On Sunday, the teams that’ll play in Super Bowl 60 will be decided as the Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks host the Los Angeles Rams.
Of the four teams left, the Seahawks have the best Super Bowl odds at +150, while the Broncos are the longest at +1300.
The biggest storyline heading into this weekend is that, in the AFC Divisional Round, Broncos starting quarterback Bo Nix broke his ankle, and he’s out for the season. Jarrett Stidham, a former fourth-round pick by the Patriots in 2019, will start with the season on the line.
Below, I’ll provide a prediction for the AFC and NFC Championship games.
Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots
While the Broncos may have a backup QB out there, I’m not going to write them off and predict the Patriots win running away.
Stidham not only has head coach Sean Payton behind him, but perhaps the best defence in the NFL.
The last time Stidham made a start was Week 18 of the 2023-24 NFL season. In that game, he completed 58.8 per cent of his passes for 272 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in a loss to the Las Vegas Raiders.
However, while he may be facing a tough Patriots defence, something that could help him hang around is the Patriots’ offence.
Second-year QB Drake Maye hasn’t exactly been on his A-game the last two weeks. In the wild-card round and the AFC Divisional matchup, Maye combined for 33 of 56 passing (58.9 per cent) for 447 yards, four touchdown passes, two interceptions and four turnover-worthy plays.
Going further, in those same two games combined, he had 72 total dropbacks and was pressured 22 times. He completed five of nine passes for 109 yards, one touchdown, zero interceptions and his four turnover-worthy plays came against pressure.
That’s the concern for me, as the Broncos lead the league in pressures with 292, and when they put opposing QBs under duress, they’ve completed 44.3 per cent of their passes, with three touchdowns and nine interceptions.
I expect this to be a low-scoring game, and while I predict the Patriots ultimately get the win, I wouldn’t be surprised by a 17-14 final score.
PREDICTION: Broncos +5 (-110)
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Seahawks will be without running back Zach Charbonnet, who tore his ACL, in their third matchup of the year against the Rams.
The combined score from the two regular-season meetings was 58-57, in favour of the Rams.
In the most recent meeting, Week 16, the Rams lost 38-37 in overtime. That game included a punt return touchdown by Seattle wide receiver Rashid Shaheed, who also returned the opening kickoff in the NFC Divisional game against the San Francisco 49ers.
These teams are evenly matched; the Seahawks are second in the NFL in pressures (277), and the Rams are third (274).
When under duress, here are the stat lines for both Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford and Seahawks QB Sam Darnold:
• Stafford: 46.7 per cent completion rate, 1,215 yards, eight touchdowns, one interception and 13 turnover-worthy plays.
• Darnold: 52 per cent completion rate, 955 yards, 11 touchdowns, eight interceptions and 10 turnover-worthy plays.
Additionally, here’s how each quarterback performs against Cover-3, as both teams primarily play that coverage:
• Stafford: 69.9 per cent completion rate, 1,799 yards, 11 touchdowns and four interceptions
• Darnold: 66.3 per cent completion rate, 1,526 yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions.
I’ll take the points with the Rams and their probable NFL MVP, Stafford.
Sidenote: Based on the +100 odds on the 2.5-point spread, this may go out to a 3-point spread soon.
PREDICTION: Rams +2.5 (+100)
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