While the playoffs have dominated the on-field news in the NFL over the last month, the biggest story off the field has been the uncertainty around the future of Houston Texans star quarterback Deshaun Watson.
On Thursday, after endless speculation, news broke that Watson has requested a trade from the team that drafted him 12th overall in 2017. In fact, reports indicate the 25-year-old actually made the request "weeks ago."
Watson may have made such a request, but getting out of Houston may not come all that easy. According to The Houston Chronicle, the Texans don't want to trade their superstar quarterback and intend to attempt to repair the broken relationship between the two sides.
Given that the franchise is reluctant and Watson is a top-five quarterback in the NFL, you can guarantee the Texans will not let the three-time Pro Bowler go for any less than the team feels is market price – and that price is undoubtedly sky high. Further complicating matters is Watson just signed a four-year, $156-million contract last September that includes a no-trade clause and cap hits above $40 million in both 2021 and 2022.
So a trade will have to meet the Texans' desire for return, be to a destination Watson prefers, and include a team capable of taking on his contract.
Which teams could make a play for Watson in the coming weeks? We've gone to the odds to pick out the favourites to acquire the star signal-caller this off-season, and broken down the potential of a trade for each.
New York Jets
The Odds: +200
The Fit
The rebuilding Jets make a lot of sense as a top contender for Watson, and have been gaining momentum on the odds over the last few days.
New York is in need of a change at quarterback as Sam Darnold’s time in the Big Apple is likely done, plus the team has the draft picks and cap space to make the acquisition work. Watson would give New York the franchise-changing quarterback the team has been in search of for decades. Yes, the Jets have a lot of question marks all over the field but acquiring Watson makes the answers to those questions much less pressing.
We do wonder about Watson’s fit with a franchise that has had its fair share of dysfunction. The quarterback’s current frustrations with Houston reportedly stem from issues with the front offence and ownership, and the Jets haven’t proven to be any more stable a franchise than the Texans.
But the recent hiring of Robert Saleh as head coach could be the game-changer here, as recent reports suggest Watson wanted the Texans to interview the ex-49ers defensive coordinator and favours playing for Saleh.
The Capital
The Jets have plenty of it. They own the No. 2 and No. 23 picks in the first round of the 2021 draft, and have the type of cap space needed to take on a contract like Watson’s.
A deal with the Jets could make sense for Houston, too. If the No. 2 pick were to be included in a New York-Houston trade involving Watson, the Texans would theoretically be able to select Watson’s replacement in this upcoming draft should one of the available quarterbacks appeal.
Miami Dolphins
The Odds: +400
The Fit
The Dolphins are the team that has probably been the most discussed as a potential destination. First, they popped up after a report from ESPN’s Chris Mortensen a couple of weeks ago that Watson was open to the idea of a move to South Beach, and would consider waiving his no-trade clause. As recently as Wednesday, the Miami Herald has reported “chatter” around this week’s Senior Bowl with the Dolphins being “seen as the frontrunner behind the scenes.”
Miami is an intriguing, if not head-scratching, possibility for two reasons. The first one is directly related to fit, so we’ll address that here and circle back to the second reason in the next section.
The team drafted its apparent franchise quarterback last spring when it took Tua Tagovailoa at No. 5, benched Ryan Fitzpatrick in the midst of a winning season to get Tua into games as a rookie, and then GM Chris Grier committed to Tagovailoa as the team’s 2021 starter after the regular season came to an end.
As the Dolphins’ roster is constructed right now, Watson doesn’t make much sense because of Tagovailoa’s spot in it, but some reports, such as Mortensen's, have indicated Tua could be part of a Watson deal with Houston should both sides be interested.
The Capital
The second reason a trade between Miami and Houston for Watson is weird yet intriguing is that, presumably, any potential deal would likely involve the No. 3 selection in the upcoming draft – a pick that originally belonged to the Texans before being dealt to the Dolphins in the blockbuster Laremy Tunsil trade back in September 2019.
If Houston eventually concedes to trading away its franchise cornerstone at some point before the draft, what better way to ease the pain of doing so than by reacquiring the very high draft position it earned by being the league’s third-worst team this past season.
The Dolphins also have the No. 18 pick and could try to package that with Tagovailoa in a Watson deal, but it’s hard to imagine the Texans going for a trade that doesn’t include this spring’s No. 3 pick.
New Orleans Saints
The Odds: +800
The Fit
With Drew Brees’s retirement expected in the coming weeks, or even days, quarterback suddenly becomes a huge need for a team otherwise built to win right now. Aside from Brees, the Saints have Taysom Hill under contract through next season and Sean Payton reportedly wants to re-sign pending free agent Jameis Winston.
While there’s possible upside to both of those quarterbacks, Watson is leaps and bounds better than both. Hill is a Swiss Army knife-type player but is far from a well-rounded quarterback, and the last time Winston played a full season he threw 30 interceptions.
Yes, Watson’s Texans were 4-12 this past season but his 2020 stats were off the charts, and we can only imagine what he could do in a Payton offence with the likes of Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas at his disposal.
The fit for Watson in New Orleans may be a better one than any of these other teams, but could the Saints pull it off?
The Capital
We have our doubts. Not only do the Saints currently have just three picks in the upcoming draft – 28th overall being their biggest trade chip – but the team is in a tough spot salary cap-wise. General manager Mickey Loomis is going to have some tough decisions to make in order to get his team under the cap for next season without having Watson's contract on the books.
Given the lack of high-value draft picks and the salary cap circumstances, it’s probably unlikely New Orleans will acquire Watson and his growing cap hit – which is just under $16 million in 2021 but balloons to more than $40 million in 2022.
San Francisco 49ers
The Odds: +800
The Fit
It feels more than likely at this point that the 49ers will be in search of a new starting quarterback next season.
Questions have surrounded Jimmy Garoppolo’s future with the team for more than a year, and it would save the 49ers money to part ways with Garoppolo rather than actually keep him. Garoppolo’s cap hit for next season is $27 million while the dead cap penalty would be just $2.8 million if San Fran decides to go in a different direction.
From an on-field standpoint, Watson playing in Kyle Shanahan’s offence is one every football fan – maybe outside of the rest of the NFC West – would be excited to watch. With the weapons they have on offence and the dominant core players on defence, the 49ers would immediately return to being an NFC contender.
The Capital
San Francisco owns the 12th-overall pick in 2021, which in itself is likely not enough but could be coupled with another future high pick in a Watson deal.
Watson’s 2021 cap hit is more than $10 million less than Garoppolo’s for next season but, as we mentioned above, skyrockets in 2022. The 49ers are in a decent place when it comes to the salary cap at this point, so taking on Watson’s contract this season likely wouldn’t be a huge burden. However, GM John Lynch has key young players – Nick Bosa, Deebo Samuel and Fred Warner – who will soon be in need of new contracts and a big Watson cap hit would make re-signing all three extremely tough.
Given the situation, Matthew Stafford seems like a more plausible option for the 49ers at this point.
New England Patriots
The Odds: +900
The Fit
Making a big splash in the trade market would be an uncharacteristic move for Bill Belichick and the Patriots, but there's no doubt New England is an intriguing possibility for Watson.
Not only is the thought of what Belichick and Watson could accomplish over the next decade one that likely puts fear into the rest of league, but the Patriots desperately need an answer at quarterback after a tough year with Cam Newton under centre.
While Newton does take some of the blame for a passing game that struggled this past season, most of the issues came from a serious lack of playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. That would need to be addressed if Watson were to become a member of the Patriots.
The Capital
New England has the cap space to make some serious moves this off-season, something we're not used to seeing from the team as it's usually in perennial contender mode rather than rebuilding mode.
Another unfamiliar position we'll see New England in this off-season is in the top half of the draft, where it owns the No. 15 overall pick. A Watson trade would definitely need more than the 15th pick, so the Patriots would probably have to get creative here.
One more wrinkle: controversial Texans executive Jack Easterby reportedly has some issues with the Patriots, his former team, so we're unsure a deal could get done between these two sides.
Carolina Panthers
The Odds: +900
The Fit
The Panthers entered the picture to land Watson last week after NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport indicated they’re a team to “keep an eye on.”
From an on-field standpoint, the move makes sense. Yes, the Panthers have Teddy Bridgewater under contract for two more seasons – a deal that includes a cap hit of $23 million in 2021. However, Bridgewater’s deal also includes a potential out after next season that would only cost the Panthers $5 million in dead cap. Plus, Bridgewater was always viewed as a short-term solution until Carolina found a long-term answer under centre.
At just 25, Watson is undoubtedly a long-term answer if there ever was one. He’s already one of the best QBs in the game and has conceivably not yet reached his prime.
And the Panthers make for a mouth-watering on-field fit – can you imagine partnering Watson with Christian McCaffrey for the next half-decade? Not to mention what Watson could do with wide receivers DJ Moore, Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel.
The Capital
The Panthers hold the No. 8 pick in the 2021 draft, which isn’t as enticing as the Jets or Dolphins, but the inclusion of more first-rounders may be able to make up for that. Could Bridgewater also be a part of the discussion?
From a cap standpoint, new GM Scott Fitterer would need to make some roster moves to get under the cap with Watson on the roster but it's not out of the realm of possibilities.
