The NFL’s Wild Card Weekend is here, and with it comes a trio of AFC showdowns with some pretty intriguing matchups.
This year’s AFC playoff picture looks pretty different than the one we saw last year, with four of the seven clubs representing the conference having missed the cut last season. Of the six quarterbacks hitting the field in the AFC this weekend, four are making playoff debuts.
Watching all the action and awaiting their first playoff opponent will be the Kansas City Chiefs, the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Following the Jacksonville Jaguars' stunning 31-30 comeback win over the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday, here’s a preview of the two remaining AFC Wild Card matchups to come.
No. 7 DOLPHINS (9-8) @ No. 2 BILLS (13-3) | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
How the Dolphins got here: After starting the season hot, the Dolphins have struggled to stay that way. Ultimately, their playoff berth came down to the final day of the regular season. A low-scoring win against the Jets without Tua Tagovailoa saw them sneak in with the seventh seed.
How the Bills got here: The Bills have endured some of the toughest hurdles a team can face, including most recently the health scare to safety Damar Hamlin that brought the league to a halt earlier this month. Despite that, Buffalo’s dominance on the field has rarely wavered. A mid-season blip as Josh Allen worked through an injury wasn’t enough to stop them from finishing atop the AFC East for the third straight season.
Storyline to watch: With Tua out, do the Dolphins stand a chance in Buffalo?
With starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa at the helm, the Dolphins have one of the most explosive offences in the league. Without him, they still boast the top receiving duo out there – just without a proven arm to get them the ball. It’s worth noting, of course, that Skylar Thompson, third-stringer-turned-starter and one of two 2022 seventh rounders to start a playoff game this January, has played most of his snaps against the Jets’ mighty defence, who can shut down even the best talents, so perhaps our expectations are a little too low heading into his second career NFL start. Hurting the Dolphins even more is that the team will be without leading rusher Raheem Mostert, who had his best outing of the season against the Bills in Week 15. Looks like this once-hot offence could be left in the cold.
Matchup to watch: Josh Allen vs. Miami’s defence
While all eyes are on whether Miami’s offence can find a spark with Thompson, the fate of the Dolphins ultimately lies on whether their defence can make a big play or two. They’ve struggled to keep Josh Allen in check this season – this year alone, Allen has completed 67 passes for 704 yards and six touchdowns against the Dolphins. In those same games, though, he’s also been sacked six times and fumbled five – including twice for a loss. Miami’s not likely to contain him, but if they can keep the pressure on and capitalize on a big play for a defensive score, they’ve got a shot at matching him.
No. 6 RAVENS (10-7) @ No. 3 BENGALS (12-4) | Sunday 8:15 p.m. ET
How the Ravens got here: While the Bengals sprinted into the post-season, the Ravens have stumbled, reeling from the loss of Lamar Jackson on Dec. 4. Baltimore won just two of their final five games without Jackson, and failed to crack 20 points in any of those games. It was Cincinnati who ultimately helped secure the unravelling Ravens a playoff spot in Week 16 with their win over New England, though there’s no love lost here. Cincinnati also delivered Baltimore their final loss of the season last week to set up a third and final meeting.
How the Bengals got here: Winless in their first three divisional matchups, the Bengals’ Halloween-night loss to the Browns brought them to 4-4 on the season. Last year’s Super Bowl runners-up have been a frightful sight for opponents ever since, running the table with an eight-game win streak (including a trio of divisional revenge games). They clinched a playoff spot in Week 16 and were awarded the AFC North a week later.
Storyline to watch: Is this the end of the Lamar Jackson era in Baltimore?
First, it was Lamar Jackson. Then, last week, Anthony Brown. Now, if backup Tyler Huntley is, in fact, the starter for Sunday night’s bout against the Bengals, Cincinnati will have faced all three QBs on Baltimore’s depth chart in three battles this season. Even though Jackson, who’s still dealing with the PCL injury he suffered Dec. 4, has been ruled out of this bout, he’ll still be the biggest story in Baltimore. Jackson is due a new deal, his contract status still unresolved, with speculation growing by the day that his time with the Ravens could be done.
Matchup to watch: Burrow vs. Ravens’ pass coverage
While a major storyline in Cincinnati should be the state of its offensive line after some key injuries there (déjà vu for Burrow), Baltimore has actually found more success against Cincinnati when not pressuring Burrow. You need only look at last week’s season finale between these divisional foes for a glimpse of how Baltimore might approach its defensive strategy. In the second half of Week 18’s game, the Ravens locked down Burrow’s best offensive weapons, focusing their efforts on man coverage downfield in an effort to eliminate those big-air plays. Baltimore’s defence, after starting off the season with some second-half breakdowns, has been dialled in the second half of their season. With the offence not at its best, they will need to make all the difference.
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