed at six-foot-seven and 365 pounds, Becton has been garnering hype as the season draws closer and could become a “scary sight” for opposing defensive lines.

Oh, and did we mention he’s HUGE:

Player you’ll miss most: Jamal Adams. We thought about going with the opt-out of C.J. Mosley, but the star linebacker only played one half of football last season so Jets fans already know what it’s like to miss him. The disgruntled Adams was traded to the Seattle Seahawks in late July for a package that includes a pair of first-round picks. Long-term, we’d be willing to bet this trade works out better for the Jets, but in the short-term it is a huge blow to New York’s defence, especially when combined with Mosley’s year off.

Game you should be most excited about: vs. Patriots, Monday, Nov. 9. The Jets’ only scheduled prime-time game of 2020 is on Monday Night Football against the Patriots. Sure, New York has not fared well recently against New England – Belichick has won 11 of his last 12 games against the Jets – but it’s always fun to see your team on prime time.

Game you should be least excited about: @ Seahawks, Sunday, Dec. 13. Jamal Adams, who did not leave the Jets on the greatest of terms, faces his former team for the first time. This just feels like it’s bound to go very badly for the Jets.

2020 season prediction: 4-12, and searching for a new head coach in January.

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