The NFL season always begins with the same illusion of certainty: a tidal wave of projections, predictions and power rankings that aim to define the league before a single snap.
All that gets thrown out the window once the games begin. That’s what makes the NFL so compelling: one summer’s rebuild can turn into an autumn contender, and a player once written off can suddenly find himself in the MVP conversation.
Heading into Week 8, a handful of teams have gotten off to surprising starts. Some are clubs that were not supposed to be here — whether at the top of their divisions, in the thick of the playoff hunt, or in some cases, leading the entire league.
Then there are teams with the talent and experience to compete, but have failed to meet expectations thus far.
As we near the midway point of the season, we’re looking at some of the NFL’s biggest overachievers — the teams defying the odds and shaking up the season — and underachievers that haven’t reached their potential.
Overachiever: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Despite winning the NFC South the last four seasons since Tom Brady guided them to the Super Bowl, Tampa Bay hasn’t been able to get past the Divisional Round. An aging core brought questions about whether the club might retool, but Baker Mayfield’s MVP-worthy performance so far has them once again in contention.
With injuries once again hampering the offence, Mayfield is delivering the best stretch of football of his career — and doing it with the kind of command and confidence that once made him a No. 1 overall pick.
After throwing for 4,000-plus yards in back-to-back seasons, Mayfield is well on his way to more of the same, but what’s more impressive is the fact that he has just two interceptions through seven games.
Going into the season, Mayfield’s odds to win MVP were set at +3,000 and now he sits among the favourites at +425. There are certainly some questions as to whether he can keep operating at this level with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans dealing with injuries, but the emergence of rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka has kept this offence going.
Can it last? The biggest question is whether losing Evans likely for the rest of the season, combined with a tough schedule ahead featuring games against the Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams, is going to bring this team back down to earth.
Their 24-9 loss to the Detroit Lions on Monday night was worrisome. Egbuka was held in check, and an inability to rely on their run game put a lot of pressure on Mayfield, who was sacked a season-high four times. Defensively, after starting the season strong against the run, the unit allowed a season-high 164 yards rushing.
Underachiever: Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens were built to be a perennial Super Bowl contender led by Lamar Jackson, who once again entered the season as an MVP favourite. The defence looked loaded, and the AFC North was still their division to lose.
Unfortunately, this has been a season of misery, facing a real risk of missing out on the playoffs thanks to an injury to their best player.
With Jackson dealing with a right hamstring injury, the team has been unable to sustain drives and finish in the red zone. Backup Cooper Rush and third-stringer Tyler Huntley led the team to score a combined 13 points in the two full games Jackson missed.
The system, built to maximize Jackson's dual-threat ability, simply cannot function with a traditional drop-back passer. Running back Derrick Henry can only do so much when teams are loading up the box in order to avoid giving up big runs.
While the absence of their MVP has hurt them in a big way, Baltimore's defence has completely imploded. Injuries to key defenders like Roquan Smith and Chidobe Awuzie haven’t helped, but seeing how far they’ve fallen remains eye-opening. The Ravens' struggles on defence have them ranked near the bottom of the league in nearly every key defensive metric, including points allowed and total yards allowed per game.
Seeing this team trail the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC North, given how those teams’ respective seasons are trending, should cement the Ravens’ status as one of the league’s biggest disappointments so far.
Overachiever: San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have spent the better part of the last few years redefining what “next man up” means. Given the off-season departures and the growing list of injuries, it’s been impressive to see them remain competitive so far this season.
The team was looking to rebound from a brutal 6-11 season that was well below the standard and looking to show that it was a one-off tough year. Going into the season, there was no surprise to see this team projected to get at least 10 wins once again, but there were still question marks.
Moving on from Deebo Samuel took away another weapon from the offence, which was already without Brandon Aiyuk, who has been trying to work his way back from a serious knee injury. They lost or moved on from five starters on defence, including Charvarius Ward, Dre Greenlaw, Javon Hargrave and Maliek Collins, and didn’t have a lot of cap space to find replacements.
The 49ers once again have had to find a way to overcome injuries, with Purdy sidelined for the past five games with a toe injury, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are done for the season, while Kittle recently returned. Despite all that, San Francisco is 5-2 to start the year, with backup quarterback Mac Jones collecting some nice performance bonuses and Christian McCaffrey looking like he’s back to his dominant self.
A healthy 49ers roster would definitely be capable of this type of performance, but with so many defensive stars sidelined and a brutal NFC West schedule ahead, sustaining this success will be a tall task.
Underachievers: Buffalo Bills
There’s no way around it — this has been a frustrating few weeks in Buffalo, a Super Bowl contender that now feels like a team showing some signs of regression.
Josh Allen started the year strong with a great performance against the Ravens, with over 400 yards combined through the air and on the ground. But after four straight games with 30-plus points against the New York Jets, Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints — who are in a race for the first overall pick — it’s been a tough stretch in back-to-back losses to the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons.
In those two losses, Allen has thrown four touchdowns and three interceptions, plus he was sacked four times by Atlanta — the most since Week 1 of 2023. He also has four fumbles through six games after committing just five all of last season.
The Bills have spent the past few seasons living in the “almost” category. This year, they haven’t looked like their usual self, and it doesn’t help that their reign in the AFC East is being challenged by New England.
Buffalo lacks a true star receiver and is one of nine teams without a passing touchdown on throws of at least 20 yards this season.
On defence, the lack of ability to contain the run is worrisome. The Bills’ 5.8 yards allowed per carry is the worst in the NFL this year. Granted, some of those numbers came against top running backs, but it’s a concerning trend that could cost Buffalo a top playoff seed.
Overachievers: Indianapolis Colts
Safe to say, Indianapolis has been one of the most impressive teams to start the season and their path there was something few saw coming.
It all started with the team’s one-year gamble on Daniel Jones, signed to a $14-million contract and named starter over Anthony Richardson.
Jones was released by the New York Giants and didn’t get a chance to play a snap with the Minnesota Vikings, who decided to add him as a depth option. Now, he’s led the Colts to a 6-1 record, rejuvenating the offence alongside Jonathan Taylor, who leads the NFL with 697 rushing yards and a league-high 10 touchdowns. The Colts own the best offence in football, averaging 33.1 points per game.
At no point has a Colts team in the Super Bowl era scored as many points than the 2025 squad has through the first seven games. Their 232 points scored through the first seven games this year are more than anything Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck had in the same timeframe.
Is the production sustainable?
Coming into the season, the knock on Jones was his athleticism and the fact that he owned the lowest big-time throw rate of any quarterback with at least 700 dropbacks since 2021, according to PFF.
Jones has played clean with the football after being prone to turning the ball over during his time with the Giants. It certainly helps that he’s been able to stay upright — he’s had six games in which he's taken one or fewer sacks and had a passer rating over 100.
The Colts’ offensive line is getting the job done with an NFL-best 2.5 per cent sack rate, giving him time to go for more big plays. Taylor, too, has benefited.
On the other side of the ball, the Colts defence has tallied 11 turnovers, which is tied for the third in the NFL, and boasts the seventh-best unit against the run. An area of concern is that the Indianapolis defence is ranked 29th in passing yards allowed per game, giving up an average of 255.4 yards through the air.
Underachiever: Miami Dolphins
Given all the promise surrounding the Dolphins — especially with their offensive firepower — a 1-6 record has the team in turmoil.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has back-to-back games with three interceptions, and he threw for just 100 yards against the Browns. Their only win this season has come against the lowly Jets.
Miami’s offence was seen as its biggest strength, but that appears to be going in the opposite direction, even more so since Tyreek Hill was lost for the season. It appeared that Jaylen Waddle was going to be able to step up as the top target, but he’s struggled to remain consistent, and there’s only so much De’Von Achane can do on his own.
On defence, we just watched Browns running back Quinshon Judkins run for three touchdowns, with the Dolphins unable to force a single turnover against a Cleveland team that had not scored more than 20 points in a game going into Week 7.
With the way this team has played, it seems inevitable that Mike McDaniel won’t last long as head coach, but will it stop there? Owner Stephen M. Ross reportedly isn’t ready to hand out pink slips, but if this team continues to underachieve, he won’t have a choice.
Overachiever: Seattle Seahawks
In a division that features the 49ers and Rams, the Seahawks are always in a battle to stand out in the NFC West. Trading DK Metcalf and Geno Smith in the off-season felt like a signal that this was a team in transition, given how important both were to their success last year.
They made a highly scrutinized decision to sign Sam Darnold to a three-year, $100.5 million contract that includes $37.5 million in guaranteed money for 2025 despite a tough finish to his time with the Minnesota Vikings.
So far, the numbers are strong. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is leading the NFL in receiving and their defence is sixth in the NFL in points allowed per game.
There are a few red flags going forward with Seattle, though. The offence’s heavy reliance on Smith-Njigba suggests a lack of depth options. And against a top defence in the Texans, they had to overcome four turnovers and converted only twice out of 14 times on third down, but still got the win. Can they get away with that consistently?
Is Darnold capable of putting up a big performance when the lights are at their brightest? History suggests that while Darnold can shine in spurts, playoff success remains uncharted territory.
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